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That is a pretty reasonable estimate. Intermediate term funds often have a duration between 4 - 5 while long term bonds funds commonly have a duration over 8.

The real question is what would be the driver for a 1% increase at any point along the curve. Are we going to see a steepening of the curve or is the bottom Fed Funds rate going to be pushed up? The third choice would be a ride by the bond vigilantes who up tell now have not made a move.

A 1% move in interest rates is coming but it appears to be later than sooner. Those not nimble enough to get out of they way may very well take a sever beating. When the drubbing begins is beyond the capabilities of my crystal spheroid.

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