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I wrote a long time ago, when SIRI's price was between $6 and $7, that it is just possible that many radio listeners either:

(a) regard the periodic commercial break as welcome relief or affirmatively like many of the ads, and/or
(b) are not so bothered by commercial radio's ads to make the switch because they are sufficiently conTENT with the CONtent on comm'l radio.

My conclusion then was this: it is not at all clear that ad-free satellite radio would become so popular as to make for big earnings and thus much higher stock prices.

You want continuous music? Well, there's something in the world called the Ipod -- you can take it with you wherever you go and once at home, you can plug it in to kickass speakers. You want to laugh in the morning while getting dressed for work? Howard Stern is often hilarious, but he is not SO special to make ENOUGH people abandon commericial radio's morning entertainers.

My conclusion now is, therefore, the same as it was a long time ago. An investment in either XM or Sirius is 100% speculative: it's not quite the equivalent of playing a casino's slot machines (totally random outcomes) but it is -- in my opinion -- the equivalent of playing blackjack (some skill is required but it's still gambling). It's a pure bet that enough people will toss their radios, buy new ones, and pay for it every month. (I'm aware of the car companies' installing satellite radios, but I'm not seeing that that is providing enough oomph to XM or Sirius's earnings.)

To counter my own negative post here, allow me to suggest more positive, solid investments: Legg Mason (LM), PNC Financial (PNC), Moodys (MCO).

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