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The press keeps saying the banks are where the risk is. From what I read, real estate prices are high and could do a US-type plunge. I think the risk is all political. If food prices take off and the people decide to riot, then it is the uncertainty of the political future that will make the stock market fall sharply.

Some Chinese stocks have taken massive plunges. I use to own Ag Feed. I didn't see the big plunge coming. Last month I owned and make money on puts in that stock. When I had a double, I took a profit. That was way too early. Ag Feed is an interesting company and the market seems to be saying something is wrong. I continue to watch waiting for something to go correctly. Ag Feed is like so many Chinese companies. Who knows what is happening there? I don't -- although I continue to hold Baidu.

What will be the Black Swan event? My guess is high food and housing prices will cause unrest in the streets. What are my chances of being correct? 2% -- at the best. Anyone's guess who lives there, or travels there, is better than mine.

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