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That is only one of your predictions

This is my only prediction and I made solid money out of it. If you remember I acted upon this several months back and promptly posted on the boards. When oil touched $147, I sold most of my 5 years of holdings in oil and metals. 200-300% gain. Should have sold the rest too. TMFDeej and you had diagreed with my commodity bear case.

I do not short for a very simple reason. Shorting can give at the most 100% short term gains. Most stocks do not run to ground like LEH. I was looking at the most 40% profits which after the short term taxes will be worth <28%. I decided to spend my time in hunting for bargains in my 200+ stock portfolio. I don't make investment decisions on my own and use TMF extensively. Had Fool Pro been around for a while I would have used that newsletter to short and trade in options.

I was certain of a commodity meltdown but I had no idea of its depth. Commodities are currently selling at prices when oil was at $40. But oil is still 80+.

I predicted Dow at 7000 when Dow was 10.5K so only a few days ago. No time to short. IMO, DOW deserved to be at 11K when it was at 14K. I have invested in stocks that traded at P/E < 15 for a long time. I take only a starter position (few 100 dollars) in more expensive stocks. Add ons are almost always when P/E < 15.

I disagree with the notion of calling Buffet lucky. Information reduces risk and he studies companies for years before making a purchase. There are others at TMF who almost always make the right choice. Look at TMF1000 who retired at the age of 40, Bill Mann who made a killing in several of his ventures (read his interview). Look at Bills's personal portfolio. Superb choices for years capped with a BRKA. Read the earlier posts of Gardner brothers to get an idea of the killing they made in the stock market. Seth Jayson made the call for a collapse in 2007 and acted upon it and probably made a killing. All a product of exhaustive research and correct (not lucky) analysis. Reading all these people and the boards for so long gave me some foresight into making my decisions.

I am now out of my oil money. Did not sell any small caps but adding on to them and high yield stocks. This is the time to buy into some commodities. Hopefully in 5 years of time, I will make some money. My next prediction on a pessimistic note is DOW at 14K in 2018. If it happens earlier I will sell heavily and build a much large cash position for the crash.

Anurag
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