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The faux economics lecture? Yeah, that was off the top of my head. I looked some of the details up on Google but for the most part, it's my understanding of where we are and how we got there.

After posting, I realized I left some stuff out. For example, companies who raised the minimum wage and improved benefits offered to lure employees back into the workforce created a class of Americans with as much if not more newfound disposable cash than the stimulus payments provided. Even now, especially in the service industry, employers are looking for help and offering higher starting wages than they did pre-pandemic. More money in your pocket turns into higher spending, which contributes to inflation.

As I noted, there are so many contributors to inflation but the federal government only has one real tool to combat it, and that tool is not wielded by the President but by the Fed, a non-partisan quasi-independent organization who guessed wrong. In their defense, things happened (Putin) that you could not have anticipated, but there were other things that in hindsight they should have considered possible.

Other than inflation and the GDP, there are none of the regular signs of inflation. Consumers are still spending, employers are still hiring, Those signals may change but they may not. We are not overemployed and while consumers may complain about the prices, that's not stopping them from spending.

Ideally, capitalist economic theory says spending will come down, supply will rise to meet demand and inflation will dissipate. But in an election season, it's not that easy. The possibility of a recession is swung like a blame club.

I'll also point out that the stock market is predictive of the future only in that it expresses the worries of the present. Worried inflation will stay high, bid the market down. Optimistic the Fed rate increases will lead to a soft landing, bid the market up. It's all short-term thinking.

Fuskie
Who wishes he were younger as well but wishes he could take the experience and bank account values back with him...

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