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The dems should try and crash the market before the elections in my humble opinion and I would am expecting it (sic)

Guilty as charged. Why, just yesterday I was plotting to crash the market by sending a drone into the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. I was planning to have a little robot parachute out of the drone, yelling "Nana Nana Boo Boo" to scare away the floor traders.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Sounds like Harry Browne's portfolio, with tips
replacing cash. Generally low returns, but probably
the lowest drawdowns of any long term B&H portfolio.

I read this just before reading your post

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-long-forgotten-safe-p...

I had just checked this in GTR1 and portfoliovizualiser in the last month or two,
but only looked at the long term results, not YTD.

rrjgg
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Mixed the z & s in portfoliovisualizer.

rrjjgg
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This thread prompted me to retry Browne's portfolio. From 2005 (GLD just started in 2004) to the present
with cash (cashx at pv) or shy, it beat CARG of vfinx, vanguard's s&p 500 index fund, and vanguard's balanced fund and had 1/5 the drawdown of vfinx. Better than I recalled.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&a...

rrjjgg
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I'm listening to a tree service digging tree stumps in our yard wondering what a mess will be waiting
for me to clean up
while writing this, so I've become extra sloppy and error prone.

I replaced spy by qqq as the stock index in my test. Using spy, the CARG is between
that of the two vanguard funds, but the drawdown is still the smallest of the three.

rrjjgg
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No. of Recommendations: 7
I took the three portfolios that you included 
and added in a momentum one.

(Results: You can reach for higher returns, but it'll 
cost you, naturally, in drawdown- you choose!!)


	      Initial $10,000					
        	Final Balance	 CAGR	Stdev	Best YR 	Worst YR	Max. Drawdown
Portfolio 1	$32,568 	 9.14% 	 7.13%	18.58%	         -1.21%	        -11.37% 
Portfolio 2	$28,594 	 8.09% 	15.37%	32.18%	        -37.02%	        -50.97% 
Portfolio 3	$56,605 	13.70% 	14.18%	47.02%	        -30.07%	        -35.58% 
Momentum Model:	$72,977 	15.86%	16.69%	36.63%	        -10.42%	        -31.25% 
						
Portfolio 1		GLD :25%	SHY :25%	QQQ :25%	TLT :25%	
Portfolio 2	VFINX : 100%					
Portfolio 3		GLD :25%		        QQQ :75%		
Momentum Model:	At end of each month, pick between GLD or QQQ whichever did the best 
over the last three months. Hold that one for one month.				
										
										
(Data from Jan 2007 - Jun 2020	
Using portfoliovisulaizer.com. )
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Nice results, tpoto.

Instead of using monthly changes, just change gld to rgld. It is a stock which tends to go up
gold, but since it has a steady royalty stream it doesn't crash as much when gold tanks.
B&H from 2007 to end of 2019 (free PV doesn't include YTD), 25% rgld 75% qqq has CAGR 16.1% turning $10K to $75K. Max drawdown just a bit more than vanguard balanced fund, but CAGR more than doubles.

rrjjgg
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Momentum Model:	$72,977 	15.86%	16.69%	36.63%	        -10.42%	        -31.25%


Taking an attempted look at the momentum model in the GTR1 ...
http://gtr1.net/2013/?~Momentum%20model:s20041118i21::trp%28...

... arrives at the following at CAGR of 15.44%, GSD(21) 18.81%, Best year of 36.63%, Worst year of -22.77%, a maximum daily drawdown (MDD) of -48.05% & trading 3.2 times annually - so not too different to the portfolio visualizer numbers. Potentially how lag is treated might account for the various differences (or alternatively my GTR1 skills are reaching their limit) as a change between a lag in the trp line of 0 to 1 (that is trading on the 2nd day of the month at the close reduces the CAGR by more than 2%). And so this strategy appears somewaht timing sensitive (at least as measured by this attempt at testing this in the GTR1 - and I'm by no means expert on the GTR1's use of lag).

Relaxing this as far back as the GTR1 allows - GLD's inception was 20041118 and the GTR1 has data back to that date -results in a CAGR of 15.54%, GSD(21) 19.22% and a SAWR(21,0.95) of 11.2%. So overall - depending upon the tax situation of the account & that I've not made a major error - this strategy may be an easy way of getting a 15% CAGR (allowing a 11% withdrawal rate) without too much effort as long as one can transact on the 1st trading day of the month at near the close always.

Relaxing the first day of the month transaction requirement to a 21-day hold & setting a lag of 1 day in the trp step results in a CAGR of 13.27%, GSD(21) 19.77% & a SAWR of 9.6% and so IMO the strategy holds up pretty well with GLD being an effective alternate to QQQ in times of market stress.

(Interestingly it also appears viable as an annual hold transacted on the year end ...
http://gtr1.net/2013/?~Momentum%20model:s20041231i21::trp%28...
... assuming I've managed the lag properly which is a large assumption.)


As always: Thanks to Robbie for the GTR1 tool.
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"When you come to a fork in the road.... take it." - Y. Berra
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So I took another look at the lag indicator in the GTR1. This version should better reflect what I'd expect the original post was getting at in that it a) has a lag of 1 day for all data (that is it uses yesterday's data to decide today's trade at the close - no estimating required for zero lag) and b) it transacts on the 1st of the month transacting at the close.
http://gtr1.net/2013/?~Momentum%20model:s20050103i21::trp%28...
CAGR 12.65% GSD 19.35% SAWR 9.0%.

Trading the last day of the month transacting at the close with 1 days lag (that is the second to last days data) ...
http://gtr1.net/2013/?~Momentum%20model:s20061229i21::trp%28...
CAGR 13.61% GSD 18.52% SAWR 10.06%.

Trading the last day of the month at the close (not the 1st of the month as it was described in the earlier post) with estimation of the final selection (0 days lag of the trp of GLD & QQQ)...
http://gtr1.net/2013/?~Momentum%20model:s20061229i21::trp%28...
CAGR 15.45% GSD 18.81% SAWR 11.16%.

Lag and trade date appear to matter - there must be decisions between GLD & QQQ that are close enough that the lag & trade date are material.

And for fun: Trading the last day of the year at the close with estimated data. Hold for the year ...
http://gtr1.net/2013/?~Momentum%20model:s20061229i21::trp%28...
CAGR 16.94% GSD 19.62% MDD -29.41% SAWR 13.91%. Not a lot of data though - so a lot lower confidence in this approach.

All mistakes my own of course, including in the previous post.
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Good to know that the GTR1 and portviz data are pretty close-
Two years seem to be off more than others- timing??
Final numbers very close.
Next day or so can add in July results.

Total Return 
year ending:								
								
	         GTR1	       $10,000.00 		PortViz	 $10,000.00 		 Diff in annual %	
20061229	34.332954	 13,433 		34.33%	 13,433 		 0.00 	
20071231	32.761765	 17,834 		32.76%	 17,834 		 0.00 	
20081231	-22.77146	 13,773 		-2.74%	 17,345 		 (20.03)	
20091231	47.859383	 20,365 		26.42%	 21,928 		 21.44 	
20101231	20.565964	 24,553 		28.92%	 28,269 		 (8.35)	
20111230	20.553839	 29,600 		20.55%	 34,078 		 0.00 	
20121231	16.377008	 34,447 		16.37%	 39,657 		 0.01 	
20131231	36.634182	 47,067 		36.63%	 54,183 		 0.00 	
20141231	20.153296	 56,552 		11.48%	 60,403 		 8.67 	
20151231	-17.910517	 46,423 		-10.42%	 54,109 		 (7.49)	
20161230	2.530491	 47,598 		2.53%	 55,478 		 0.00 	
20171229	28.572536	 61,198 		28.57%	 71,329 		 0.00 	
20181231	6.370449	 65,097 		7.94%	 76,992 		 (1.57)	
20191231	21.646917	 79,188 		12.71%	 86,778 		 8.94 	
20200730	19.129408	 94,337 		12.95%	 98,015 		 6.18
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If one is considering fixed, static or so called lazy portfolio allocations a very nice starting point is
Simba’s backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]. It already has 25 predefined
Lazy_Portfolios backtested. GTR1 is better for more recent daily verification and modifications but
Simba’s allows quick reference to many alternatives.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=25...

RAM
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Sometimes you just eavesdrop on a thread and then you learn something indirectly. I bought Vanguard's LT treasury fund (VGLT) a while ago (and a nice gain). Then I saw this portfolio using TLT and decided to see what difference there is between the two (work is very boring).

Everyone else may know this but I didn't:

TLT: 99.6% 20+ year US treasuries (remainder cash/derivatives)

18.9 years duration
25.68 Avg Maturity

VGLT: 88.6% 20+ year treasuries
10.9% 10-20 year treasuries

18.7 avg duration
25.3 yrs Avg Maturity

Not a huge difference but nice to know and gives TLT a slight boost with the consistently declining rates over the last few years.

While I don't directly run a permanent portfolio I kind of lean that way due to political and interest rate issues and have about 15-20% in both LT treasuries and gold over the last 12 months as I near retirement (in years past it was zero for both).

(My biggest problem is the ~40% cash earning very little.)

Thanks for indirectly helping out.
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when the next recession/bear comes that 40% cash will look a lot better.
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when the next recession/bear comes that 40% cash will look a lot better.

Not necessarily: not if a 40% drop in the purchasing power of the dollar is one of the symptoms...
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No. of Recommendations: 7
I took the three portfolios that you included
and added in a momentum one.

(Results: You can reach for higher returns, but it'll
cost you, naturally, in drawdown- you choose!!)


I like a 50-50 mix of the Permanent Portfolio with QQQ/TLT for a good balance of low volatility and performance.

Portfolio Analysis Results (08/01/2002 - 07/29/2020)
Note: The time period was constrained by the available data for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) [Aug 2002 - Jun 2020].

Portfolio Allocations

Permanent
Ticker  Name                                Allocation
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF 25.00%
^GOLD Gold Price Index 25.00%
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 25.00%
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF 25.00%

QQQ/TLT
Ticker  Name                                Allocation
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust 50.00%
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 50.00%

QPerm
Ticker  Name                                Allocation
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF 12.50%
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust 25.00%
^GOLD Gold Price Index 12.50%
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 37.50%
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF 12.50%

Portfolio Returns

Portfolio performance statistics
                             Initial  Final                      Best    Worst      Max.  Sharpe  Sortino       US Mkt
Portfolio Balance Balance CAGR Stdev Year Year Drawdown Ratio Ratio Correlation

Permanent $10,000 $43,596 8.52% 6.65% 16.20% -3.20% -11.99% 1.08 1.91 0.4
QQQ/TLT $10,000 $79,016 12.17% 9.36% 26.07% -9.35% -20.45% 1.14 1.97 0.64
QPerm $10,000 $59,607 10.43% 7.21% 21.66% -3.94% -13.59% 1.24 2.2 0.59
Vanguard 500 Index Investor $10,000 $50,423 9.40% 14.45% 32.18% -37.02% -50.97% 0.61 0.88 0.99

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&a...
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That CAGR looks a lot less rosy if you replace TLT with VUSTX (a long term treasury mutual fund that goes back to 2000).

Then you get the nice crash (81%) in QQQ.

Ignoring that is kind of like people including gold in the early 70s.
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You have to guess that there is a big drop coming soon. The dems should try and crash the market before the elections in my humble opinion and I would am expecting it...doc
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No. of Recommendations: 8
The dems should try and crash the market before the elections in my humble opinion and I would am expecting it (sic)

Guilty as charged. Why, just yesterday I was plotting to crash the market by sending a drone into the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. I was planning to have a little robot parachute out of the drone, yelling "Nana Nana Boo Boo" to scare away the floor traders.
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No. of Recommendations: 6
physicianThe dems should try and crash the market before the elections in my humble opinion and I
would am expecting it (sic)


Different perspectives from a different physician family member.
“If it weren’t for ethical reasons, I would give up medicine, I can make a decent living with my
undergraduate skill set without endangering my family and watching patients you can do little to help
die. Tr*** is doing everything he can to make the situation worse. One corvid patient, an acquaintance
from the community a couple of weeks ago begged to be kept alive till the election so he could vote him
out. Sadly the middle aged veteran didn’t make it”

T has done a good enough job already tanking the economy, It’s getting difficult to remain non political

RAM
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