Ok. It has been since February since i switched to our version of ARK investing. Totally bad timing. I switched and the rug was pulled right after.I feel very defeated about the switch. I know market in total has been in a frenzy but i see other portfolios i have on yahoo finance have recovered from the crash but my portfolio? mmmmm far from getting where i started the year at.Some of my holding are down more than 50%! 😕I wonder how to save myself from.this situation? Is there any point in holding when the stock keeps dropping more in value?What is your view on ARK and its holdings at this point?BellaPS. I jumped the ship and i am totally responsible. for my actions. just needing others opinion. 😊
I have 4 picks from the Captains Ark and am down on 3 of 4. But at least DMTK had good news today:https://investors.dermtech.com/news-releases/news-release-de...
I sold my 4 picks and bought TSLA and NVDA.
What is your view on ARK and its holdings at this point? Before answering that question I have to answer one you didn't ask. ;)One has to have conviction in one's positions. To misquote Philip Fisher, "Give your stocks a chance." What is your view on ARK and its holdings at this point? It has not changed. What has changed is the market's appetite for risky high growth stocks based on Powell Speak and interest rates. This is not an idle supposition. I keep track of over 50 stocks including some value stocks I no longer own but would if I were to switch back to value. Today's close: two indexes and four value stocks made all time highs, Ross Stores -- off-price retail, Old Dominion Freight -- less that truckload, and the two leading credit cards.Ticker Company – Index All time high Up $$$ Up %%%ROST Ross Stores, Inc. 129.07 2.20 1.73^GSPC S&P 500 Index 4,170.42 45.76 1.11V Visa Inc. 226.28 4.30 1.94MA MasterCard Inc. 386.49 8.17 2.16^DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average 34,035.99 305.10 0.90ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line 250.09 2.20 0.89If you need confirmation about how upside-down the market is, look at the three main indexes YTD:DJIA 11.2%SPX 11.0%NASDAQ 8.9%Denny -10.7%Compare their historic performance:30 years: https://softwaretimes.com/pics/indexes-30years.gifBut markets are not escalators to Financial Heaven, they are much more like roller coasters.Back during the dot com bubble I was following the guru of the day, George Gilder. He insisted that the Gilder Technology Report (GTR) was not investment advice which turned out to be true. The GTR had no exit strategy, when the bubble burst Gilder almost went bankrupt and I paid the highest tuition fee you can imagine, in banker speak, low seven digits... ouch!Between then and now I picked up some very important advice, own a sturdy portfolio. Sturdy means no margin, own stocks that will bounce back, and have an adequate reserve fund which I doubled in 2020, the last deposit on Feb 1, six months worth of ordinary expenses.The other difference is that unlike the GTR, ARK ETFs are investing quality advice. Gilder was only interested in the technologies, Cathie Wood wants to make money and not go bankrupt in the process.How much have your stocks fallen? None of mine have fallen by 50%, a common occurrence in high growth stocks. If you can't stand this kind of volatility then high growth is not for you, at least not so concentratedTicker P/LSPWR -43.3% <-- not ARKEVGN -38.0% XONE -37.1% BEAM -32.8% NNDM -29.2% ENPH -23.5% <-- not ARKTWST -21.4% FATE -21.3% PLTR -15.2% NTLA -9.9% ROKU -6.6% DMTK 2.4% <-- not ARKPACB 23.2% TSLA 72.4% ARK Invest does not just sit on their positions. They do quite a bit of trading to take advantage of whatever the market is offering. By quite a coincidence today I decided that I should not just be a bystander either. Today I sold covered calls on several of my positions. Generating cash is always a good idea. What I want to accomplish is to generate enough cash to cover my ordinary expenses so that there is no need for a fire sale of stocks.I wonder how to save myself from.this situation? Don't panic.Is there any point in holding when the stock keeps dropping more in value? Are these stocks loosing intrinsic value or is it just falling prices? I have often argued that the price you get is the value of the things you sell. What is the value of something you don't sell? It must be more than the market's going price as otherwise you'd be selling. But this is the ideal case. If you are strapped for money then you are at the mercy of the buyers. This is the reason for the large cash reserve, to be in control.The better question would be "is there any point in selling (besides easing the pain)? Is a market rotation the end of AI, EVs, genomics, etc.PS. I jumped the ship and i am totally responsible. for my actions. just needing others opinion. 😊 Sorry to hear that but The Captain's ARK accepts returning passengers! ;)Denny SchlesingerTalking about The Captain's ARK, the user registration and login code has taken me a lot longer than I counted on.
Ticker Company – Index All time high Up $$$ Up %%%ROST Ross Stores, Inc. 129.07 2.20 1.73^GSPC S&P 500 Index 4,170.42 45.76 1.11V Visa Inc. 226.28 4.30 1.94MA MasterCard Inc. 386.49 8.17 2.16^DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average 34,035.99 305.10 0.90ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line 250.09 2.20 0.89
DJIA 11.2%SPX 11.0%NASDAQ 8.9%Denny -10.7%
Ticker P/LSPWR -43.3% <-- not ARKEVGN -38.0% XONE -37.1% BEAM -32.8% NNDM -29.2% ENPH -23.5% <-- not ARKTWST -21.4% FATE -21.3% PLTR -15.2% NTLA -9.9% ROKU -6.6% DMTK 2.4% <-- not ARKPACB 23.2% TSLA 72.4%
I wonder how to save myself from.this situation?Sorry you feel that way, Bella.If by "this" you mean your current situation, it's too late. You now have 3 choices: Sell, Hold, or something in-between.If by "this" you mean the next time it happens (and it will) then I like the method used by a T/A expert at an investing site I recently joined. I "get" T/A and know some who make great use of it, but when I've tried to do it myself, I often come up with several different conflicting ways of interpreting moves, so without further study and learning, I can't do it. But this guy is incredible, hardly ever wrong and catches all the big moves right before they happen.Anyway, he doesn't buy a new position without a stop-loss order to accompany the position unless he's quite familiar with the company. Say he's buying a 1% starter position in something new and speculative. He would place a stop-loss order at maybe 5%, meaning he could lose 5% and then his position would be sold at market pricing. If it gains 5%, say, he might loosen the stop to 7%, and so on, until he's familiar enough with the company to have confidence that it won't suddenly drop through the floor, and then may eliminate the stop-loss order altogether. Or, if still flaky, he would just keep a stop-loss order on the position at a higher percentage of loss that is allowed.Some people think this is a chicken-$hit way to go, but I don't. It can sure save a lot of heartache when you're buying a speculative company for the first time. I've used the method, but very seldom; I figure if I don't know the company well enough to understand what they may do going forward, maybe I shouldn't have bought in the first place. But like all rules, I make exceptions when I think it will be to my advantage, and in this case, I can think of numerous "first buys" I've made where I wish I had used stop-loss orders. Dozens. Hundreds. Thoxxxx. Lots. :)Good luck, B & all,Dan
Great answer by the Captain, but I will chime in as well."I wonder how to save myself from this situation?"I finished the first iteration of my direct holdings portfolio in Feb 2020. Soon enough I was -30% from my cost basis, not from an ATH!I just held my highest conviction stocks and traded my lower conviction ones for great stocks on deep discounts. Ended the year +144% in that account after adding money over the rest of the year as well.Now I went south of 25% off ATH and with no real Plan Bs to sell, only sold a couple weaker Plan As and dumped in as much new money as I could.If the companies are fine themselves and these are LTBH, it is what it is. Btw, ARKF is doing pretty well since March 30 ended. It is a core holding in my 401k. The high growth stocks can fall quickly and lot but they can also rise like no others. For the more speculative or pre-revenue positions, I could go either way.On EDIT, I have no stops. On CLOV I have no stops. I consider both very risky but the money that's there is there and that's it: all or nothing unless the ship is obviously sinking.OTOH, right now, I have a stop on NARI in the area of the March lows. Although the company is performing great I find it hard to believe I will stay with a company like that for more than 1 year or so, hence the stop in case something hits and everything tanks.I recently took a brand new position in TWLO. That I will be watching carefully since it, too, is more of a 1 year momentum position in intent than anything else. I stupidly did not buy TWLO at 85 when I had my finger on the button in Mar 2020 so I am not buying it at 380 as a "forever" holding. Those two are my only intended stops. I have some other shorter-term money, but they are in IPOF (waiting for a fancy acquisition) so that has a floor anyway and I bought recently well under 11. Anyway, yes, the most important thing is not to panic. Buying high growth at ATH, selling during a growth stock crash, and then trying to get out by buying something conservative with comparatively little upside seems to me a sure way to lock into losses for a long time. I see no issues with my companies; just some valuation concerns that are no longer that big--and ERs are around the corner. Hence, the "it is what it is;" don't plan on under 5 years, etc. principles.
The problem with stop loss orders, especially on these types of stocks, is that one can easily have a sharp dip ... often on no meaningful news ... which becomes a big dip because of all the stop loss orders, so that one's own stop loss executes far below the intended target, taking one out of the stock for no good reason. Then, of course, one has to decide that it was all meaningless and get back in, by which time the price may be well over what one got getting out. Automatic is often a bad idea.
I think automatic is typically a bad idea, especially because algos are said to be programmed to trigger stops for exactly this purpose. It is very important to understand that one's actions are not necessarily invisible to the market sharks. One should assume that a big fund knows where stop losses are concentrated by purchasing the information.However, one does not need an automatic stop and if one wants to have an auto stop, it can be a stop limit order to prevent precisely the kind of down elevator that can occur on a stock with poor liquidity.I am no fan of stops at all, which is why I have 1 automatic and 1 "mental," but there is an argument to be made for stops especially when purchasing in roaring markets. BTW, there is a service that had a smart loss on ARKF last month. Although ARKF went south of there about 3-4$ per share, it is currently north about 3$. That portfolio sold out of ARKF. Considering the general context, that looks like a bad decision and a typical case of how a stock loss can hurt.
Way to go for the lack of EDIT button LOL.Quite a few typos in my post above, sorry.But one more thing:A smart stop loss is based on calculating the standard volatility of a ticker and is therefore placed just outside those boundaries. I assume this may work well for traditional stocks, but I bet it would be just as bad for growth stocks as a regular stop--and maybe worse.
Today's close: two indexes and four value stocks made all time highs, Ross Stores -- off-price retail, Old Dominion Freight -- less that truckload, and the two leading credit cards. Want to see something truly incredible? Check out the chart of The Home Depot (HD)....a $342B companyhttps://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HD
Thank you Captain, Dan, MSLB and all for taking the time out of your busy lives to.write back. You all are legends in my book and i really appreciate you all.I am writing on.my mobile phone so it makes it harder to answer or quote every one seperately but your words of wisdom means the world to me.Anyhow, i have not sold any of the Captain's ARK stocks yet. Seems silly to buy high and sell low.I needed confirmation that i am not wrong holding on as i deep lower. I just had another look the deepest in red is NNDM today with _47.5%.I personally did not know any of these companies so.maybe i was better off staying away but seeing Cathie Woods track record i bought into her vision. Cathie is an.intelligent business woman and in the business of making money but she also has unlimited funds to bring her cost base down and use the deeps to her advantage i just dont have that luxury. I am.hesitant to put fresh money into what has dipped down so bad and also dont have any.specific ones that are better off and i can sell to buy the discount but thinking about it again and will be scanning my portfolio again to see what could be done.You know what will be hurting so bad? when the one that i sacrifice shoot up to the sky the next day. It has happened times and times before. So maybe best strategy is to really do nothing and just wait? Or better yet, break the rules, use new money to buy the discount? I really cannot figure out what ould be the best option.here.Thank you all again for reading and your replies. Bella
You know what will be hurting so bad? when the one that i sacrifice shoot up to the sky the next day. It has happened times and times before. So maybe best strategy is to really do nothing and just wait? Or better yet, break the rules, use new money to buy the discount? I really cannot figure out what ould be the best option.here. Lot's wife was told not to look back.... Not good advice because we learn from our mistakes but if you look back to punish yourself, you have a problem. One really must get the fight or flight instinct that served us so well in the African savannah under control. Denny Schlesinger
Lot's wife was told not to look back.... Not good advice because we learn from our mistakes but if you look back to punish yourself, you have a problem. I'm in accord with this notion. Paul Lynde was popular on the game show Hollywood Squares* a few decades ago and had this question posed to him once: "What did Lot's wife change into when she looked back at the evil cities of Sodom and Gomorrah?"Lynde's response: "A leather jumpsuit."The lesson from that: when you look back, you have to learn to make the most of your situation.Pete*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1Km6E_0sLg
A leather jumpsuit doesnt sound so bad 😊
A leather jumpsuit doesnt sound so bad 😊Yup - that's the lesson: things aren't always as bad as they may seem on first (or second) glance (back).Pete
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