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No. of Recommendations: 3
The Berkeley study is particularly stupid. It took what a certain bunch of people did and demonstrated that they did not do it well. They also did this in a bull market, when buying and holding just about anyting worked.

The question is not what the "average investor" can do. Nobody with any sense wants to be "average". I cannot imagine why, when it comes to the stock market, people use phrases like "for the average investor...", as if they are trying to teach you to be average.

In any other discipline (if you call it a discipline), if you took a class and the instructor told you that his class would teach you to be "average", would you think your tuition was well spent? I certainly would not.

There are a number of ways to time the market which work overall. There is the stuff I do. Then consider the CANSLIM method, for example, which nobody here ever wants to discuss here. It is a particular discipline which provides superior results. But CANSLIM, like the other methods, requires some work, and people that are lazy are simply not interested in the work required.

So they are happy to be average, even if that means losing 40% or so. Then they get downright hostile when somebody points out that they did not have to do that. After all, it is not as if God said, "Well, it is time for everybody to start losing money, so here goes." He might have expected people to exercise their intelligence and get out of the way of the falling market just like they would get out of the way of a bunch of falling rocks. Only it is easier to get out of the market. You don't have to be in shape to run away.
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