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The fact that the U.S. has never seen country-wide year-to-year average prices fall.

Do you mean nominal price falls, or real price falls?

You might also want to consider the relationship of house prices with rents, and with real incomes.

Also, it's necessary to take account of the fact that the US market is not really one market, but is many different local markets. Your 'likely' prediction of an 'up-coming slow period with flat-to-slightly-increasing prices' will probably be true of some local markets. I'd be surprised if it wasn't!
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