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The good news about the continuing weak price (for now) is that the whole tender is likely to go through.
And they'll get a few more shares for their money.


Preliminary tender results announced.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/alliance-data-annou...
They're repurchasing 5,067,567 shares at a price of $148.00 (9.92% of all shares).

So the lower market price let them get an extra 438k shares for the same pile of cash, compared to the number they'd get at the tender limit.
At their $162 price limit, that many extra shares would be worth $71m, the "bonus" benefit from low prices.
It's good to buy things on sale.

Analyst estimates of earnings this year are in the range of $19.00-$19.50, so they were purchased at an earnings yield of about 12.8%-13.2%.
Estimates of 2020 profit are around $1.2bn, which would work out to $23.50 EPS at the new share count,
so the repurchase might turn out to have a forward earnings yield of 15.9%.
More per share than that, probably, as the share count is likely to be lower by next year with ongoing buybacks.
Even with wide error bars on those earnings numbers, overall it sounds like a good move to me.

But a fresh analyst downgrade from Deutsche* came out today, so the stock is down sharply, at about $143.70 right now, down about 6% in a strongly up market.
That current price is 6.1 times the 2020 EPS stab in the dark mentioned above.

Jim


* if these analyst guys are so smart, maybe they should tell their bosses how to get their poop together and run the bank better...
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