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Ah yes.

This board shall do nicely.

Finished pennies over the ATH at 48% YTD.

Mainly have cash stockpiled in SPGSU SPAC units that are near the NAV floor, so limited downside, with upside if acquisition announcement is taken as positive by the market. About 50% of port.

About 1/3rd of port still in SPG shares.
9% or so in VYGVF aka Voyager Digital.
Smaller amounts in GNPK aka Redwire, and a regrettable and currently negative short-term trade in CXW.

Plenty of bloated stocks tied to fantastic companies that I would like to own at more reasonable prices. I can afford to be patient.


-Doom
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Sold a bit of Voyager (VYGVF) that I had added at $23 last week, for close to $28 today.
Coinbase is supposed to IPO this week, and it won't surprise me if it gives Voyager stock a boost or if it is just a sell-the-news reaction.

It was only 5 weeks ago that I bought a larger chunk at about $12, so don't want to be greedy and/or lose the gains for nothing.

SPG is not a news/PR-factory and never has been. So the ERs have to speak for themselves and we don't get another ER for a month yet. So vaccine/cases news will continue to be the only catalyst, as they already announced their dividend paid at end of this month (no change). Quite possible future dividends are increased as health of business gets further away from covid impact of 2020. I sold it twice at $119 in my 401k and it has toyed with getting close, but hasn't quite made it back yet. Which means my trades and activity since have overall been a plus to my total port balance. (yay me)
I do expect, at some point, SPG will pass $120 and settle in the $130s in 2021. Anything above that is gravy and greedy.

SPGSU continues with no news of acquisition targets. I have no motivation to leave it for cash at moment, as it is close to NAV of $10, providing a good floor, and I can greatly benefit from an announcement pop. Until other stocks on my watchlist present good entry prices, or I find a new shiny toy to buy, this will largely be a slow, and hopefully upward, pace from here.

Sold the remaining of my poor CXW trade for 10% loss. It serves to remind me that my preference is only to invest in things I plan on holding for 6-9-12 months or more, or which I believe the story is already good but market has overly beaten down. CXW was beaten down and their rebound story may take months or years to play out, and it is in an uninspiring dreary market (privately run prisons) so I will take my lumps and move on. May have finally hit 50% YTD had I not made this unwise trade. Que sera sera.

Doom
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No. of Recommendations: 2
This may not be of interest to you but passing it along in case you hadn't seen it. Today is the
first day you can request to separate your SPGSU units into shares and warrants. You have to do
this through your broker, and it takes a few days to complete. The advantage is you can sell your
shares and warrants separately. One scenario would be to sell the shares on a deal pop, but keep
the warrants as an option for further appreciation if the deal looks to be a long term winner. The
disadvantage is it takes some time for the broker to do the conversion, so for a few days you lose
your liquidity. After that you'll have two securities on your account -- shares and warrants --
that you can sell independently. Like I say, probably not of interest to you where it's purely
a cash proxy for you, but just in case.

On the OLO front, two very large, well-known investment managers just filed 13-Fs disclosing that
the one owns 16% of the shares and the other 15%. Both these managers have a fundamentals, value
orientation, and both have HUGE portfolios. The stakes are tiny in comparison to the size of their
overall portfolios, but larger than many of their other small company investments. From the OLO
perspective, it's unusual for me to see such large stakes by two independent managers.

I own both SPGSU and OLO.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Hey ears!

"One scenario would be to sell the shares on a deal pop, but keep
the warrants as an option for further appreciation if the deal looks to be a long term winner."

I was aware, but appreciate you mentioning. What I don't get, is that I can just hold the units that I have not, and not split them, and still sell the units if/when the stock pops on positively-received news of an acquisition. Let's say I wait 3 months, the merger has completed, and stock is now trading under a new ticker name. I finally decide to sell (and never split the units into shares and warrants): Will my units actually be slightly higher than the share price still, or would units and shares effectively be trading at the same price, once the new ticker starts trading? This makes my brain hurt, but the net is that I don't see any downside in just holding the units and selling for gains if there is a stock pop from an acquisition announcement, so guessing that is the route I am going for now, unless I eventually find a better use for the funds. Until then, it is "cash with upside" in my eyes.

"On the OLO front, two very large, well-known investment managers just filed 13-Fs disclosing that
the one owns 16% of the shares and the other 15%. Both these managers have a fundamentals, value
orientation, and both have HUGE portfolios. The stakes are tiny in comparison to the size of their
overall portfolios, but larger than many of their other small company investments. From the OLO
perspective, it's unusual for me to see such large stakes by two independent managers."

That is very interesting. I am a big fan, but the valuation seems on high-side. We expect the delivery-related revenues fall off a bit, post-covid. So probably it is unrealistic to expect they grow in 2021 at 90% like they did last year. So if they are growing "just" 60% y/y in 2021, do they deserve a 40+ P/S? I have bought and sold twice now for small gains. Hoping I can buy again at a lower entry down the line. Do like the company a lot though.


Doom
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Hi Dreamer,

Typically there will no longer be units when a merger closes. Units are converted to shares
and warrants at close. So up to the close you can sell those units. And for your purposes that sounds
just fine as you plan to sell the units if there's a pop and you aren't planning to hold the
warrants for possible future appreciation. The advantage to splitting ahead of a deal announcement
would be if you want to sell the shares and hang on to the warrants, but that's not your plan. Lol,
not meaning to complicate your life with my rat holes! Your plan is a good one.

On OLO...not your typical SaaS...we'll have to see what their first statement looks like, but sales
growth might not be the best way to value them. The business has huge operating leverage. So I'll
be looking to value them on margin growth rather than sales.

Thanks,
Ears
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I sold about 50% of my VYGVF shares.
Combination of:
1. feels like "sell the news" on the COIN direct listing.
2. napkin math says that using the $1.8b/Q runrate for COIN and the $240m/yr runrate for Voyager, actually shows that both have about the same P/S ratio at their current valuations. So not clear that voyager could/should get a boost from COIN's listing actually.
3. this blockchain coin thingy is all just made up crap, isn't it? I have no idea.
4. Overall it has been a profitable stock, so taking gains and will see if I can buy in substantially lower or if it will ever get above $30 on a rebound.


Got a lot of cash and pseudo cash.

Doom
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Making rash decisions today.
really regret not selling Voyager a couple days ago.
Sold out today. Overall still a good profitable trade, but it was in "great" territory just recently.

Something is just bugging me about the whole crypto run.
It isn't that these things shouldn't be valuable, but they really already are.
Bitcoin, ETH, COIN...these are monster mkt caps.

I have a tiny bit of money in Voyager app to get a taste of things. I don't include it in my port.
Bought LINK at about $33 a couple weeks back and it popped last night. So I was up 20%, and I took that 20% gains and rolled it into something called Digibyte, just because it was one of the hottest things at the moment. And that is when I saw the beauty of the Voyager/crypto momentum play. Problem is, I imagine most of this is GenZ-retail-investor, and I think these folks all get crushed via not having set aside taxes on gains, and in general for YOLOing on MOMO due to FOMO.

Too busy to write more, but basically I am NOT calling a crypto top, but a mini-crash wouldn't shock me. Plus I think the idea that high-growth 2020 winners should have free reign to climb after a small correction is akin to the couple that broke up trying to recapture some of the earlier good times, only it never quite can be that way again.

So back to extreme cash.
I kept my near-NAV space SPAC of GNPK aka Redwire, bc it is (allegedly) already financially sound and a good value.
Otherwise I am in SPGSU, the Simon Property-led SPAC which is about 2% above NAV, so a low floor. It is my pseudo cash or Cash-With-Benefits position.
Then I have actual SPG shares still, and actual cash.

Good news is, it will be hard for me to plummet too much.
Bad news is, it will be hard for me to rocket up from here, barring an SPGSU acquisition announcement.

If SPG flounders to below $110, I may just buy more with some of my cash. Unlike the former couple analogy, in this case we have been dating this whole time and maybe I have been a dick boyfriend and not appreciating her as much as I should be.


Doom
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Bought a bit more IQ, some MGNI, and some VYGVF.

All small allocations.

Basically not sure if that is it for the most recent drawdown or not.

Happy to buy lower but wanted small stakes to earn a few bucks if market resumes upward.

Largely still in SPG, SPGSU, and about 9% actual cash.


Doom
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I am mostly staying in port. This doesn't feel good. I did buy some Sea Ltd. (SE) in after hours this morning. It was the biggest loser in my portfolio, so I got me Irish up and spit into the market wind.

KC, waiting for his head to be handed back
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ok.

When I first sold SPG in Feb when it hit $120 or so, I was up about 25% YTD.
SPG would later go down, I would buy again, and then sold again when it hit $119 a few weeks later.

With Biden's tax plan announcement, I think dividend stocks/REITs should be fine, and SPG is still around $116 at moment. Yet I am up to 44% YTD or so.

That means I managed to use my newfound cash in good ways the past 2 months, but I find any good values to be lacking, and thinking of just upping my SPG stake for a while and putting the car back in neutral for a while until a truly material dip occurs.

Sold my GNPK (Redwire Spac) today. Lost 3% on that trade, but I just think most SPACs are dead for a while, and I haven't been able to uncover much new news around Redwire, so while I could miss a pop if ARK Space ETF scoops them up, I am willing to take that risk, as I while GNPK doesn't have much downside due to $10 NAV and generally ok valuation, I think SPG has more upside (and more risk) as the reopening advances on.

So added about 3% more SPG (which was a swap from GNPK sale) and sitting on SPGSU (as SPAC-held pseudo cash) along with core SPG shares in taxable account, plus another 12% or so in actual cash.

Still about 44-45% YTD and biding my time.

Doom
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Close to ATH again, with SPG hitting $120 today.
Made some changes in anticipation of a market drawdown:

actual cash up to 43% of port.
shifted from some SPGSU (units of Simon SPAC) to SPGS (shares of Simon SPAC). Mainly I did this out of perceived challenges to SPGSU liquidity, as most limit orders take forever to hit.

Combined Simon SPAC is currently at 15% of port.
SPG shares are about 40% of port.
less than 2% in a crappy mandatory mutual fund

Up about 47% YTD at moment.


Doom
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I did two things with SPG. It was only 4% of my IRA. I had been waiting to buy more at $111 or $112 to sell at $119. Didn't happen. So yesterday I sold half at $121.22, thinking maybe it would pull back and I could buy at $114 or so. But then I thought about the options and the premium looked pretty juicy.

I sold $125 calls for $3.16, expiration May 21. That's a little further out than I like, but that's what was available.

If SPG falls, I can buy for a trade. If it keeps going up, I'm o.k. with the gain at $128.16.

KC, who won't be seeing ATH a while....
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April in the books. (10 min left)

Port allocations:
37% SPGS
37% SPG
25% Cash
less than 2% in a crappy mandatory mutual fund.

Slightly off ATH's, but a good week overall.
48.5% up YTD.

What changed since end of March?
My port was:
47% SPGSU (Simon SPAC as a "better-than-cash" place to park funds and get a possible pop in the meantime)
35% SPG
8% VYGVF (Voyager Digital)
6.5% GNPK (Redwire SPAC)
2.8% OLO
1.6% crappy mandatory mutual fund


Basically I sold Voyager, thinking crypto had temporarily peaked after COIN IPO. So far that was the right call. Happy to get back into Voyager closer to $12 and ride it back up to low 20's all over again. Remains to be seen if we get the chance.

OLO was simply pricey at current valuation. Has been slightly up/down since their IPO, so haven't missed out on anything yet. Hope to get in around $18-22 or maybe at end of this year if still around $28-30 and if their ERs and forward guidance look good.

GNPK didn't do anything wrong, but the whole Space craze may take longer to play out, and with little-to-no-PR it is/was hard to gauge how they are doing outside of initial investor preso. May still be a good value in long-run, but should be a lot of competition as Space industry matures.

Usual growth stocks on my radar, which I would happily buy at lower prices.
Nice post here on Saul's board shows valuations are still way up for most, compared to pre-covid.
So stands to reason, imo, that either business has to accelerate or their stock has to revert a bit back to the mean (multiple).

I departed Beth Kindig's service. I think her TA guy Knox is sharp, but that it is more art than science and open to interpretation. If we get a really good market downturn, I could see myself re-joining just to see some of his buy target prices. I did get VYGVF from her service, but other than that it was largely the typical "valuation doesn't matter" mantra around growth stocks you get at Saul's or TMF in general or on FinTwit, etc...

I think people are struggling finding good values at the present time and/or they can't understand why their stocks' prices aren't just magically continuing to grow faster than their growth rates, as they did in 2020. 2020 was a one-off, imo.

I believe SPGS provides limited downside as a trusted and proven mgmt team, and has upside if a SPAC target is announced and well-received. One concern is liquidity, which is why I will keep some actual cash handy to more easily capitalize on any meaningful market downturn.

Conversely, I think SPG has run fairly hard, and my EOY target remains just 10% higher at $135. So while it will be great to have that extra 10% in 1/3rd of my port, it won't move the needle too much more. For tax purposes, I probably don't want to sell prior to Jan 2022 but may hold longer.

So the key is for either SPGS to have a SPAC-announcement-related pop and/or for me to take my cash and SPGS funds and move them into beaten-down growth names I like, if and when a material downturn occurs. Even if SPGS turns down a bit, I think I can turn that small loss into a 20-25% gain fairly easily if I can get in on growth names after a material dip.

Lot of "Ifs" in the plan, but I still have my plan, and happy with progress to-date.


Doom
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forgot the link to the Saul post:
https://boards.fool.com/q1392021-earnings-preview-34819176.a...

He lists a few tables.
I was referring to the valuation table.

Doom
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No. of Recommendations: 1
ok.
May not be the end of this recent round of "growth stock beatdown fun" or GSBF for short, but I am gambling that maybe it is, and that we get a little bounce that I can make a quick trade off of.

I have been stuck in the 44-49% range YTD for a month now, and realistically I won't budge unless SPGS pops due to acquisition announcement, so I have to put some extra money out there if I want to see some incremental gains on top of whatever SPG does.

Only about 10% of the port at risk with the following; DDOG, ZM, ROKU, and UPST. Roughly 3% each in DDOG/ZM and 2% each in ROKU/UPST.

Shooting for 10% gains.

"hey Doom! Quick question."

(Doom appears annoyed)

What?
"Doesn't that net you only, like, 1% port gain?"

Yes, mister smarty number numberton, it does. But that may be the difference in getting me to the Candy-Cane mic, so save the hard questions for Cathie Wood, mmmkay?

At 47.4% YTD.

Let's see if tomorrow brings further investable growth drawdown or if I start to see some short-term gains!

Doom
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That was intense! Not near the March 5th craziness, but between yesterday and today that was edge-of-the-seat type of stuff.

I am sure I am not alone, but I have my stock watchlist and every time the nasdaq started reversing, I would go back to my watchlist and I look at the horizontal line graph feature on Yahoo Finance to show where stock price is at, whether at low of the day or middle or high of the day, etc...

In general, I try to sell when the stock is (at that moment) at a high, and vice versa buy when it is at a current intraday low. Can never predict the bottom, except by luck, but at least it is a low at the time of purchase.

My purchases yesterday, mainly of DDOG and ROKU, were too early, but see previous comment on timing the bottom.

Still only wound up with 13.5% of my port in growth stocks, in this order; ZM, DDOG, UPST, ROKU, NET, ZI. Came close to buying CRWD, but it didn't hit March 5th lows, so figured I would leave it on the block in case of another down day tomorrow.

Candidates for purchasing if tomorrow is down, include: more of the above and maybe CRWD or ENPH.
Candidates that still have a ways to fall before I buy include: TTD, MGNI, SNOW, PATH, OLO, etc...

Looks like we rallied into the close, and I am at 48% YTD with some partially-beaten-down growth stocks on board the wagon of Doom.

Still mainly 1/3rd SPG, another 1/3rd SPGS (waiting on SPAC pop or sell for cash as needed), approx 14% in my growth funds bucket, and 15% in actual cash still. Also some crappy mandatory mutual fund.

Doom
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Hey...

Three of my stocks with post-ER pops; DDOG, ROKU, and NET.
Will see if they hold thru tomorrow, but got deja vu to 2018 when that seemed a common occurrence for me.

Ironically, I didn't purposely buy those due to ERs today, but still nice timing.


Doom
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No. of Recommendations: 3
ahead of SPG earnings after the bell, I am not paring down due to taxable accounts.
could be a 20% swing or a nothing-burger. No idea. Usually not super-comfortable with a hard charge into an ER, but at least SPG has been slow and steady vs 10% type up days.

I did decide to pare a bit of the SPGS (Simon SPAC) in case there is no SPAC news and stock takes a hit. Also did this bc the shares popped slightly (for SPGS anyway) and I got it down to just under 24% of my port.

Actual cash up to 37% of port.
Cruising along at another ATH at the moment.

Looking at the TTD drop, but need it to fall more.
Here are some napkin math price targets of interest to me, but doesn't mean I buy at them.

ZI, 36-31
DDOG, 62-55
ROKU, 278/230
UPST, 79/62
ZM, 245
NET, 59/52
TTD, 450/435 (would love 300s, though)
SNOW, 130
CRWD, 178/150
NARI, 82/63
Those are farther out prices that I would be comfortable holding for a bit.
Doesn't mean I won't do a swing trade much earlier.

up 52% YTD at moment.
Very interesting AH for me today. I built up a nice cushion, so can withstand a pretty big letdown with SPG. My hope is for either a neutral AH response or a pop...happy with either. But if I get a decent drop, I will be disappointed but not surprised.

Doom
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an utter collapse from my beautiful wonderful glorious 51% candy-cane striped mic YTD high, all the way to 47% today, thanks largely to SPG running out of gas.

What did I do?

1. pared down SPGS (Simon SPAC) because the color on the recent ER/CC led me to believe that the goal of the SPAC would not be to turn the JV with ABG (SPARC) into a public company, which was my hope. I still have a nice chunk as I trust that leadership and the downside is low.

2. added some SPG to my non-taxable account on the "dip". SPG only recently got up above $108/110 and stayed there. In past couple weeks, they got to around $117 and above. So by "dip" I mean they were around the $122-125 range, and had a solid ER and future seems stable, so my goal of $135 still seems intact, and today's dip may that about a 15% upside, which seems safer than gambling on growth in the middle of these relentless drawdowns.

3. added some UPST. Well...I did today, and not yesterday, cause I am dumb. But I did get lucky in that it opened at $114 and drifted down to $93, where I bought, and then I bought another chunk or so in $90 and $91. So cost basis is low $92. Could easily plummet, but they obviously just had a great ER, have very-high growth rate, and their forward P/S is lower than most on my growth watchlist as a result. If it pops tomorrow, I may sell for quick gain. We will see.

Actual Cash 30%
SPGS something like 15% (also counts as "pseudo cash")
SPG something like 49%
some crappy mandatory mutual fund 2% or less
UPST about 2.7%

up 47% YTD
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Trading day isn't over, but I think my moves for today probably are.
Like UPST a lot, but sold the 14-15% 1-day pop, mainly because I don't believe the growth drawdowns are gone for good, which means holding UPST for next 2-3 months may be a rollercoaster, so why not take the sure 1-day profits. I risk missing out on a big up-move, but at about 50% up YTD, I want to keep my position of strength for a truly capitulation-style drawdown, which I don't think we have seen yet. May add UPST back even if it just drops a bit...will see.

SPGS (the Simon Property SPAC). Gave up on this. The reasoning was sound: the floor for the shares should be minimal as when acquisition announced a shareholder can choose to redeem floor value or accept the conversion to the new company ticker, or something to that affect. However, all I have seen actually happen is SPGS slowly tick down from upper $9.9s to today at $9.75. My cost basis was $9.91, so wasn't a big loss, but my napkin math scenarios had $9.6 as a short-term worse-case, and it was almost there already while SPG flying and markets up. Finally, in back of my mind, I wanted SPGS to be the vehicle to take the Simon and ABG joint venture (called SPARC) public and unlock the ecommerce value of their shared brands. But in recent ER, CEO David Simon more or less stated that the SPAC would be "for something different" than the motion of SPARC. Then I saw PayPal buy an online returns company, which is sort of another idea Simon could have done. Just thinking David Simon really loves a good bargain, and the best companies to be had may not be "hot companies" but rather beaten-down, and not sure market will go nuts if they announce an acquisition like that. Either way, my stance is to keep the SPGS on my watchlist and once/if an acquisition is announced, then I can decide if I want to jump in. Obviously miss out on upside in that scenario.

Basically I am about 27% SPG and the rest is cash and a crappy mandatory mutual fund around 1-2%.
So that is a LOT of cash. Which means I won't go up/down too much, but am also reliant on SPG to move the needle.

More or less I am waiting for an obvious bargain and/or may use larger cash amounts in opportunistic trades like the UPST one today. Slowly trying to build the war chest and bide my time.

Just the smallest shade under 50% YTD at moment. Pretty happy with that.

Doom
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No. of Recommendations: 1
No changes for a couple weeks it seems, since I sold UPST too early.
SPG more or less in taxable account, slowly/steadily climbing since early Nov. Still.
That is about 37%, having gained against my static cash.
Rest of port is cash, minus 1-2% in crappy mandatory mutual fund.

Finished at ATH, up slightly for the day, a bit over 53% YTD.

Companies I like, that I would like to own at much lower prices include, but are not limited to:
TTD, ROKU, UPST, NET, PLAN, SNOW, CRWD, ZM, NVDA, OLO.

I might eventually buy back into the Simon SPAC a bit, but I soured on that idea, even though floor seemed solid, because SPACs have been roughed up so much lately. Would probably buy on a market/SPG dip, and not on way up.

I think some Crypto have value, but would like to see another major collapse and leg down before I think about ETH or LINK again. Crypto brokers like COIN and VYGVF are different, and while I like Voyager and made a tidy profit off them earlier, I am not sure I see the moat. Seems like everyday I hear about a millennial/GenZ new favorite wallet/digital bank/trading platform. Fickle trends and weak loyalty make me question investment soundness a bit. But if VYGVF got low enough, I would probably jump back in.

Stimulus bill seems on the way, but something like NVEE already peaked from covid lows and so many reOpen trades also feel back to fully valued.

So I wait and watch.
May be a good weekend for some work on the deck and an audiobook or two.
Enjoy the holiday, and appreciation goes out to those that serve, and those we lost.

Doom
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Decided to try and earn some small gains while waiting for market collapse.
Seems like there is usually a hard run-up first.

With Fed meeting tomorrow, odds are there is market movement in 1 direction or another.
Bit of a gamble, but choosing stocks that I am ok averaging in on at current prices, but would still like them much lower (at or below the drawdown lows of March 5th or May 13th, ideally).

Bought smidgen of GLBE. This is a MOMO play...it has a hot hand. That hand could be about to be cut off, but we will see.

Bought half a smidgen of UPST at $118. Would like to see it again at $90 or less, of course.

Combined they are 2.3% of port, so not exactly a big risk.

Doom
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Added about 1.5% of port to XLF, a Financials-focused fund. Berkshire and the top banks are about 50% of the holdings.

Thought process is if inflation fears mount, they may do we, if/as rates increase.

Just a counter-weight to my small growth stock positions.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. Also thinking about NCNO, which would capture spend from financials as they look to keep up with the cool fintwit kids.

In other news: Saw retail number came in poor, and I thought perhaps bad for SPG and reason stock down slightly today. However, you look into the numbers and the cohorts that are down are outdoor/garden, electronics...basically the stuff that was trending up during covid. Clothing and restaurants are actually up and the theme is that people want "experiences" which is all bullish for Simon Property Group aka SPG.

Doom
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and bought smidgen of Voyager Digital (again) aka VYGVF.

I checked and the last three prices I sold Voyager at were $19, $21, and $23.
Bought around mid $16.00 just now.

Originally I was able to buy around $12 during March 5th drawdown, I believe. It could get there again. But it also seems to bounce around $16 and it is a small allocation. This is my guard against Bitcoin going higher, perhaps due to a "bitcoin is good during inflation" sentiment.

Nothing will surprise me with Bitcoin...crash to sub-$20k or go to $100k. In theory, Voyager just needs trading activity, but reality is it seems to trade in sympathy with crypto prices, although it didn't partake in this latest Musk tweet that led to Bitcoin hitting $40k again. So who knows.

Current port something like:
55% cash
38% SPG (because it kept going up, although I did reinvest dividends)
5% in VYGVF, UPST, GLBE, and XLF
1-2% in some crappy mandatory mutual fund

That should be it for today, unless prices crash into the close.

Doom
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am rethinking the XLF purchase in light of realization that in a market downturn, the trading volumes (equity and likely crypto both) would shrink, and that could affect some of the Financials, as Citi (I believe) warned yesterday.

Will hold thru Fed meeting.
Thought is:
1. could be a "financials benefit from inflation" vibe
2. if market still needs to rally into a blowoff top, then it probably doesn't matter what I buy.
3. just have to sell before it is too obvious a top was reached.

If UPST keeps falling, will probably add more in the sub-110 region, and every $10 lower. See #2 & #3 above. Same with VYGVF. Not planning on adding more GLBE, as still don't know enough about it.


Doom
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sold the XLF for no gain, but no loss.
Adding slightly to UPST, and maybe the others. checking it out.

If Fed rates now a nothing-burger until 2023, does market continue partying until they run thru the cornfields with hampers on their heads? Possibly.

but what to hold?


Doom
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If Fed rates now a nothing-burger until 2023, does market continue partying until they run thru the cornfields with hampers on their heads? Possibly.

---

Of course, in the markets, we look ahead, and perception is reality.
So if perception is that inflation is rising and rates will go up in 18 months...hmmm.

Not sure Dec 2018 provides any clues here. Market plunged and bottomed after 4th rate hike of 2018. But after that it went up sharply thru Summer 2019.

Doom
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seems it was a delayed reaction to Fed. Now market (and growth stocks) plunging a bit.

Not clear to me if this is a temp move and quick-buying dip, or start of longer drawdown.

I think the former, but welcome the latter. (just leave SPG alone pls, thx!)


Doom
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replaced the XLF funds into VYGVF, UPST, and GLBE. All three are about 1.5% each.

If we dip more, I may add more.
With SPG at 38% of port, I kind of would like to stay 50% cash for now.

So I have a bit of room if I want to buy more, but would prefer UPST or others give me a price dip that is too good to pass up.

Meanwhile, my port is down to being up 54% YTD, pretty much due to SPG being off its highs.
Hopefully my little growth sub-port can add a percent or two on the total, while waiting for SPG to resume upwards.


Doom
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Just curious. If you want to own some of these stocks just at lower prices, why not sell puts at the price you would buy them at if they dropped that far. Like UPST, if you would by if the price dropped to $90, why not sell put(s) at a $90 strike price?
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If you want to own some of these stocks just at lower prices, why not sell puts at the price you would buy them at if they dropped that far. Like UPST, if you would by if the price dropped to $90, why not sell put(s) at a $90 strike price?

---

I am not an options trader. Maybe when retired I would set aside a chunk of port that is purely house money, and either I grow it or lose it with options, but right now it isn't for me.

Just my sense of it, but when things are rocketing up and stocks pop seemingly after every ER announcement, then call options seem great.

But then covid hits and every kid with a couple hundred bucks or a few thousand bucks, and a few stimulus checks to boot, decide they are "an investor" and jump into the market and start gambling.

And what happens? Well...market rockets up from March 2020 lows to ATHs. So they are geniuses, and all like options. I realize you said "puts" and not picking on you specifically at all - just that I believe majority of options expire worthless and gains are due more to luck than any kind of thoughtful fundamentals plus TA analysis.

Having said that, I have no doubt many make great returns with options, both calls and puts, and selling covered calls, etc... For me to do something like that correct, I would want to completely immerse myself into the numbers and do a bunch of papertrades to understand the ideal timing and prices to aim for, with exits or goals in mind for each.

I just don't feel like gambling with options. Would rather have the money operating in a trade I am comfortable with, and when you are long/short (although I have never done a short) it is just a simpler equation for me to figure out.

It isn't a bad thought...just not something I can do well at this time, and I always find it is better to do a few things very well vs a bunch of things mediocre.

Doom
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just that I believe majority of options expire worthless

A great reason for selling puts or calls. The option seller harvests the premium and wants the options to expire worthless.

The poster was suggesting selling puts near with a strike near your price targets. If the stock stays higher than the strike, you win. If the stock is lower than the strike, you pick up shares at your target price (strike) less the premium received.

Of course, you are on the hook to buy those shares at the strike price. If the stock drops way below your target, it isn’t the most fun of situations.

AJ
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Doomer,

I've been meaning to ask you how your FOMO meter is reading. Not trolling, but your you've had a trading itch lately. I am grappling with my un-FOMO and fighting the "time to sell" urge. DW is now up nearly 14% for the year which pales in the glow of your gain--but she is just 4.7% below ATH. So there is that psychology working.

Yesterday's market action.... Ex post facto, there is always a logic constructed to explain but for me it was WTF! I understand OKE and SPG being directionally down as higher rates on bonds makes dividend stocks less attractive. But the fractional difference isn't that much, right? But that was one Hell of a reverse rotation. I guess the money has to go somewhere and it was enough for a lot of +4%, +5%, +6% moves in tech, thus checking your FOMO meter.

My port is still down 8.25% from my ATH which is whiter shade of pale than DW's. MF is recommending a 2 of my top 5 positions plus another, and DW has 6 of the 7 in her port so that probably relaxes the trigger finger somewhat for at least a short time.

With regard to selling puts, I would be in the yes camp. If you sell the front week or month your premium is less but there is less chance of a drop below strike and then a rebound before expiration. Not really much gamble and you are playing with other people's money. That being said, the same would go for my urge to sell--sell calls although that doesn't protect the downside. It does automate the "I would sell at price X" decision.

Back to lurking,

KC
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Actually, DW had an 8.3% gain on Asana.

Just another project management software company with no moat....


KC
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Good point AJ.

I am showing my lack of options saavy!


Sold GLBE while it was up premarket for table scraps. Looks like a down premmarket and i may not have wanted to hold over a weekend.

Will look to buy back.

Today is quad and a quarterly...whatever that means.


Doom
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Hey kc,

FOMO did get me slightly, i admit. But i kept it in check w only using 4.5% of port.

SPG...agreed. But they have had a great run, so pullbacks are expected. Not a TA guy but it has seemed to bounce off 50 dma since Nov. Close to it now.

Market may have a go-crazy parabolic blowoff before any real crash, so trying to raise more cash where i can w little trades.


Doom
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I sold the one stock that popped.

Figures.



Doom
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also sold vygvf for small peanuts gain.

with crypto continuing to drop today, I didn't want to hold over the weekend, as it has tended to trade in sympathy.

Had been hoping for a 1-week pop with Voyager, but didn't happen. If still $16 or lower next week, may roll the dice again then.


Doom <--- juggling nickels as if they were manhole covers
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Here are the itches I scratched this week:

14th, market order bought SNOW at 245.69. Price now 249.40
14th, market order bought AYX at 83.88. Price now 85.52
18th, limit order bought UPST at 121.97 Price now 123.86.

Back on the 10th I entered limit orders on OKTA at 200, 208, and 216---price now 239.26
On the 4th entered limit order on CRWD at 196.45----now 244.

DW has 6% cash, is up 14.3% YTD and is down 4.2% from ATH
I have 14% cash, up 7.3% YTD and am down 7.3% from ATH. I am, however, above my End-of-Month ATH but there is no ATH Club for this metric and it isn't EOM yet and as I am typing this my keyboard is starting to grow mold.

Y'all relax this weekend, hear? Not much baseball for me. My guys are hurting. Matty Boyd, Michael Conforto, Nick Madrigal on the IL (what happened to the DL, purged from the PC dictionary?) That leaves Trevor Larnach who would be wearing Mud Hens garb if the Twins' own IL weren't filled b most of the opening day outfielders. So I am stuck with Curiosity Stream and pruning the bougainvillea. (Took me longer to spell it than do the pruning. Blame the French.

KC
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Finally sold some SPG in taxable.
Not so much because the thesis in SPG has changed, but rather part of de-risking my current port and safeguarding the gains I have YTD, in order to take advantage of a broader rotation/drawdown in the growth cohort, which I still hope will happen this year.

About halfway thru the year, and SPG popped up today as they raised their dividend, showing their financial might, and market rewarded them. So wanted to capture that pop and sell some of my lots that were just hitting long-term status, and reducing the port allocation of SPG to closer to 30% instead of 40%.

SPG now down to 32% and not selling more as many lots were bought last July/Aug with smaller lots bought via dividend reinvestment thru Nov 2020. Still prefer to hold the rest thru Jan 2022, just to push the tax consequences out another year, too.

Cash is back up to the 65% range then, as I have a small amount of UPST and a crappy mandatory mutual fund.

Building the cash war chest, while port up 55% YTD.

Doom
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bought a wee bit more of UPST...basically still at my most recent cost basis of $117.
Would like to get more closer to $100 or less.


Bought some Voyager Digital...lost any real interest in crypto, but with BTC bouncing at moment, and VYGVF seemingly still beaten down, may be a quick bounce trade here.


Just looking for some extra nickels to throw on the cash pile.


Doom
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to take advantage of a broader rotation/drawdown in the growth cohort, which I still hope will happen this year.

and I am itchy-itchy to raise cash. I had some positions that made up about 1% of the port. These were from NPI and the Cathy Wood, Captain's Ark tool. Bought on May 10. They were Ark funds stocks that screened for positive returns for 6-month, 3-month and 1-month time periods. It was a mixed bag of 10 stocks, an experiment that had DE, CAT, SCHW, HUBS, LMT, TDY, HON..... Old line DOW companies in there. That group were down a percent or two so I just raised cash. What I am looking at is my ROKU, CRWD and SE. I bought the dips over the last 4 months. ROKU is up about 19% in June. CRWD is up 37% from May and 22% from June dips. So, did I buy those for trades or to build up the position. Trying to convince myself one way or the other. The answer it they were intended for trades but the old greed is sitting on my right shoulder and prudence is on the left, whispering "remember February and March".

I am creeping towards ATH and that makes me want to hold in order to get those last few dollars. I need 4.44% more after a 3.08% pop on Tuesday. DW is up 16.9% YTD and is 1.8% below her ATH after a 1.8% pop on Tuesday. One more good day is all she needs. Prudence versus greed. So tempting to keep saying "up and to the right", the old MF mantra to stay fully invested. Good excuse for minding Greed on the right shoulder (no political significance intended). My other meter is my MF CAPS score. It hit 95.88. Over 96 has been a good indicator for profit taking.

Then I am thinking about taking the short term gain on ROKU, SE and CRWD and putting into UPST. Need more saxophone time to clear the brain. I'll probably hold. I have 24 stocks so if we get Doom's rotation I can sell the lesser conviction and buy the higher.

KC
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I bought a bit of GLBE on today's down day. Still too expensive, but either it races up or I am able to accumulate over time. Like UPST, I like these due to the (somewhat) lower mkt cap compared to other top growth names.

I also surprised myself by buying small amount of SNAP.
It ran hard from last Fall after being basically flat for 3 years.
Always wondered if it would be a Facebook replacement, but Snap still refers to itself as a "camera company".

However, SNAP, via their own metrics, declares that 75% of 13-30 year olds (GenZ and Millennials) use their product. This is a case where the david lynch method of investing in what you know or can see works against me. My gamer kids dont seem to care about Snap, so I wondered if their generation really was using it.

They had 65%+ growth in April ER, so that is strong.
They are consumer-facing, and the largest mkt caps in tech are all consumer-facing (Microsoft is both consumer and corp).

AR is a hot topic, and I was on NVDA bandwagon back in 2015/2016 because of VR and self-driving cars, so I get this topic. The key here is a ton of advertising (think: monetization) relationships SNAP has now set up, and they are making original content too (Ryan Reynolds, etc...)

I think, like all stocks right now it seems, that they are overpriced. However, a few different services and/or fintwit folks I follow seem to like SNAP right now, so I am rolling with SNAP, UPST, and GLBE in case:

1. market just keeps charging upwards, valuations be damned, and heads to a blowoff top.
2. the allocations are low enough that if market collapses I can buy more and accumulate without breaking a sweat. (Cash is near 60% still)

I should note that after selling small portion of SPG, I finally have some cash in my taxable account. When you see me buy something in that account, it usually signals my highest confidence, as I want to ideally hold that for a 12-month period for long-term cap gains. So I tend to trade more with nontaxable/401k account.

Anyway - I am continuing to try and scrape up a few more nickels and maybe even a quarter or two here and there, to add to the cash hoard. Let's see what the Summer bring!

Final thought: VYGVF - will ride until I think crypto is about to collapse again. I would think Voyager should spike if the kids all think it is safe to buy crypto and never get real jobs again. The challenge with Voyager is I think their users trade more of the alt coins, which are harder hit (my sense of it) than BTC or ETH or LINK. Either way, VYGVF is on a short leash, meant to net me a small gain to add to cash pile.


Doom
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sold the VYGVF.
made a whopping 6%, but hey it was about 24 hours, so a nickel is a nickel.

Sold because it doesn't seem to be matching BTC move at all. BTC collapses to 28k and hops to 34k, and VYGVF can barely do half of what UPST does before lunch.

Voyager just seemed like the guy who spent an hour at Golden Corral buffet...slow and a bit unsure of himself and his life choices.

So let's see if it goes lower again. $12 was my March 5th drawdown buy price and that was a great trade. Can we get that low again? I would probably bite in the $13's if nothing else macro is going on outside of crypto dropping.

Doom
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Doom-

Interesting to see your recent trades. Appreciate your thought process and sharing them.

In my rather stodgy approach, I have held SNAP since late October and it has become my #2 holding, which kind of shocks me! I'm a fan of their content and AR/VR shopping apps, and continue to like the numbers that got me in back in October. Bought LEAPS calls at the same time as shares-shares up ~40% and the LEAPS are 2x at this point. I have appreciate GauchoRico's observations and postings on his site about how he uses options. I tend to follow his articulated strategy and did so prior to his publishing.

Still watching GLBE. I view it as to expensive, too...but not many bargains out there in this market. May have to dip a toe.

5
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Hey 5,

I don't trust this house of cards. Keep emphasizing that I am referring to stock prices and not companies, when I say I "don't like the stock".

TTD, CRWD, NET, DDOG...these are all great well-run companies.

TTD up 15% today because of a nothing-announcement around cookies and because stock split probably makes it an easier buy for retail. Still makes no sense for this to be above $40 ($400 split adjusted) and there it is back over $70. Crazy.

Anyway, I just sold GLBE after their 8% up day (makes no sense) which was 11% gain in about 1-2 days for me. I will take that CAGR all year long, pad my cash balance, and wait for more sensible prices.

Going to let UPST and SNAP run a bit longer since they are up today, but not up in a stupidly high way. I do feel like we are running towards a top and setting up for another drawdown. We will see.

I am playing with house money, so I am ok with no chasing momentum.
If my stocks went to $0, I would still be up YTD, which is a nod to my cash balance, which is back up to 62.5%


Doom
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Trying to get a better sense of my monthly progress, as I don't keep good track, so I looked at my posts here and at WAFTT to validate my performance at the end of each month. Here is what it looks like:

1/29 up 10% (including dividends)
2/26 up 24%
3/31 up 44%
4/30 up 48.5%
5/28 up 53%
6/24 up 55% (at moment)

ATH was something like 56-57% when SPG was over $135.

Have barely 4% in UPST and SNAP
1-2% in crappy mandatory mutual fund.
SPG dipped today, and just under 32% of port.
Cash about 62%.

My take, which is just some random guy on the internet who doesn't trade/invest full-time for a living:

1. valuations were insane in mid-2019. Then a rotation hit.
2. valuations were insane in Feb 2020. Then a pandemic hit.
3. the multiverse split into a bizarro universe in which everyone YOLO'd on growth/MOMO, and valuations got even more insane. Tons of people did 100% gains or more in 2020 and started touting themselves as modern-day Buffetts.
4. No real correction occured as valuations continued unabated until about Feb 2021.
5. Series of "drawdowns" or rotations hit the growth cohort, around March 5th, end of March, and around May 13th. This did not bring the valuations below the previous insane levels noted at #1 or #2. Rather, these were just dips.
6. Since may 13th, valuations back to screaming stupidly-high levels. Yet many apparently think that since growth cohort isn't up 50-100% YTD, that they are still "beaten down" since apparently they are unable to remember the world before mid-2019.
7. What will happen next is either market goes up on top of insane valuations, market goes sideways for a while, or market goes down. Or certain cohorts experience drawdown/rotations vs entire market being affected.

There is no $2b mkt cap stocks like TTD, AYX, MDB and others were in early 2018, where it seems reasonable that they should go higher and produce good CAGR returns. TTD is 18x higher at around $37b mkt cap...nowhere near in lockstep with actual revenue growth rates.

In short, stocks are not trading on fundamentals, imo. At least in the growth/momentum cohorts.
It is all just a trader's game...a gambling game.

"Hey...Google kicked the can for a year on removing cookies. So buy up TTD and MGNI and any adtech company!"

"Hey...but won't the problem be the same in a year?"

"Bro...we live in the moment, yeah? Like, just friggin YOLO on the MOMO, bro. You don't wanna be feeling that FOMO!!"

"Uh. Ok. Hey - did you really spend all your stimmy checks on Dogecoin?"

"Hey yeah, bro! Society just trying to keep us down. Like the rich just being richer, but we gonna leverage defi tech, you feel me? Bring wealth back to the people!"

"Well. Ok. But aren't, like, the richest people in the world the leaders of tech companies whose stocks we YOLO'd on MOMO? Like, you know, didn't we make them rich and stuff?"

"Dude...you are hurting my brain. Eff Bezos, Eff Musk. I ain't driving no Amazon truck. I am gonna retire off UPST and crypto. NET is totally worth another couple hundred billion, easily. This is about the people...we are changing the world!"

"Ummm. Didn't you say you were going to buy a Tesla and make it rain in Vegas with all your gains?"

"Don't harsh my buzz, bro. I'm saving the world out here."


Indeed. That should all end well.

Doom
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Sold my small SNAP allocation for mammoth 3.5% gain.

Just didn't feel like holding it over the weekend.
May pare some of UPST, but doubt I sell it all and just let it rollover.

I would rather accumulate the sub-$10b mkt cap that is growing faster than the $100b mkt cap that doubled in last 6 months or so.

SNAP and GLBE remain on short list though. May reenter next week if sky appears to still not have fallen.


Doom <--- looking up
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decided to sell UPST after all.

just didn't feel like holding over weekend.

probably will regret it, but basically every trade this week was profitable, if not very meaningful in terms of size/gain. so the cash pile grew a little bit.

Cash a whopping 66%.


Doom
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Raised cash in both IRA's. Different approaches to reach same goal. DW hit ATH which was the catalyst. Her top position is OKE and it is a dividend stock (6.8%) and we left that alone. We didn't touch any of her top stock positions. Axed the bottom 9 and ARKG ETF. Dogs and cats from both ARK and Rule Breakers plus the pot stock. 29.4% cash now. S&P500 at all time high, right? DW up 26% in last 44 days. Just a little cushion.

In my portfolio, I trimmed 4 of my top 5 positions. Those had been 17%, 16%, 12% and 8%. Number 4 is OKE at about 10% so I trimmed ROKU, CRWD and SE down to about 10% and sliced a little DDOG. I had added to those top 3 on dips over the last two months so there was some excuse for taking trading profits. Still at 45% + in the top 5. 30% cash now, plus I had covered calls that expired yesterday and there is a 1% position there to harvest with (a rare) gain on the underlying.

To me, the market seemed tired. Maybe it was DW's trying to claw her way up onto that ATH ledge and stay there through the end of a session.

KC
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If you want to see what a Port of Doom really looks like (and the opportunity that comes with it), check out this OKE chart.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/oke

This is a weekly chart so it masks the real horror/opportunity. It traded as low as $14 and was between there and $16 for a couple of days. One director or VP bought a ton which gave me some encouragement. Dividend is $3.74 a year. How about 26% on invested capital for... life. I bought some but I was badly burned in 2016 by chasing yield. So I had this internal battle whether this snapping up value or making super-stretch for yield. So a triple and still getting just under 7% on current value. My, my, my.

BTW, what happened is that this was at the beginning of COVID and then the Saudi's and Ruskies had a game of chicken in progress over holding oil production.

This could have gone in the regrets thread.... Should be a gorgeous weekend. Enjoy!

KC
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bought small amounts of SOFI, UPST, and VYGVF.
May hold for less than a day, or a week, or longer. Playing it by ear.

Feels like crypto may have found a temp floor since it keeps bouncing off the high 20s/low 30s. So if it pops for a bit, may be good for Voyager stock in short-term.

UPST just because it is UPST and could hit $160 tomorrow or $90...volatile.

SOFI because it was down 11-12% on Friday due (apparently) to lockup expiration. May go lower still, but when it does hit a near-term bottom, I think it will bounce fairly hard, as this is a loyal/rabid fan base.

Doom
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bought a little of SPGS (the Simon SPAC) again. This is basically a better-than-cash play. Downside limited, and maybe on news there is a pop. Not much liquidity, so I don't want a big position for if/when market does plunge, I can utilize cash quickly.

bought a tiny more SOFI when it dipped below $18.

Feels like a day to watch and nibble.


Doom
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Doom

Also added SOFI this am - great call last week. A quick paper gain but plan to trade the position - probably not a long-term hold

orthomlm
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added a bit more SOFI and UPST just now on weakness.

SOFI showed in the am that it can pop. Think this is more lock-up unwinding as volume has been very high.

Total of my "growth" triumvirate in port is 5.5% (VYGVF, UPST, and SOFI).
have a 2% chunk in SPGS (Simon SPAC)
Rest is still SPG and mostly cash.

Earning a couple more nickels for the cash hoard so far this week.


Doom
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Have you talked about Sofi at all and why you like it?

I’m going to look into it soon but haven’t gotten around to it yet. Any info is appreciated.

AJ
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https://boards.fool.com/sofi-ipoe-a-fintech-spac-34774477.as...

That thread has my initial look.

Then go to my last post in thread for a good/recent SA article.
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Sold vygvf for micro gain.

Crypto falling again.

Voyager seems to fall harder as crypto falls but did not really pop in lockstep when it went up.

Of course it will probably explode up now.

May buy back in...hopefully much lower.

Doom
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If you look at VYGVF investor relations page, they like to PR business update (new accounts, assets under management, etc) in the first couple days of the new month/quarter. Though not always. Guessing that if news is not good enough they may withhold. So its a potential binary news event that could send the stock up a few points if they have good news or good spin, or stock may drag if they don't report.
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good point...there is some chatter on vgx token swap or whatever the hell that means.
I don't understand that enough to know why it would affect the stock price, but some online seem to think it will be a catalyst.

I may reenter, but so far it has been the right call today with crypto weakness.
This is totally just trading ideas and nothing about the stock/company long-term.

I really don't know what to think about them long-term...if bitcoin goes to $100k in next 12 months, I am sure VYGVF could be a double or a triple. At same time, why is crypto even worth their current levels? It is all just made-up sentiment and a coin flip at best.

Voyager may branch out into being a standard broker of equities, but is that really needed in the world? Why not just have the typical brokers all come out with crypto trading...that pretty much fills in Voyager's moat with sand.

But if VYGVF hits near $12, it is probably an easy trade (until crypto truly collapses) back up to 15/16 or even to $20s. Rinse/repeat, if the opportunities present themselves.

my 2 cents,
Doom
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1/29 up 10% (including dividends)
2/26 up 24%
3/31 up 44%
4/30 up 48.5%
5/28 up 53%

ATH was something like 56-57% when SPG was over $135.

---

June in the books! SPG bummed me out by diving down in last hour. And SOFI and UPST came down off their intraday highs, too, so actually finished flat on the day instead of up fairly nicely...oh well.

1/29 up 10% (including dividends)
2/26 up 24%
3/31 up 44%
4/30 up 48.5%
5/28 up 53%
6/30 up 55%

for reference, SPG at $130.57, and if it hits $135 I will be a bit over 57%. This is despite selling some SPG, which basically just means my little trades the past couple of months have added a bit here and there to the port.

With half of 2021 completed, I am very happy with the performance, but basically have been happy ever since I hit over 40% in March and have just been trying not to give away those gains and biding my time to find something I like at a price I like, and except for brief drawdown dips in March and May, prices still seem too elevated for my risk/reward comfort level.

Currently I am about 58% cash (closer to 60% if you count the SPGS as pseudo cash), 32% SPG, and then little bits of SOFI, UPST, and SPGS. And a crappy mandatory mutual fund.

I can't remember ever being up 6 straight months, although you can argue I am flat since May. Compare that to 2018 and 2019 which had very visible pockets of gains, and peaks in either June or July, before collapsing down in Fall/Winter. 2020 is just an anomaly, so not super helpful for comparison, but many stocks also ripped in 2020 thru about August or so before going sideways.

I am trying to remember 2017, which was a combo of NVDA and TTD and various friends. TTD plunged in Nov ER and that pulled down my gains a bit from my high.

Point is, I don't normally seem to finish years at/near ATHs, nor do I ever go up every single month. Yet I finished 2020 on a high (albeit I missed out on growth gains earlier in the year) and have gone up every single month since Nov 2020, or 8 straight months.

Unrealistic to expect that to continue. Let's see what happens!

Doom
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Doom

Very impressive -

orthomlm
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Dumped half my SOFI.
Got an ok pop intraday yesterday, but it didnt hold, and i am continuing to not hold much over weekend.

Have small amount of SOFI and UPST left.

Like these both long term, but nothing will surprise me in short term, as market feels overheated.

SPG was ex dividend date.
Will have some more cash in a couple weeks.


Doom
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sold the rest of SOFI and UPST.
Uninspired today, and looking forward to a holiday weekend, and just don't want the hassle of even looking.

Maybe I get lucky and we start off next week with a few down days, giving me some better entries.

In SPG, and a small helping of SPGS SPAC shares, and a whole lotta cash.

Enjoy the 4th all.
I heard potus may declare "independence from covid" which is cheesy but still feels good.
My offices reopen soon, and I will be back to splitting time at office and at home...a much better balance. Kids will be back to normal school in Fall. Guess Zoom didn't change the world after all, eh? (someone tell the stock)


Doom
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Bought UPST back at $120 today after selling at $127 yesterday.

Just small 1.5% allocation, but happy to keep earning a penny here or there if i can.


Doom
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Yes I don't want to bet on crypto long term but in short term seems like VYGYF is positioned to be an alternative to Coinbase and rake in good amounts of cash. Management seems interested in juicing stock price by talking up the business. So its worth a small part of my portfolio. I would probably add a bunch for a swing if we see 12 again, same as you.
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bought small amount of KPLT. Need to learn more, but seems undervalued for an 80%+ grower, with positive EBITDA.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18357833-katapult-announces-firs...



Doom
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weird day. DOW, S&P up a bit, NASDAQ flat, Russell down. Somewhat of a risk off day but my reopening stocks down, too.

CRWD and ZS up, that makes sense. SNOW up 4% and COIN up 7% (I have a token, 2 share position in COIN). But no love for growth or small cap overall. So I deployed a bit of cash after hours. I bought ROKU and PINS which were down 3.7% and 3.2%. Bought DDOG, down 1.26% and OKE, down 1.86. Tried to buy SEA, down 2.95% but..., this was pre-coffee. Maybe I put the limit in at the bid? Anyway, order did not fill.

I guess if these rebound I will take profit. Maybe I should put in good-for-60-days orders and make it automatic.

Haven't looked at KPLT yet.

KC
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Looks like an ugly market open. I'll have an opportunity to get those SE shares just a bit cheaper.

KC
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Hoping this is start of notable drawdown.

Sold kplt premarket to add back to cash. Will revisit.

Bad timing to add upst yesterday...oh well. But that is one i want to accumulate, so not selling.

Doom
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Ugh!

Pre-market most of my stocks are down between 3 and 4%. UPST down 4.6%.

OKE and SPG down just 1.8%.

I think I will wait for after-hours. DW better off as her port had no AH buys so her cash % just going up.

KC, looking for silver lining.
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that premarket may have been largely a headfake. Time will tell.
everything seems well off the lows and it hasn't even been an hour.

oh well.
I gave back a few nickels to raise more cash for pretty much nothing, then.

On KPLT: it does appear undervalued, and if it catches positive press/buzz, it will probably do well. But it services the non-prime consumer loans, which market apparently often discounts. There is also expectation that stimulus payments may have helped with growth last several months. Idea being you couldn't afford X product, so you get your loan, knowing you get a stimmy check in a few weeks or months, and then you pay off loan early once you get stimmy.

Also, while they expect bulk of growth in 2H this year, especially in Q4 (as people need buy-now/pay-later options to purchase items for holiday season) they do actually expect to be somewhat flat for this current Q2, and maybe even negative in loan originations. Apparently the Q2 in 2020 was monstrous due to so much being done online. Analysts asked in recent ER CC about omnichannel and in-store offerings to go with their (largely) ecommerce focused approach, and they said they are working on it.

I liked mgmt responses, but when money stops being dolled out and the weird sugar-high bounce we have had coming off a pandemic wears off, I am unsure what the consumer mindset looks like, especially for those with poor credit.

I only sold because I was hopeful we were seeing start of a drawdown like March 5th or May 13th. In a drawdown scenario, I would default more to best of breed companies that can be bought at better prices, vs a GARP-type of company that I view KPLT to be.

Meaning I would want more UPST, maybe GLBE, NET, TTD, etc etc...if they retested May 13th prices.

Not much else to report except that SPG fell lately, taking me off highs, but cash position is at 64%, so outside of an SPG collapse, I should hover in this 45-55% YTD range, hoping to eventually deploy cash on a notable drawdown and yield another 10-20% to my gains on a bounce back up.

That is the plan anyway. Back to doing nothing for now.

Doom
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Yes, I missed the opportunity. It was a head fake. But, not a mistake. Worth filing away, though. The pre-market trend has not been very indicative of session moves. After hours seems to be more reliable because it is caused by actual news that is released at the close.

Anyway, my actual mistake was acting too quickly after hours the day before. Yes, the prices were down. But some of the prices were STILL above where I sold the week before. Dummy. Patience, grasshopper.

SPG could be a buy soon. Where would the Doom Doc buy? $111? $113? $115? 100-day average is about $121. 200-day is %100 or $101. "Soon" might mean October or November....

KC
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For spg...depends how much gain you expect from say now to eoy?

I have this $135 eoy fair price on my head.

$150 wouldnt shock me in 2021, but ending 2021 at $150 vs $135 may be too aggressive.

So if 10% gains plus 2 more dividends is good, you could buy at 120-125.

I own too much already, but otherwise i would buy a ton at 100, or a decent amount at 110-115.

Doom
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bought a little more UPST.

July off to a "meh" start as SPG is sub $130 at moment.

Nothing will surprise me regarding market...but just seems like overvalued everywhere.

Still trying to be patient.


Doom
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No. of Recommendations: 4
1/29 up 10% (including dividends)
2/26 up 24%
3/31 up 44%
4/30 up 48.5%
5/28 up 53%
6/30 up 55%

I finished 2020 on a high (albeit I missed out on growth gains earlier in the year) and have gone up every single month since Nov 2020, or 8 straight months.

Unrealistic to expect that to continue. Let's see what happens!

----

Clocking in at 52% YTD today. July needs to go on a run in next week or two to avoid the stigma of being the first losing month of 2021. We will see.

Some of this is due to chasing UPST down, but bulk is simply SPG hit $124 today.
If SPG was at their previous high around $135 (and my target price for EOY) then I would be about 56% YTD in port.

I don't know if we can call this a "drawdown" yet, compared to early/late March and May 13th, but this was an ok dip for growth stocks. Most of the names I like are still significantly higher than May 13th lows though (looking at you, TTD!) so I tried to be selective in my buying this week.

UPST near $110 seems ok, but not screaming "BUY BUY BUY!" like it was in the $80s and $90s in the earlier drawdowns.

VYGVF (Voyager) was a great trade at $12 before. I sold in the $20s mainly.
Since then, they only announced better prelim ER numbers.
Trouble is that is counter-balanced with the struggles crypto/bitcoin has had in past couple months.

Voyager wants to be more than tied to BTC price, but for now that is part of the challenge.

So I am a crypto cheerleader this weekend. Hope BTC hits $100k or whatever, as long as I get my Voyager stock pop in return.

Port looks like:
Cash 55%
SPG 33%
UPST 5.5%
VYGVF 4.5%
Crappy mandatory mutual fund 2%


Enjoy the weekend all,
Doom
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the "Delta" scare mongering dropped SPG to $115 on Monday.
Today it is already back to $128.

I think Delta is a nothing-burger in reality, but perception drives markets, so I could see SPG getting whip-sawed a bit.

Generally, SPG hit $119 in Feb, and I have used swing trades to keep driving my port gains, as the actual SPG stock gains since Feb have been limited. Also still getting dividends, too...another hits this week.

Anyway, I decided to cut just a bit more SPG as a result.
One to reduce risk, and another to add more cash.

My dream scenario has been for a major growth stock drawdown while SPG does NOT fall. I really haven't had that yet. So if I have a bit more cash, then I feel less hesitant to "buy the dip" if I don't see my port balance tanking bc of SPG.

Up to 52-53% YTD still.

Doom
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Cash is something like 67.5% which I think is a high-water mark for past year at least.

SPG dividends hit this weekend and probably show up in account on Monday.
Just more nickels thrown on the cash pile.

It looked like crypto was on the verge of another leg down, and then blew upwards this morning, taking VYGVF with it. Not going to regret it. Crypto, like the earlier SPAC craze, and like the various Meme trades, and like the overbought "covid plays" in mid-late 2020...all seem like passing fads.

Numbers are a funny thing...you can often spin them however you want.

Many are trying to say that growth can finally move upwards...because they are so far off highs.
Some like NET or CRWD aren't far off highs, but many others (ZM, PLTR, SNOW, PATH, etc etc) are 30-40% or more off highs.

But here is the thing...if they never were worth those previous highs, is today's price a "dip" or a bargain or fairly-priced?

I still can't get over the concept of valuating single companies at $1T, let alone $2T.
Why does Netflix deserve a $275b mkt cap or whatever it is? Huh?
Why does Visa deserve an almost $600b mkt cap...aren't there threats abounding from fintech on all sides?

Why do we get lulled into complacency about valuation multiples? "oh...40 P/S...no biggie...pretty much they are all that high".

TTD, DDOG, NET...all worth over $30b. Not in 10 years, but right now. Today.

You know what...I am the idiot. Just make AMZN and AAPL worth $4T each. Makes total sense.

I am going to enjoy the rest of Summer.
Eff covid and eff the news that seeks only to tout the end of f2f civilization.


Doom
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I think Delta is a nothing-burger in reality

Dr, I admit to having been a pessimist all along with COVID and got the market completely wrong on it last year.

However, I think there is a lot of mounting evidence that the coming delta wave is going to be as bad as last Christmas. The vaccinated will be spared the worst of the health effects but there are loads of unvaccinated youth and adults that will not.

California has already reinstituted a mask mandate and Apple has delayed their return to workplace date. I think many more municipalities and workplaces will follow suit. The only question to me is timing... does this happen before or after return to school/labor day.

No idea what to do with stocks. I have some COVID plays with low PE's and high cash due to profit from last year but market not liking their prospects (QDEL, OPK). But probably bad Q2 earnings are soon to be announced so do not even want to put more money in them right now.


GLTA
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Doom

What do you consider a major growth stock drawdown? Many were down 30-50%, or maybe more, just a few months ago.
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Stock A is growth stock.


Stock A rev growth rate amazingly stable at 50% y/y, for arguments sake.

Jan 2020
P/S 20
Price $100

March covid low
P/S 15
Price $65

2020 final/peak price
P/S 45
Price $250

Current 2021
P/S 39
Price $195


Firat: maybe it was overpriced in Jan 2020.

Second: % off ATH doesnt necessarily explain where stock should trade in future.

Third: probably significant share dilution along the way.

Fourth: competition...thesis changed at all?

No one seems to remember that multiples exploded in 2018 and 2019, before we ever got to the 2020 overvalued craziness.

My 2 cents.

Doom
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While I share your valuation concerns, I have some minor quibbles with your math.

First, check your multiples. I believe March should be 13x and 2020 final should be 50x.

But more importantly, you are using static sales numbers. In your example you said sales growth is 50%.

So end of 2020 sales should be 7.50, and the multiple is 33.3x (and not 50x).

And the current sales would be 7.50 x 1.2247 = 9.375 (1.2247^2 = 1.5), so the multiple would be 21.2x (and not 39x). That is almost back to Jan 2020 multiples.
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the market caps also keep expanding due to share dilution.

my numbers were made up, but directionally accurate from what I observed in following stocks like CRWD, OKTA, and others over the past couple of years. UPST is too new to consider, of course.

Point is simply that just because a stock is down 40-50% from ATH, doesn't mean that is is "cheap" or a "bargain".

It may just mean that while the current price remains too expensive, the ATH represents truly silly overbought levels of momo-induced madness.

You don't have to agree with me.


Doom
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Public service announcement.

1) DW made 2 ATH's this week.
2) My MF CAPS score hit 96.27 yesterday.

cnbc premarket shows NASDAQ up about 0.3%. I will make gametime decision on raising more cash Friday. That CAPS score has been a pretty good indicator of at least a short term top.

And, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/22/i-think-people-are-underesti...
And, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/22/delta-variant-is-one-of-the-...

Of course, the UK variant is what got me out of the market and miss the early 2021 rally.

KC
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I think I've talked myself off the ledge. COVID.... nah. It is a big deal for the public and private health system. Big deal for some politicians, but only if hospitals are overflowing. Big deal if your own family is affected. But the economy? Stock market? Delta is dominant now. Virulent, they say. Contagious. But way more among the non-vaxed. Where are they? Going to be a problem in small town hospitals. Well, it would be a big deal if the big states lock down but will that happen? Not tomorrow. Not next week.

What, me worry?

KC
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Delta is dominant now. Virulent, they say. Contagious. But way more among the non-vaxed.

While the vaxed have far less symptoms, I wouldn’t underestimate the number of Vaxed will catch the delta. ‘

Israel study puts vaccine around 39% effective:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-v...

Where I live and have had a recent surge in cases (for us)…

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vaccinated-people...


Of Singapore's 1,096 locally transmitted infections in the last 28 days, 484, or about 44%, were in fully vaccinated people, while 30% were partially vaccinated and just over 25% were unvaccinated, Thursday's data showed.


The market and economy seems like it will be ok. The Delta has been dominate here for a while but I think it is just starting to get there in the US and likely there will be a surge of cases for a while for those vaccinated and not. At least those vaccinated are not having severe symptoms..
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1/29 up 10% (including dividends)
2/26 up 24%
3/31 up 44%
4/30 up 48.5%
5/28 up 53%
6/30 up 55%

I finished 2020 on a high (albeit I missed out on growth gains earlier in the year) and have gone up every single month since Nov 2020, or 8 straight months.

Unrealistic to expect that to continue. Let's see what happens!
----------

Sucks to be right in this case.

July was my first down month.
I had a couple swing trades go nowhere and SPG has stayed off highs.

7/30 up 53%

Port remains 31% spg
2% in crappy mandatory mutual fund.
Rest is cash.

Delta/covid may pressure spg in Aug. But i think it is a non-issue in Sept.

This unvaxxed group of morons is cramping my plans.

I want SPG at high point if/when tech crashes.

But i dont see growth crashing if covid spikes.

Eff covid. Eff unvaxxed ruining it for the reat of us.

My offices pushed reopening by 2 months. So dumb. If ZM was at $300 i would have bought as a covid hedge.

Bring on August!


Doom
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I bought some HGEN as a total gamble trade on covid getting worse. 2% allocation.

SPG ER is monday.
With no delta fear-mongering, i would have expected a pop to $130s.

Now...nothing will surprise me. SPG should be fine either way at eoy, hopefully bw $135-150.

Doom
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I abandoned the HGEN idea for now.
ZM would be a better hedge (for SPG), but price too high at moment.

Just riding my SPG thru ER today.
Nice early pop faded already.

Just me, but I always feel better about a stock that is flat or slightly down going into an ER.
When it is screaming high into an ER, often seems ripe for AH letdown.

Either way, I hope SPG finds the $130s and gets comfy for a while, until tech/growth sector decides if it wants to rotate and do another drawdown or not.


Doom
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