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https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economi... Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco the term spread has a strikingly accurate record for forecasting recessions. Periods with an inverted yield curve are reliably followed by economic slowdowns and almost always by a recession. While the current environment appears unique compared with recent economic history, statistical evidence suggests that the signal in the term spread is not diminished. Always keeping in mind that onset of recession is too late for an investor, we need to be 6 ?? or 12 ?? months ahead of the recession to avoid big losses. Other measures of "short" vs "long" might work better for us but I have not explored that. It could also be combined with unemployment rates as I have discussed before Most all timing near tops is done with prices which thus seem to share the same limitations. Especially that bulls roll over slowly. Interest rate inversion and unemployment bring an additional dimension.Too bad those over on the other board are convinced that timing can not be done. Because in fact it can be done Not perfectly ,but enough to shift the odds. In a bear, the bear overwhelms almost any stock specific move.I am reminded of Buffett's ? remark that he was glad so many people were convinced that beating indices is impossible, it's easier to win when the others are not even trying .There is no reason you need to time all your portfolio. If buying more than one stock is tactical diversification, doing timing with some of your investing is strategic diversification
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