No. of Recommendations: 3
The problem with this signal is that it leads by so much, typically perhaps a year ahead of a recession, that it's not actionable in the short term.

One thought:
The lag to the start of a market slide is likely smaller.
For the business cycle driven bear markets, the broad equity market typically peaks well before the "official" recession start date.

I've been meaning to look at the historical distribution of relative lags, but I've been too lazy lately.
I've been more intent on may latest favourite gin. Mmmm.

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