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The equivalent multiple for Dollar Tree might be in single digits right now.
That threshold would require their earnings per share to rise at least inflation+6.6%/year, which I think they will beat.
So I'd be "pretty darned sure" of a good outcome from here.


Sounds like Dollar Tree (DLTR) might be a good candidate for some LEAPs then? The January 2023 LEAPs look like this right now:

strike   Bid    Ask   Execution  Breakeven  Premium  Borrow  Raw Int  Annual  Leverage    current quote
100.23
45 54 59 57.75 102.75 2.52 42.48 0.0593 3.73% 1.74
50 49.5 54.5 53.25 103.25 3.02 46.98 0.0643 4.04% 1.88
55 45.45 49.65 48.60 103.60 3.37 51.63 0.0653 4.10% 2.06
60 41.15 44.9 43.96 103.96 3.73 56.27 0.0663 4.17% 2.28
65 37.9 39 38.73 103.73 3.49 61.51 0.0568 3.57% 2.59
70 32.1 34.8 34.13 104.13 3.90 66.11 0.0589 3.70% 2.94
75 30 30.9 30.68 105.68 5.44 69.56 0.0783 4.92% 3.27
80 25.05 27.25 26.70 106.70 6.47 73.53 0.0880 5.53% 3.75
85 21.95 23.85 23.38 108.38 8.15 76.86 0.1060 6.66% 4.29
90 20.4 20.75 20.66 110.66 10.43 79.57 0.1311 8.24% 4.85
95 17.15 19 18.54 113.54 13.31 81.69 0.1629 10.23% 5.41


Maybe a tad of the 45s and 65s?

Tails
(Execution price is .75 of the way between the Bid/Ask)
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