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THE INFLATION ILLUSION...

the best measure of INFLATION is the price of
regular gas at your local filling station...

NOT ALAN GREENSPAN, CNBC, CNNFN...

when A LOT OF PEOPLE begin to take all these
VESTED INTEREST SOURCES for economic information
with A SHAKER FULL OF SALT...

...AND USE THE INFLATION METER THEY SEE EVERYDAY
(THE GAS-PUMP) we will cease to be so easily
MANIPULATED by "vested power interests!"

we will be truly empowered...

THERE IS NO REAL THREAT OF INFLATION only perceptions by these VESTED INTERESTS...

1. world oil prices have fallen largely due to
a significant collapse in the Asian economies...
there was a huge drop in demand...as many of their
businesses went under (US companies are buying many for .10 on the dollar)

...it will take years for them to recover...they
are only now reaching bottom...

...also CHINA has brought massive PRICE COMPETITION to these same Asian economies further slowing their growth and their NEED for mid-east and western oil...CHINA does not need that oil...

so DEMAND for OIL will remain low and there will
be a continuing GLUT...so NO INFLATION here to speak of...unless you believe OPEC trying to rally
prices (phony oil futures scares do raise the prices for a while)...with the blessing of the OIL COMPANIES who are taking a bath in all this, (mostly in their own oversupply of oil)

if and when Asia TRULY REBOUNDS then you can worry
about inflation from this sector!

2. COMPETITIVE PRICING (thanks to GATT)prevents
most NON-unique businesses from RAISING their prices...SOME CHEAP IMPORTER will take your place
in a minute...(GATT comes back to bite 'em...instead of moving their companies from state-to-state in the U.S. "chasing cheap labor" now the "multinationals are forced to play out the same game (in less stable foreign countries... now leapfrogging from country to country...chasing CHEAP LABOR)

3. The heavily "cradle-to-grave" social safety nets of most of WESTERN EUROPE put them at an extreme competitive disadvantage with the U.S. and with ASIA in the doldrums...WE ARE KING!

thats why many European companies are building
plants in the U.S., labor is approximately
1/2 of what it is in Europe.

so we will get little inflation from PRICE INCREASES or competition with the rest of the world!

4. Even moderate rises in U.S. labor costs are
nothing...THE MONEY GETS SPENT HERE...so that's
all AN ILLUSION...(except for a minority on fixed-incomes)

pay me more...and I purchase more...THE SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY STAYS IN THE POOL...just in different parts...ALL AN ILLUSION...

THE BOTTOM LINE...

I am giving you nothing more that THE REASONS OUR
ECONOMY IS ENJOYING SUCH UNPRECEDENTED ECONOMIC SUCCESS!

I don't need the FED or CNBC or some other so-called economic expert to tell me WHY (most of them are still trying to figure why OUR PRESENT SUCCESS doesn't jive with all THEIR GREAT BODIES OF OUTDATED THEORIES)...

so unless there are STRIKING CHANGES to the items
I enumerated above...THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT
INFLATION...

and I will know just by keeping up with WORLDNEWS
in general...and the PRICE OF GAS at my local filling-station...

ALL OF THE ABOVE I FIGURED OUT FOR MYSELF without
the help of GREENSPAN...

...AND SO CAN YOU! (we have just about unlimited
access to info on the Internet)

so listen to the "so-called" experts...I still do,
but I don't JUMP anymore in response to THEIR
VERSION OF REALITY!

P.S. ...the price of GAS dropped to .94 from .98/98 at
most of the local stations in my busy area THIS WEEK...

...so much for INFLATION!

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ALL OF THE ABOVE I FIGURED OUT FOR MYSELF without
the help of GREENSPAN...


I bet Alan knows how to turn off caps lock ;)

Seems as though you may be near a margin call...

Cheers,
Steve
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...so much for INFLATION!


Cool, no more inflation and dropping oil prices. I guess that means deflation is around the corner. Hmmm, deflation means money now is worth more than money later. Hmmm, if that's the case then investments will drastically slow down, at least capital spending will. Hmmm, that doesn't sound too good. Who'da thunk it.

A little bit of inflation is a good thing, it encourages investment.


pikapp383
Who knows where the caps-lock button is on his keyboard
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A little bit of inflation is a good thing, it encourages investment.

Go tell it to Greenspan. Actually, I thought the last poster had some good points in spite of his over-authoritative manner). By the way it's called emphasis, not forgetting where your CAPS key is. He worked way to hard for that to be the case. Didn't bother me at all; helped these old eyes pick out the point.

Speaking of getting to the point.... Back to our buddy Allen; the prior poster's rant is well taken. There will be no inflation (real or imagined) on Allen's watch, count on him blasting the market down if the numbers even hint that there is any inflation brewing. And let's hope he doesn't see a little bit of inflation anytime soon or as others on these boards are wont to say, "get some dry powder ready" because we will have just begun to see buying opportunities. The only thing limiting Allen's actions (and I hope he realizes it) is that by his actions he bears responsibility for more than the US economy. Because if he crashes the US market by over-exuberant rate increases, there is nothing to keep the rest of the world out of depression. The world cannot afford the US economy to falter right now. Allen has a terrible weight to carry. Wish him well while we curse his name. Weird enough for everybody? Sorry.

Just trying to ride things out, not goin' anywhere for 15 years,
glh
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Dear Inflation hats,

Very powerful "cap lack" function. Is this a early sign of rigor mortis?

Extremely sophisticated analysis of inflationary trends in our global market. Perhaps I will turn over my portfolio to the self service pump at my local gas station. Completely mechanical approach.

(This post is a joke fellas.)

Sharon
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So tell me this... How come I was paying $1.20/gal of gas in Feb, and now I'm paying $1.79/gal.


-Dan
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The best measure of INFLATION is the price of regular gas at your local filling station...

NOT ALAN GREENSPAN, CNBC, CNNFN...
when A LOT OF PEOPLE begin to take all these VESTED INTEREST SOURCES for economic information with A SHAKER FULL OF SALT... ...AND USE THE INFLATION METER THEY SEE EVERYDAY (THE GAS-PUMP) we will cease to be so easily MANIPULATED by "vested power interests!"

we will be truly empowered...

THERE IS NO REAL THREAT OF INFLATION only perceptions by these VESTED INTERESTS...

1. world oil prices have fallen largely due to
a significant collapse in the Asian economies...


If we use the price of regular gas at the gas pump as a barometer of inflation, we are in really bad shape. A few weeks ago, the price was around $0.999/gallon. Now it is over $1.10. Let us say 10%/month price increase (if it keeps up). I know the wholesale price of crude oil is dropping (overproduction), but that has nothing to do with the price paid at retail. There, we are seeing what might prove to be over 100% inflation per year. (I admit I do not believe so.) But I seriously call into question your idea of using the price of just one commodity by which to measure anything as complex as a world economy.
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<<How come I was paying $1.20/gal of gas in Feb, and now I'm paying $1.79/gal.>>

You moved to Chicago? ;-)

Ray
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sorry about the CAPS...I'm copying off one of my other
boards/posts...

1. no I'm not getting a margin call

2. I like to cut thru illusions...

3. funny how TOO many people notice the "cap-locks"
first and not the content - I suspect...that's because that's how well THEY (the system) have you CONDITIONED!"

4. Would anyone care to argue "point for point"
on the content...instead of "one-liners" about
the "sacred-cow of inflation" and the reverence you
seem to have for "high-priest Greenspan"
(I do like Greenspan by-the-way, I like the Pope too,
though I think most of "so-called organized religion"
is the "blind-leading-the-blind"

5. Well, if you don't like my stance on inflations,
then try this one...

http://www.ragingbull.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=NITE&read=4066
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So tell me this... How come I was paying $1.20/gal of gas in Feb, and now I'm paying $1.79/gal.


Remember the 3 rules of pricing from Econ 101:

(1) Supply
(2) Demand
(3) Collusion by large multinational companies to maintain prices artificially high


Option to capitalize on #1 above:

Go East young man, go East!


Option to capitalize on #2 above:

When you purchase your next vehicle, recall the days when MPGs were more important than whether or not you could drive it off road 1% of the time.

Drive less.

Option to capitalize on #3 above:

Buy some oil industry stocks


Buckaroo

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why your paying 1.79 per gal now...while I'm paying .91 per gal

Now that is a good question?

Maybe you live in Montreal...no...or

Let me say that I often get on a plane, and find out
the guy NEXT TO ME has paid $400. or so, and I'm
paying $79.

But I see, what your saying is that "all the seats"
on your flight are $400...

well it shakes down like this: if most of the people
in your area ACCEPT what THEY tell you...then it's
simple..."you will pay $1.79 per gal"...all of you
...kind of like the majority of people who listen
to this "inflation hype"

it's a shame...when we have this "worldwide oil glut"

perhaps if enough people in "your area" asked why
gas at MOBIL, SUNOCO, was being sold at
.94 per gal TODAY in Atlantic County NJ...just outside
a high-demand area ATLANTIC CITY...no small amount of
high-traffic, high-demand area - high-rollers...most of whom could probably care less about the price of gas (I know I don't)

well that's how it shakes out...most people take what
they say...and therefore what comes...

your choice!

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>>
3. funny how TOO many people notice the "cap-locks"
first and not the content - I suspect...that's because that's how well THEY (the system) have you CONDITIONED!"
>>


Well, first, it's hard not to notice the SHOUTING more than the content when you're SHOUTING.

Second, this was the wrong board on which to post your message. People come here to read about mechanical investing strategies. I'm capable of finding other boards that discuss inflation when I'm looking for opinions on inflation. You've come to a horse race, but you're talking about milking cows.

If you've been following this board, you're not surprised at the reaction you got because you got the same reaction everyone gets when they come and yell about something off-topic.

--Mr. Toast
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"investor's roundtable" ...how general can you get!

"Inflation" (real inflation) is one of the factors
that MOST impact the financial markets...

and therefore stocks...sectors...etc

It's one of the FIRST things a novice investor or
anyone should be aware of!

Where do you people come from...you just get back
from a group trip to Disneyland?
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"investor's roundtable" ...how general can you get!

Except this is the "Foolish Workshop".  Try reading "What is this place" (such as it is) below.

"Inflation" (real inflation) is one of the factors that MOST impact the financial markets...

and therefore stocks...sectors...etc

It's one of the FIRST things a novice investor or anyone should be aware of!

Where do you people come from...you just get back from a group trip to Disneyland?


We've been here.  I think you got off the bus a few stops too early.
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>>"investor's roundtable" ...how general can you get!

The Foolish Workshop Board is a specialized area of the "Investors' Roundtable" discussion groups where we discuss mechanical investing strategies. This board is not a general-purpose investing board.

>>"Inflation" (real inflation) is one of the factors
that MOST impact the financial markets...

Yes, but we aren't market timers, so inflation doesn't affect how we invest.

Once again, let me point out that the only problem here is that you're discussing this issue in the wrong place. You won't be able to sustain a discussion on inflation here because people aren't here to read about inflation. You'll probably be able to sustain a flame war for a while, if that's what you're interested in.

--Toast
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my apologies to all!

I'm new to the site...and thought this was a general
board on "investing in general!"

again,

sorry, my mistake.

flashrob

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pikapp383
Hmmm, deflation means money now is worth more than money later.
A little bit of inflation is a good thing, it encourages investment.


No, deflation means money now is worth less than money later. That discourages debt, not investment.

A little bit of inflation is not a good thing. A little bit of deflation is a good thing. Most people tend to get slowly better off.

A lot of deflation hurts a lot, but if recognized the cure is much easier than it is to kill inflation.

Finally, steady inflation is economically a non-event, especially at low levels.

It is unexpected, inflation that can cause some beneficial effects. But it tends to be a one-time-shot until people catch on. That is why Keynes did not have a general theory like he claimed, but a specific one.








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<<Would anyone care to argue "point for point"
on the content...instead of "one-liners" about
the "sacred-cow of inflation" and the reverence you
seem to have for "high-priest Greenspan">>

Not me!

For I agree with you. If you read a wide range of columists, you come across a number of quiet, thoughtful one who have pointed out everything that you did. cbs.marketwatch.com has several recent columns that make this point.

Ray
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When you take your subject to the next board, try introducing it gently rather than barging in shouting. You may find this improves your reception.

Just a thought!

Good luck

Rick
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funny how TOO many people notice the "cap-locks" first and not the content - I suspect...that's because that's how well THEY (the system) have you CONDITIONED!"

Yes, and they come at night in black helicopters, too.

Continue sedation.
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4. Even moderate rises in U.S. labor costs are
nothing...THE MONEY GETS SPENT HERE...so that's
all AN ILLUSION...(except for a minority on fixed-incomes)

pay me more...and I purchase more...THE SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY STAYS IN THE POOL...just in different parts...ALL AN ILLUSION...


Actually, I don't mind an occasional off topic post.

Now what you have here, isn't this a perfect description of what CAUSES inflation?

Richard
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Is he (or she) gone yet? Can anybody see? For good? ... I hope.

This is a serious question: why would someone just "pile onto a board" without reading at least a week of prior posts?

Best, Bowledover
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This is a serious question: why would someone just "pile onto a board" without reading at least a week of prior posts?

Newbies are like that. Why should they care about the conventions of an established culture (i.e., in this case, the community in this news folder)? Why should they be polite enough to listen before speaking? That is old fashioned politeness, something that became obsolete with the introduction of cheap computers.
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So tell me this... How come I was paying $1.20/gal of gas in Feb, and now I'm paying $1.79/gal.


-Dan >>

Because if you are in California two refineries blew up between now and Feb. You can't brew gas without'em.

Here on the Gulf Coast gas is $0.97 and dropping.

Inflation is nothing to do with it--it's refining capacity. California has lost some of its.

Sux2BeU
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why your paying 1.79 per gal now...while I'm paying .91 per gal

Now that is a good question?

Maybe you live in Montreal...no...or

Let me say that I often get on a plane, and find out
the guy NEXT TO ME has paid $400. or so, and I'm
paying $79.

But I see, what your saying is that "all the seats"
on your flight are $400...

well it shakes down like this: if most of the people
in your area ACCEPT what THEY tell you...then it's
simple..."you will pay $1.79 per gal"...all of you
...kind of like the majority of people who listen
to this "inflation hype"

it's a shame...when we have this "worldwide oil glut"

perhaps if enough people in "your area" asked why
gas at MOBIL, SUNOCO, was being sold at
.94 per gal TODAY in Atlantic County NJ...just outside
a high-demand area ATLANTIC CITY...no small amount of
high-traffic, high-demand area - high-rollers...most of whom could probably care less about the price of gas (I know I don't)

well that's how it shakes out...most people take what
they say...and therefore what comes...

your choice! >>>

Refining capacity!!!!! There is no more capacity for gas where he is! The supply-side of the equation shifted to the left driving up price.

ECON 101 folks!!

Sux
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Where do you people come from...you just get back
from a group trip to Disneyland? >>

No, you idiot, we're too busy making 50-150% per year.

I liked the article but I'm not digging your responses. Chill, dude.

Sux
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Because if you are in California two refineries blew up between now and Feb. You can't brew gas
without'em.

Here on the Gulf Coast gas is $0.97 and dropping.

Inflation is nothing to do with it--it's refining capacity. California has lost some of its.

Sux2BeU


I'm surprised that you bought the BS Big Oil propaganda.
The problem is that California has legislated specially formulated gas with MTBE to "save our environment". When there's a temporary shortage, CA suppliers can't buy gas anywhere else. There's a provision for an exemption but the law says only established suppliers can get it. Outside companies are forbidden from supplying gas in CA when there is a "shortage".

When MTBE was introduced it was an excuse for permanently raising prices 10 cents. Now that we find all reservoirs and wells contaminated, they've decided to remove MTBE. It'll take 4 years and they tell us that prices will rise as result. They get us coming and going. What a crock!

All the refineries have been repaired and we're still paying an average $1.50/gallon.

Elan
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Because if you are in California two refineries blew up between now and Feb. You can't brew gas
without'em.

Here on the Gulf Coast gas is $0.97 and dropping.

Inflation is nothing to do with it--it's refining capacity. California has lost some of its.

Sux2BeU

I'm surprised that you bought the BS Big Oil propaganda.
The problem is that California has legislated specially formulated gas with MTBE to "save our environment". When there's a temporary shortage, CA suppliers can't buy gas anywhere else. There's a provision for an exemption but the law says only established suppliers can get it. Outside companies are forbidden from supplying gas in CA when there is a "shortage".

When MTBE was introduced it was an excuse for permanently raising prices 10 cents. Now that we find all reservoirs and wells contaminated, they've decided to remove MTBE. It'll take 4 years and they tell us that prices will rise as result. They get us coming and going. What a crock!

All the refineries have been repaired and we're still paying an average $1.50/gallon.

Elan>>

Uh, no.

The refineries are still not at capacity. It takes weeks to get a full-fledged "cat cracker" to full scale. The other one came up and went back down. It really has nothing to do with the MTBE in this case.

I have daily production reports for major chemical operations in several regions in my co-worker's jobs. Includes Gulf Coast, Eastern Seaboard, California Coast, Nothern Europe, etc. California still has major production restrictions.

MTBE is plentiful and prices are dropping. Get some while you can!!!

Sux
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I'm surprised that you bought the BS Big Oil propaganda.
The problem is that California has legislated specially formulated gas with MTBE to "save our environment". When there's a
temporary shortage, CA suppliers can't buy gas anywhere else. There's a provision for an exemption but the law says only
established suppliers can get it. Outside companies are forbidden from supplying gas in CA when there is a "shortage".

When MTBE was introduced it was an excuse for permanently raising prices 10 cents. Now that we find all reservoirs and
wells contaminated, they've decided to remove MTBE. It'll take 4 years and they tell us that prices will rise as result. They
get us coming and going. What a crock!

All the refineries have been repaired and we're still paying an average $1.50/gallon.>>

Amen Elann

Still paying 1.60 here in the Bay...glad I walk to work
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