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No. of Recommendations: 6
Technology matters much more than government policy. Once technology drives down the cost sufficiently there is no stopping the innovation. In my view, EVs crossed the chasm in 2020 driven mostly by improving battery technology. We are seeing history repeat, as EVs become feasible hundreds of startups and ICE incumbents get on the band wagon and most will fail or will be absorbed by bigger players as happened last century. Since everyone has his favorite "Tesla Killer" Tesla is the horse to bet on in the automotive sector.

What makes Tesla early 2021 different from Ford early 1900 is that Tesla has another market, energy generation and storage, that Elon Musk says rivals in size the automotive market.

The other thing to take into account is that from June 2019 TSLA has risen from 40 to 840, a 20 bagger in 20 months, a CAGR of 536%. That is simply not a sustainable growth rate. I got in in October 2020 and have a CAGR of over 1000%. As I transition to the Cathie portfolio I sold 84% of my TSLA and spread it into five other positions.

I believe TSLA will continue to outperform but not at 536% CAGR.

Denny Schlesinger
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