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The biggest lever in the model I built is the growth rate of MW installed. I think I was pretty harsh here, cutting it in half for each of four consecutive years. This covers a multitude of sins, to steal a phrase. Among these are changing gross margins (e.g. increases in panel costs that cannot be passed along to customers), failure to increase revenue by selling systems outright, pushback competition from utilities that cuts into the business, and so on. I have no idea how each of those might affect my numbers, so I lump them all into a single spot and try to be conservative there.

Hi Jim,

If it isn't too much work, how does reducing the "harshness" of this assumption impact the conclusions? What if it's only reduced by 1/3 per year, or 1/4? Does that have a material impact on the model's conclusion?

This is a really interesting conversation and company, by the way. I've thoroughly enjoyed this discussion.

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