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The Day after Tomorrow
A stunning piece by Steve Roach at Morgan Stanley.
I bolded the highlights.
There are lots of them
Mish

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=20713812
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We borrowed the DVD from my SIL. What a stupid movie.
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Mish, when the fit hits the shan on this, what's your take on what happens to the rest of us? Our family saves about 25% of its income -- in American dollars. When we hit the wall on Social Security, do our dollars become wastepaper?

A reference or two on where I could start educating myself would be appreciated. I've read a little economics, but no two economists seem to agree on anything.
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Mish, when the fit hits the shan on this, what's your take on what happens to the rest of us? Our family saves about 25% of its income -- in American dollars. When we hit the wall on Social Security, do our dollars become wastepaper?

I'm not Mish. I do not forsee an apocalyptic crash. Nor will the pain be shared. There will be a continuation of the maginalization of a portion of society. The reason Bush is any trouble in this election is that many of the marginalized thought Bush was the answer and their circomstances have not improved.

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In two short years, George W Bush has polarised opinion in America and is hated by billions of people around the world. And he thinks he's doing a good job!!!

On a personal note, I have to add that I have found this election campaign deeply disturbing. The tone of the debate is what troubles me the most. It has fanned a polarization in America and around the world that is right out of some of the darkest pages of history. It didn't have to be that way. Out of the devastating tragedy of September 11 came a remarkable spirit of bipartisan solidarity. America was united and the world came together -- not just in grief and sorrow but also in hope for collective renewal. I remember being stuck in Europe in the days immediately after the attack on America, unable to return home at a time when I wanted nothing more. I was warmly embraced by our long steadfast allies, with a compassion and sincerity that deeply touched me. Their hearts were open and caring. Their home was my home.

That spirit has been squandered. Americans are at odds with one another, with a deep and worrisome intensity. And the world sees us in a stark, adversarial light. The cynics say this is just politics -- that such divisiveness is the norm, especially during times of war. I beg to differ. Today, polarization is playing on the character of America -- in the end, any nation's most precious asset. Sadly, that character is now at risk, both at home and abroad. As dawn breaks the day after tomorrow, that will be the first thing on my mind.


deejay7
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Mish, when the fit hits the shan on this, what's your take on what happens to the rest of us? Our family saves about 25% of its income -- in American dollars. When we hit the wall on Social Security, do our dollars become wastepaper?

A reference or two on where I could start educating myself would be appreciated. I've read a little economics, but no two economists seem to agree on anything.


First place to start educating yourself would be not to ask advice from someone who cuts and pastes silicon investor all day while sitting home playing day trader.

Busters
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So you think Social Security will be diminished to nothing when we can't pay for it?

I loathe melodrama, but I can't imagine what will happen to that deficit.
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First place to start educating yourself would be not to ask advice from someone who cuts and pastes silicon investor all day while sitting home playing day trader.

I don't think Mish "plays" at anything. He cross sources information between the websites. Why is that objectionable.

Perhaps you would care to elucidate us with your sublime insights into matters economic, rather than to merely prattle about someone you know nothing about.


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So you think Social Security will be diminished to nothing when we can't pay for it?

Prett much. But the evolution will be slow. Actually what I think is that about half our society will see a lower standard of living than we now enjoy.
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I like to remind folks when Mish uses Roach as a point of view that Roach is a perenial bear in the market who is mostly only right when the market turns down.

Not that he is not brilliant and an expert in the economy, he is.

However, Roach was bearish in the late winter, early spring in 2003, as the market recovered.

That said, I agree with the problem of debt and lack of savings in the US. I also think that Bush's supposed "Lifetime Savings Account" could be an impetus for Americans to keep an eye on savings instead of spending all the time. A national sales tax might do the same, giving people who choose not to buy a wide/flat screen with their savings a leg up on those that do...
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A national sales tax might do the same, giving people who choose not to buy a wide/flat screen with their savings a leg up on those that do...


True. And those (rich) that buy more will be taxed more. But...... I wonder what affect that would have on flat screen sales and the resulting impact on the economy - the incentive here would be not to consume.
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