No. of Recommendations: 14
I have occasionally posted a screen I made up a number of years ago that tracks ETFs that center on a specific country (and in a few cases, a region). Honestly, I have not paid it much attention lately as the past six months politics and central banks seemed to be moving markets far more than fundamentals. While much of the former is still around, some of these issues are a little closer to being resolved, and once everyone knows the playing field, markets can act a bit more normally. So, the screen, followed by comments:,AFK,ECH...,

Note that the screen opens with chartlets for each ETF, but you can click to see lists of other data. Also note that there are 3 pages in total to look through.

Disclaimer: I am no T/A wiz. Please feel to disagree with my take on this. Basically, I am listing countries who show a steady rise, or series of higher peaks since June. In June nearly all the world markets were hitting a bottom.

In no particular order, here are countries/regions that are currently looking very bullish:

South Korea
Israel (but note the rapidity of its rises and declines - what a photographer would call "high gamma". Is this term used in other graphs?)

These countries are maybes: not as clear an upward trajectory since June, but still meet the primary criteria:

Mexico: a lot of its rise occurred right after June, and growth has been slower since.
Singapore: similar to Mexico, plus a big drop in Fall.
Taiwan: very similar to Singapore.
France: good summer, shakier fall.

Bottom-Feeder Blue-Light Special:
Vietnam: It plunged down in May, then trended steadily down June through the start of Dec. It looks like it might have put in a bottom since it is currently about at previous resistance, but I would watch for it to clearly break that resistance before entering.

Many of these ETF's are Northern Europe, which got drug down by their Southern neighbors economic woes. A number of us were cautiously discussing European stocks 5 months back or so.... Did we inadvertently call a bottom (I do not remember anyone calling one, but I seem to recall that we noted that markets tend to bottom before the economy as they are (attempt to be?) forward-looking. Even now, though, I would be cautious of entering European waters. There is great potential there, but the issues Europe face have hardly gone away!

Most of the others listed (Except China) are smaller economies very much influenced by the rise and fall of China, the US, Japan, and Europe. I do not list the US as I track it pretty much through other means, but it has certainly been one of the stronger performers in the past couple of years.

Before the humbugs have at me, I will state that charts absolutely do not predict the future. However, they show trends. Trends are nothing more than mass behavior. Herd instincts, if you wish. Believe me, Indians, when wanting to shoot some buffalo, were well aware and utilized "trends" in buffalo herd movements to increase their effectiveness, even to the point of herding them off of cliffs (saved arrows!). The trick, of course, is to be the Indian, not the buffalo!

So, stating the above paragraph as a caveat, any trend can suddenly reverse itself. If it was this easy, everyone would be rich (but who would be the buyers when everyone wanted to sell?). And, of course, if you believe the world is falling into a recession in the next 6 months, trends today mean nothing.

Feel free to comment or contribute.


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