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Thank you for a very interesting post.

I would guess that you have read a great deal of information regarding oil consumption and where oil ends and perhaps where alternative energy sources begin. My understanding is world consumption is over 75 million barrels per day and growing at somewhere around 1.8 per cent this year and will go higher when Asian Pacific economies recover.

The question I am forever trying to answer is how much new production becomes available each year versus how much pooped out production goes off line. I know the gap between what is immediately available and how much is actually produced has been narrowing for several years. There are only a few countries producing less than what they could produce if the "tap" was turned on full right now and some of them have backed off because of the threat from Saudi that if they don't, they might wish they had. I am confused about why Saudi would have this attitude as it seems to me that within a few short years the world will need all the oil it can get. I have read a number of conflicting articles on the subject of when the critical oil shortage will begin.
By throwing out the most radical of predictions "both long and short" I come up with a guess of about 5 years if we keep searching and drilling at today's pace or faster.

Would you care to make a guess based on your information?
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