Skip to main content
No. of Recommendations: 3
The 2 FRED indexes are used to DISconfirm a recession. If both are positive YOY, then a recession is disconfirmed. If one or both are negative, then a recession is not disconfirmed.

So....if one or both are negative then you should obey any SMA sell signal, should one occur.

Note that "not disconfirmed" is not the same as "confirmed". The terminology is tricky, because our minds have a hard time grasping negatives. Which is the reason I spend hours and hours thinking it over, and wrote a computer program (a bash script, actually) to print & email me the outcome. Once you get the program right, it never gets confused or second guesses itself.
Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.