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The brief analysis you offer on C, LL, MKL and so forth, may be correct or not, or may be correct in context...they may be highly relevant growth variables or interesting but not relevant.

These, and other..many other...factors are what professional stock-pickers do for their individual and institutional clients. This is your competition. The liklihood that you will consistantly out-pick the broad market is remote. To have even a chance to beat the odds, over time, you'd have to spend a great deal of your time on stock, industry, economic and market analysis...and be good at it.

I know its fun to try to pick stocks, and have bragging rights on those stocks you happened to hit right. Unfortunately if you are like most, you'll develop a defensive tactic of ignoring or rationalizeing your losses.

Your best alternative is to accept that you cannot out-pick your competition and that your best approach to long term investing is to asset allocate across 4 or 5 classes using index ETFs, and leave individual stock-picking to those who do it for a living, even though the majority cannot even out-perform even their own indexes.

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