No. of Recommendations: 2
B&H can out-perform MT (market timing). The opposite is also true. It all depends on one's entry/exit rules and look-back periods. 

The test period is Jan '85 to Aug '18. The trading vehicle is SPY. Buy when Price > SMA.  Go to cash on opposite.

Frankly, I'm surprised at how well using longer MAs did. But I shouldn't have been, 
because my results replicate those reported by Stein and DeMuth in their book, Yes, You Can Time the Market

I used the back-tester at https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com
--------------------		
			
	B&H = 97.7				
SMA	Trade Occurs	Price is 		
MONTHS	At Signal	EOD 	Next Close	
10			68.7	86.1	
11			74.7	91.3	
12			86.1	107.0	
15			126.4	113.8	
18			128.5	116.2	
21			104.4	100.6	
24			64.6	73.9	
					
	B&H = 97.7				
SMA	Trade Occurs	Price is		
MONTHS	Weekly		EOD  	Next Close	
6			47.1	54.6	
9			50.2	59.8	
12			106.9	88.7	
15			124.9	102.6	
18			125.5	125.8	
21			115.3	133.8	
24			75.3	73.3	
					
	B&H = 97.7				
SMA	Trade Occurs	Price is		
MONTHS	Monthly		EOM  	Next Close	
6			90.9	88.8	
9			144.1	132.8	
12			139.9	129.2	
15			116.7	122.4	
18			131.1	138.2	
21			128.7	125.2	
24			75.6	75.3	
					
	B&H = 97.7				
SMA	Trade Occurs	Price is		
MONTHS	BiMonthly	EOM  	Next Close	
3			56.5	61.3	
6			108.8	115.3	
9			135.4	131.7	
12			129.8	127.5	
15			115.0	112.7	
18			130.6	124.9	
21			145.7	140.5	
24			101.7	97.1	
27			92.5	83.8	
					
					
	B&H = 97.7				
SMA	Trade Occurs	Price is		
MONTHS	Quarterly	EOMh  	Next Close	
9			88.6	82.0	
12			100.8	93.9	
15			123.4	122.2	
18			137.0	137.1	
21			129.2	123.8	
24			91.3	85.9	
					


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