For the last week, I've been attempting to compile a list of the 10 top stocks that will dominate the next 10 years. I know many of you would say that with the technological changes today, trying to pick these stocks is next to impossible, nevertheless how about we give it a try. I've decided to leave the usual suspects off the list (those that have already established themselves as the dominant players, ie. Sun, Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, EMC, etc...). I'm looking for those companies that are emerging as the dominant players in fast growing markets with incredible potential. They do not necessarily have to be Gorilla candidates, a strong King (ex. JDSU) also has great potential. I've researched through magazines, reports, message boards and countless other resources and have attempted to narrow it down, here's the ten that I've settled on so far, the list is very tentative.Cree (CREE)Gemstar (GMST)Network Appliances (NTAP)JDS Uniphase (JDSU)Celera (CLA)Seibel Systems (SEBL)Broadcom (BRCM)Qualcomm (QCOM)Ballard Power (BLDP)Lernout & Hauspie (LHSP)LHSP is the only one that I'm not comfortable with at this moment since the promise of Speech recognition has been around for some time without explosive growth. I like the others but could be convinced otherwise depanding on responses. Here's some other potential candidates that I'm presently looking into.PMC SierraRF Micro DevicesRedback NetworksAribaBroadvisionArm HoldingCitrixI2 TechnologiesRambusInfospaceEchelonWind RiverYahooCMGIBrocadeCommerce OneFeel free to comment on these or any others that you feel could well dominate the next decade
How about considering Texas Instruments? DSP's are one of the fastest growing markets and TXN is by far the market leader. The following chart illustrates how TXN has performed over the last year compared to your "established" gorillas:http://quote.fool.com/chart/chart.asp?uf=0&time=8&maval=0&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptick=csco+intc+sunw+emc&symbols=TXN&currticker=TXN&submit1=Draw+Chart
Wow, I can see leaving off Microsoft due to all the uncertainty, but where is Cisco and Intel? It's possible you consider Intel too mature, but Cisco? They are the internet.I'm assuming you're looking for 10 COMPANIES that will dominate, as opposed to 10 STOCKS that are young up and comers.I would also consider adding NTAP to that list.Maverick
Oops, NTAP is already there. Sorry.
In response to gbaker's comment about TI: I completely agree that TXN is the king of DSP's, which is one the fastest growing segments of the semiconductor industry. Although it has reinvented itself, I still consider it a mature king. Not only am I looking for companies that are the most dominant, but also those that have the most room to grow (which is why I left off Oracle, one of my favourite companies). TI's market value is presently $140 billion, while I have no doubt that they will continue to grow, there is a question as to whether they can keep up at this pace. Perhaps we should look at Arm Holding (ARMY), from whom TI licenses their DSP technology. In response to the comment about Cisco, I left it off the list simply because of valuation. It is without a doubt one of the best companies in the world, but can it continue to grow at this incredible pace. If it's share price simply doubled it would be worth $1 trillion. Can someone let me know if they believe that Cisco can continue to dominate as competition from the likes of Juniper, Redback, Nortel, Lucent and countless startups continue to heat up? If it can, then yes, the company should be added to the list but what should be removed?In light of the recent unfavourable article from Tom's Hardwarehttp://www6.tomshardware.com/mainboard/00q1/000315/index.htmlcould someone please comment on the future potential of Rambus. The reason I left it off the list was due to some unflattering articles, its reliance on Intel (which I believe could crush the Rambus at will) and the emergence of new technologies that could challenge the present standard such as MAGRAM and others. your comments are appreciated.Matt
I would add the following dominators:BEAS, CTXS, INKT, NOK, TIBX, PUMA, VRTS and VRSN.Happy domination!Hjelmerus
In light of the recent unfavourable article from Tom's HardwareEVERYONE STOP LISTENING TO TOM'S HARDWARE! Their is no credible Gorilla info coming from that site. Their never has been. Check out the sale of the 820 chip instead, pipeline of new contracts, partnerships, etc, if any.The other points Matt made about overreliance on Intel and emergence of new technologies are relevant in Gorilla terms. I won't comment and leave the DD up to you. But Tom's Hardware is not a place to conduct effective DD on Rambus.Tinker
I would have to include Nortel (NT). They are establishing an excellent market share with a keen eye on the future.phil.
oops, jumped the gun with the last post. two more that come to mind are HGSI and PEB. Bioinformatics Technology is going to be big time as soon as 5 years down the line. NTAP also deserves consideration, moreso than EMC i think at this point. ERICY is another one that pops up.phil.
Intel could crush RMBS at will.Remember however, they have designed RMBS support right into their chipset.Would you, if you were INTEL undergo re-design re-testing, etc. when you have a product that you know will scale to 3.2G. I even believe I saw 6.4G somewhere.Right now, at least RMBS gives Intel a head start over AMD IMO on chip to memory performance. They would not give this away lightly.I have no idea what the other memory is that you mentioned. But Rambus license is on chip to memory interface. Someone please comment on what this other memory is, and whether or not Rambus patents might apply.Remember, we still have not seen a verdict on Hitachi lawsuit. If this settles in RMBS favor, type of memory may be irrelevant.Speculation, but the longer it takes Hitachi to reply to Rambus charges, the more likely a deal is in the works. Comments on this legal aspect Tinker?
Y2Krash mentioned these 10 stocks:Cree (CREE)Gemstar (GMST)Network Appliances (NTAP)JDS Uniphase (JDSU)Celera (CLA)Seibel Systems (SEBL)Broadcom (BRCM)Qualcomm (QCOM)Ballard Power (BLDP)Lernout & Hauspie (LHSP)And a list of others:PMC SierraRF Micro DevicesRedback NetworksAribaBroadvisionArm HoldingCitrixI2 TechnologiesRambusInfospaceEchelonWind RiverYahooCMGIBrocadeCommerce OneOther posters chimed in with various picks and suggestions.Feel free to comment on these or any others that you feel could well dominate the next decade.I was just curious if, after having read the gorilla game book and knowing the criteria - how many of the stocks listed above do you or others see as being smack dab in the middle of a gorilla game and how many do you see in a royalty game? How many are in a Godzilla Game? How many are in none of those three games?That's an impressive list of stocks and I own quite a few of them, but I think we should stay on track and digest such a plethora of opportunity so that each and every investor on this message board understands the implications of each and understands the market place that their products participate.In your list of ten for the next decade, at least five and perhaps seven of them are not in a gorilla game. Yet, there seems to be about five (maybe more) in the 'second' list you provided which I see in a gorilla game - if not the emerging gorilla itself. If this was true, I was curious how they could be left out of the picture for the next decade in terms of dominating. I'm not saying a royalty play is not a good investment. I own plenty of them, but if I was going to narrow it down to must have dominant companies to own for the next decade - believe me - I would be touting as many that fit the gorilla criteria as I could.BB
Thanks for the response BB, this is the kind of responses that I'm looking for. I tried to find the stocks that I believed had the most market opportunity in the future as well as the best position to capitalize on that opportunity. I consider SEBL the only established Gorilla while CREE, GMST, NTAP and QCOM (BLDP and LHSP have potential) are emerging Gorilla's. Which one's from my other list would you consider Gorilla candidates (you said at least five), I would consider Rambus, I2, Citrix, Echelon and perhaps Arm Holdings as potential candidates. I don't have time at the moment to backup my statements, so you'll just have to take it at that. Could you or someone else make a suggestion about not only which stock should be added to the list but also which should be removed.Matt
Matt,I don't see CREE or NTAP in anything but a royalty game. Gemstar is combination game of gorilla, godzilla and perhaps even royalty in the eBooks division. I'm still sitting on the fence about the fuel cell industry. Although some interesting presentations have been made on LHSP - I'm not ready to make a decision yet in terms of this as a gorilla play. Qualcomm and Siebel I am in agreement. The stocks from your second list that I see in a gorilla game include, but are not limited ot Rambus, i2, Echelon, Citrix and Brocade.If you look at the market caps, Rambus, Echelon and Brocade are the smallest. Rambus is around $8 Billion along with Brocade and Echelon is the smallest of the group with a $2.8 Billion market cap. Mike Buckley knows much more about the game that Citrix is playing than I do as it is not a company I follow.Those are my thoughts.BB
Bruce,I have noticed in other posts that you seem bullish on RBAK, I was curious as to its omission in your last response.What place do you see RBAK as taking in its industry, as far as GG analysis is concerned?Would love to hear your thoughts on RBAK's GG status, and who, if anyone, is positioned better than they are.Thanks for any replies, by Bruce or others,Aridian
No comments on the legal aspects. I haven't seen the pleadings, am not a sufficient expert to judge the patents. What I have seen is a general attitude that RMBS will win this suit. And a value chain which is acting as if the patents are very solid. So that is what I am basing my confidence on.Tinker
i count more gorillas in the top 10 than you do BBcree -- probable gorillagmst -- gorillantap -- possible/probable/emergent gorillaJDSU -- Strong King/hints of gorillanessCRA -- BioTech Gorilla (the MSFT of biotech)SEBL -- GorillaBRCM -- Strong King/hints of gorillanessQCOM -- GorillaBLDP -- Gorilla if you believe the storyLHSP -- possible emergent Gorilla in an exploding industry. OK, so you can't cash in probables. but goddamned if that doesn't look like my entire holdings, cept for bldp and add elon and rmbs
cree -- probable gorilla gmst -- gorilla ntap -- possible/probable/emergent gorilla JDSU -- Strong King/hints of gorillaness CRA -- BioTech Gorilla (the MSFT of biotech) SEBL -- Gorilla BRCM -- Strong King/hints of gorillaness QCOM -- Gorilla BLDP -- Gorilla if you believe the story LHSP -- possible emergent Gorilla in an exploding industry. OK, so you can't cash in probables. but goddamned if that doesn't look like my entire holdings, cept for bldp and add elon and rmbs Cree, NTAP, JDSU, Broadcom - not gorilla games unless you can prove otherwise. Full fledged royalty plays. Possible, probable not part of the gorilla game in terms of royalty games switching to 'gorilla games'. I strongly suggest sleeping with the book until it soaks in - and I mean that in the best of all possible ways, believe me. This is not to shoot down those non gorilla game stocks as investments, but let's call them what they are. I'm open to discussion, believe me.Biotech I toss out because it's biotech. I don't believe in applying a specialty criteria of high technology investing to another field. See the next paragraph.I'm on the fence in fuel cells and would like to hear why you think that the chasm has been crossed, the lead pin and others in the bowling alley knocked down, a value chain that has formed to create a tornado (hypergrowth) which has spawned the emergence of a gorilla which you name Ballard Power. This is a tricky game and we can't go bending rules. However, if we can have confirmation of the gorilla criteria to show that a company like Ballard or Plug or the others in the space indeed meet all the criteria - I'll consider it.Likewise, do we have the value chain which has created a tornado for Gemstar to have emerged as the gorilla? Believe me, I know things are in place and am also an investor, but can we say at this point - full fledged gorilla?That leaves Siebel and Qualcomm which I will agree are gorillas using the criteria.BBP.S. Sorry that your portfolio has been damned by God. <ggg>
GaryX,I am in agreement with you regarding most of the stocks on your list. However, there is one that just does not fit the criteria for what we are looking for here. I don't see how you can place CRA on it. Where is the discontinuous innovation that CRA has created? Where are there earnings? (They lost $ 1.19/share last quarter)? What about their CAP and GAP? And, what about the weather report for this company? (There was rain and fog after the past weeks selloff due to clinton/blair statements and misunderstanding).I think what CRA is doing is very exciting. It should be rewarding to humanity and investors of their company. However, investor excitement does not translate into potential gorillahood without the basics. Ultimately, it has to be the consumers of the discontinuous innovation creating that power.You do have an exciting portfolio of companies <g>Hack
Bruce,I'll take the position that part of Cree's business is a Gorilla Game. Cree has a propiretary, open technology that "grows" SiC in commercial quantities and qualities. I haven't studied the company enough to know the exact status of that product adoption. However, Cree is adding capacity exponentially because it can't meet demand for the raw SiC product. If I understand that correctly, the tornado might be in place. That combined with Cree's dominance of the industry that grows commercially viable SiC might indeed already make Cree the Gorilla in that portion of their business model.I'm not suggesting that this makes Cree a pure-play Gorilla but the evidence does tell me that part of Cree's model is a Gorilla Game.--Mike Buckley
regarding ntap, cree, gmst, and jdsu, i was simply trying to communicate the mood of the gorilla hunters on G & K. Nobody can definitively determine gorillaness because nobody has that kind of authority, so all these things are in flux. There was just a huge argument in thefool about whether QCOM was a gorilla...read thru the G&K on SI and you'll see where I'm coming up with my thoughts. NTAP's moving in with a software product which may be its root to gorillahood, cree has a lock on the discontonuous innovation of Silicon Carbide, GMST is a gorilla waiting for the tornado to hit, JDSU has hundreds of patents and has been called a gorilla by Mr. Moore, etc. Now, these things may not be gorillas yet, but there are degrees, and there are maturation cycles, etc. Regarding CRA, if you believe you can't, under any circumstance, apply gorilla thoughts to biotech, then move on. Of all the biotechs however, an information lodestar which has first mover advantage on entire genomes, from human to fly to whatever, may just be indispensable to the field. If my looseness re: gorilla definition offends, I most humbly apologize. G
I'd like to take this chance to thank everyone once again for the great responses to my 10 stocks for the next ten years. After absorbing much of the feedback I have to concede that it is probably premature to name Ballard Power as one of the best stocks to hold for a decade. I think it might be a better idea to accompany the list of ten with a second smaller list of companies with potential to dominate but who's markets have yet to develop. This reasoning has also forced me to remove Lernout & Hauspie (LHSP)from the list. There are now two vacant spots that must be filled, after doing further research, I'm adding Echelon (ELON) to the list, for obvious reasons, and am leaning towards Redback Networks (RBAK), here's why: Over the next few years, the movement from low bandwidth analogue modems to high bandwidth connections will accelerate. These new connections will offer many new services such as voice-over-IP, on-demand movies, and virtual private networks. They will also require different types of service, important VoIP, for instance, will require more care than standard web traffic data. Distinguishing between so many different types of data will require a much more sophisticated system than those being used today. This is were Redback comes in, the company's subscription managers for broadband connections are much more powerfull than the present systems. It is already used to manage over 80% of DSL connections, the majority of Cable and should also dominate the wireless market. Service providers have used routers as the infrastructure to enable broadband service offerings. This is an inefficient way to handle broadband traffic. Routers can only handle several hundred subscribers and has limitations with regard to the number of technologies that service providers can offer. Redback's subscriber management system addresses the limitations of routers. It's Redback's product enables cable operators and service providers to connect and manage thousands of subscribers using different broadband technologies. Service providers can use Redback gear to offer DSL, then scale to offer cable. As a consequence, lower network operating costs are experienced with Redback equipment. AOL uses Redback's platform to manage its DSL subscribers that stem from its partnerships with GTE and Bell Atlantic. The merger between AOL and Time Warner should create an enormous opportunity for Redback, since AOL will want to upgrade its 20 million subscribers to broadband. This merger will accelerate AOL's plans. Perhaps the greatest allure to the Redback story is its recent acquisition of Siara Systems. The Siara acquisition dramatically expands the addressable market that Redback is targeting and will enable the combined companies to leverage Redback's existing customer relationships, sales force and research team. Siara is developing technology using fiber optics to manage Internet traffic. Networks that use photons to deliver traffic are inherently faster than networks that use electrons. This technology will enable service providers to re-architect their networks to support multi-service platforms. By offering both leading edge optical transport and Internet protocol routing, customers can expect significant cost savings. By combining technology, Redback is increasing the market for its products dramatically. Industry research predicts that the market for New Access Network equipment (Siara's market) will exceed $20 billion by 2001. The market for Redback's subscriber management products is only around $2 billion. Since these products are meant for the "edge" of a fiber optic network, and not its "core," Reback does not intend to compete head-to-head with IP and SONET equipment makers such as Cisco and Tellabs, but rather go after secondary markets of theirs. Redback received possibly the best compliment any networking company could hope for when Cisco's CEO John Chambers named it as one of three companies that Cisco fears. Now if that's not big potential, I don't know what is. Besides even if Cisco decided that it would be better to acquire Redback than compete with it, I don't think anyone would complain.So here is the updated list:Cree (CREE)Gemstar (GMST)Network Appliances (NTAP)JDS Uniphase (JDSU)Celera (CLA)Seibel Systems (SEBL)Broadcom (BRCM)Qualcomm (QCOM)Echelon (ELON)Redback Networks (RBAK)Note:Ballard Power (BLDP) and Lernout & Hauspie (LHSP) have been removed.Let me know what you think of my decision or if you have any other comments or recommendations.ThanksKrash
Just to clear something up, I don't necessarily consider Redback a gorilla, although 80% of a market is quite dominating. I don't foresee extremely high switching costs for their technology so it's probably a Godzilla in the making. As for Echelon, my opinion is with the majority on this board in saying that ELON has a great chance at becoming a gorilla in the near future. Can someone back me up on this statement?Krash
Y2Krash,I suggest you go to Vcall and listen to an interview with the CEO of RBAK. He claims that once in the system you pretty much are stuck with RBAK. High switching costs. As regard to Siara, I haven't a clue. That may be a Royalty game.Tinker
This has been a good thread, would anyone be able togive an approximation of where these companies liein terms of timeframes ? Eg Just out of the tornado,solid mature gorilla etc ?I know it may be difficult since some of these companies are in totally new first time technologies.Lennard
Tinker, what do you think of the two new picks, I take it you're a fan of Redback but what about Echelon? Just the fact that they're partnered with Cisco gives them instant credibility.Krash
Finally!Some people on this board are finally addressing why RBAK is so highly touted.I have heard much about the stock, but not much in the reasons behind its (future) success capability.I also am very much looking forward to hearing comments on ELON per a GG perspective, with a small twist....Can someone address the incredible year-to-date rise of ELON and explain why or why not it is too late to enter the ELON market. I am not referring to timing as far as "do I wait for a drop?" I am referring more to "400% is phenomenal for a 3-1/2 year return, let alone a 3-1/2 month return, so have we missed the expected gains from this stock becoming a Gorilla?"I appreciate any and all replies,Please do not ignore my post...I am very sensitive about that kind of thing.Thanks,IgnoredFoolYap
<< If my looseness re: gorilla definition offends, I most humbly apologize. >>For the Gorilla suffering looseness, well, my mother used to say that bananas are "binding". ;)rex
Most of the guys here might have seen this some time ago, some new posters will benefit from this site and some very organized reading. I consider it very helpful when I open my mouth to say "gorilla". The silicon investor forum for gorillas, kings et all: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=25851Some general definitions on who is who and what is what: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=7991640Finally the king and gorilla port from SI: These are the big caps:http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio/detail.gsp?pid=4789377And the small cap version:http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio/detail.gsp?pid=4969354I believe this is very organized.Agustin(who thinks that LHSP and ELON have hairy knuckles)
Mike wrote:I'll take the position that part of Cree's business is a Gorilla Game. Cree has a propiretary, open technology that "grows" SiC in commercial quantities and qualities. I haven't studied the company enough to know the exact status of that product adoption. I'm not suggesting that this makes Cree a pure-play Gorilla but the evidence does tell me that part of Cree's model is a Gorilla Game.Thanks Mike. I turned off the CREE radar long ago on the SI thread as my interest was not raised enough to warrant investment. I must have missed out on that conclusion being drawn and apologize for misrepresenting anything.BB
So here is the updated list:Cree (CREE)Gemstar (GMST)Network Appliances (NTAP)JDS Uniphase (JDSU)Celera (CLA)Seibel Systems (SEBL)Broadcom (BRCM)Qualcomm (QCOM)Echelon (ELON)Redback Networks (RBAK)I hope you are right because I own all 10. By the way, Celera's symbol is CRA, not CLA.
Cree (CREE)Gemstar (GMST)Network Appliances (NTAP)JDS Uniphase (JDSU)Celera (CLA)Seibel Systems (SEBL)Broadcom (BRCM)Qualcomm (QCOM)Echelon (ELON)Redback Networks (RBAK)I hope you are right because I own all 10. By the way, Celera's symbol is CRA, not CLA.As long as you're correcting things, we should probably change Seibel to Siebel.... <ggg>I neglected to mention in my previous response that I do indeed like Redback Networks - a lot - for aggressive growth investors. It certainly is a company that warrants study.Your ten stocks look pretty good. They many not all end up 'ruling the world', but the collective basket looks poised to offer you excellent returns over the next 5 to 10 years. You'll probably do best if you just leave it alone and let time do its magic.BB
Sorry about the spelling mistakes, I guess my hands are faster than my brain :)Thanks for all the help, now its on to world domination!Krash
Thank you for initiating a most interesting and informative thread.Your final portfolio is indeed formidable - I would like to see a Mutual Fund do better. I also have a bit of Nortel (bought at a discount through BCE)which I believe has some similar properties and falls in some of the same categories as your list. How would people on the board rate NT? I have to add that I have agonized over buying every single company on your list, (those I don't already own, that is) and smack myself in the nose ever time I see them go up. But, this is still a handsome collection of companies that WILL MAKE LOTS OF MONEY, and remain worthy of investment.Once again, thanks for the great thread.John
Malandros Wrote:Thank you for initiating a most interesting and informative thread.Your final portfolio is indeed formidable - I would like to see a Mutual Fund do better. I also have a bit of Nortel (bought at a discount through BCE)which I believe has some similar properties and falls in some of the same categories as your list. How would people on the board rate NT? I have to add that I have agonized over buying every single company on your list, (those I don't already own, that is) and smack myself in the nose ever time I see them go up. But, this is still a handsome collection of companies that WILL MAKE LOTS OF MONEY, and remain worthy of investment.Once again, thanks for the great thread.John Thanks for the vote of confidence, I'm also a big fan of Nortel. Unfortunately, they don't fit into my current portfolio of the 'top stocks for the next ten years' since it's one that I consider already matured. That's not to say that there isn't still plenty of growth left, Nortel is the leader in fiber optics and has taken a Cisco like strategy to continue its domination (ie. making acquisitions). It would have to be considered as a King but should still have a great future. Nortel has also hinted that it might spin off its Optics components business (a la JDS Uniphase) in order to unleash its hidden value. This portion of Nortel's business has about the same level of sales and growth rate as JDSU. Since JDSU has a market cap of 100 billion dollars, this move could be very profitable.If you're looking for the cheapest way to buy Nortel, just buy Teleglobe (NYSE: TGO), it's a Montreal based Communicationc company that is being bought by BCE. Teleglobe is trading at a discount to the BCE offering price so you're shares will get a boost from that merger and BCE is trading at a discount to its proposed spinnoff price of Nortel which will give the shares yet another boost when that happens. Look into it, it could be easy money.Krash
I am in agreement with you regarding most of the stocks on your list. However, there is one that just does not fit the criteria for what we are looking for here. I don't see how you can place CRA on it. Where is the discontinuous innovation that CRA has created? Where are there earnings? (They lost $ 1.19/share last quarter)? What about their CAP and GAP? And, what about the weather report for this company? (There was rain and fog after the past weeks selloff due to clinton/blair statements and misunderstanding).I don't think he ever said CRA was a gorilla, just that it was poised to change the world. I agree with that sentiment. I look at instances of alzthiemers (sp?), MS, and adult diabetes in my family, then I look at my two young boys and wonder . . . Will they live a healthy productive and active life? CRA is bringing us the promise that we'll be able to ID the potential for problems, and to head them off. I'm excited. I'm also long on CRA.Bill
Hi justphilIn the recent Rule Breaker seminar, participants believe PEB and NYE have "tweened" each other, i.e., offered a viable business alternative to the other.Harold
Hi Agustin/wildstreet:I'm not sure LHSP is growing any hair on his knuckles yet, but with the recent purchase of Dragon (their main US competitor) and recent teaming with MSFT (maybe a good thing) I think either his arms are lenghtening or his moat is getting a little deeper. This depends on the proprietary control of the technology. Interesting to watch.Harold
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