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Thank you for these links, Ears, and I have been studying this revaluation effort.

For me, value means "risk-out". Like everything else in investing, it's often tough to tell whether the risk has come off a particular company, or if the risks are just less visible and deeper.

The title of this post "Growth Meets Value" is essentially that.

Take SNOW for instance: highly regarded and now below its IPO price. So how exactly is The Market valuing it? Contrast with ZM or ADBE (thanks, MisterFungi!). Hammered, yes. Because they have been valued in a similar way to SNOW. But there is a difference and that difference is that ZM and ADBE have GAAP earnings. So sure, intangibles are often expenses, and still ZM and ADBE show GAAP earnings. To me, that is what risk-out means.

For thirteen years of a secular bull market, the new valuation models have not been tested. That test may be going on right now. ZM and ADBE are now in my portfolio and I expect I'll add VEEV.

I think we are still in the tradable rally phase of a secular bear market. All of the best stocks will go on sale again when capitulation finally occurs. How low will SNOW go? No idea, but if it is viewed as something equivalent to ADBE and ZM (as in "reasonable valuations in a dinosaur's model"), then it's headed a LOT lower (I'm gonna put a marker down for future readers and suggest about $40, depending on how long capitulation takes). Since the day SNOW launched, few would ever suggest that it would sell for $112; the longer it flies high, then higher still, keeping it's growth promise in tact (and even improving on it), it would be a brave soul to bet on $112 ($40 anyone?).

So I'm down with the idea that there may be a new valuation paradigm, but until that paradigm is stress-tested, it's best to leave them all for those with longer timelines.

-Randy
long ADBE and ZM, though just with "nibbles" because as previously noted by others, both are still pretty richly valued...by dinosaur metrics.
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