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This mess we are in is essentially the fault of the Board and the FOMC.

Cisco misses earnings and the investment community calls for John Chamber's head and says that he is a poor CEO and ....

Dell misses earnings and the investment community says there is a continuing slowdown in computer sales and that Michael Dell is ....

Apple misses earnings and the investment community says there is a continuing slowdown in computer sales and ....

Nortel announces that contracts have been postponed and cancelled and that growth will only be 15% and the investment community blames Nortel and its CEO and ....



Do not make the mistake of believing that there will be a soon recovery of the majority of these family losses. The "American Family" -- with anger focused toward the companies that have "missed" and/or toward the Fed -- have sold their stocks trying to save what's left of their money; they will not reinvest in the stock market for a very long time; many will never again buy equities.

Many retail investors are over forty years of age and these people, people who had a large amount of money to invest, will never take the chance of this type of a free fall loss again. Will certainly never take a chance with as great of a percentage of their money as they did during the tech market boom that Greenspan and the Fed have crushed. It's over for them. And as a result it is essentially over for a long time for the market.

The Fed believes or wants to believe or wants you to think they believe that the money will flow back in to equities in a very short time. They base this assumption on the fact that there is a lot of money sitting in money market funds. Again, here, as they did last year, they are making an economy-compromising mistake based on an assumption based on a record of "money on the sidelines."

The money is sitting in money market funds because people are waiting to pay their taxes, not because it is ready to enter the market. The Fed has misjudged the situation based on recorded information, AGAIN.

The people who have been totally flattened and subsequently totally discouraged are tech investors. This Fed doesn't seem to get it that until they restore confidence in tech investing, they're going to get a perceptual recession that results in a real recession. These are old time economists -- the leadership of the FOMC is over 70 -- and here at the beginning of 2001, in the midst of the greatest tech revolution the world has yet experienced -- we have JNJ and GE and, perhaps, MER as "the stocks to buy" for the year. And the Fed has manipulated the market economy into this position. Preposterous!

And yet, they sit there, secure in their beliefs, as the greater economy toiletizes, stating that the problems with the market are now the result of "faulty thinking". I would suggest that the faulty thinking can be attributed to the Fed. They need to ease NOW and a lot more than fund futures indicate to restore confidence. But this reality cannot be understood by simply viewing reports and that is how the people at the Fed make decisions and so there will be slow, slight easing and consumer confidence will not be restored.

The people at the Fed do not indicate that they understand the importance of confidence -- confidence is not easily recorded or reported -- and these people are "report-only-type-people" and essentially unchangeable. And so the Fed will miss again, making the last mistake needed to move the economy into a long recession.

The Fed is already demeaning the perception of the average consumer, the average investor, as "faulty thinking." This phrase is used to overshadow the Fed's mistakes, to protect the Fed's previous choices. And "faulty thinking" by retail and other investors or not, the result will be the same. We're going to get a recession based on Fed policies.

We're headed for a recession based on the inability of these people to act appropriately in 2000 and now in 2001.

The Fed has essentially ruined the American market economy for the next several years, not only through ruining the business of tech companies but more importantly through destroying investor confidence. The Fed will do nothing to change that consumer confidence even though it is still -- perhaps and only right now -- possible because the Fed does not realize that the window of opportunity for consumer confidence renewal will only last about another month. Once the money is used for taxes, the remainder is going into guaranteed vehicles. Then it's over for the market for a long, long time.

The Fed will know it has moved into guaranteed vehicles when they receive the reports that indicate this reality. Too late!

Let Greenspan and the FOMC state that the recovery will be in the second half of the year. He and his committee are incorrect, again. The committee that raised rates SIX times last year and never waited for results. Ask yourself "Did the economy need to be immediately slammed into reverse?" "Could the raises have not been completed over a two or three year period, waiting, always waiting, for results." "Would you have cautioned someone with whom you worked that acted in this unthoughtful, aggressive manner ... about any project?" These people have not indicated competence; why do you believe they will now make the correct eases, be correct?

Let it be recorded that at the beginning of 2001 in the midst of the greatest tech buildout the world had ever seen, the American Fed slammed the tech economy with six unnecessary rate hikes, ruining the business of top tech companies such as Cisco, Sun Micro, Intel and crippling the US and world stock markets.

Let it be recorded that by the middle of 2001 the majority of individual investors in the US had lost in excess of 50% of their family's wealth and the Fed still lacked an understanding of the extent of their error and continued to err and refused to ease aggressively to increase consumer and investor confidence.

The Fed and FOMC are poised to cause a major recession; confidence in the market is almost now dead and once completely murdered, will be dead and resistant to quickening for years.

The recovery will be long and slow and many good, necessary to the American culture tech companies will not participate in the recovery. They will not have survived this unnecessary manipulation.


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