No. of Recommendations: 6
The question is, for all the times that the inverted yield curve has preceded a recession, how many months elapsed since it first or last inverted and the recession officially began? That could serve as an indicator of how long a window we have until an "all-clear" could be anticipated.

The question we're really interested in is how well the inversion predicts a stock market downturn, not how well it predicts a recession. The market itself is a leading economic indicator. If you wait for the recession you're going to see the market downturn in your rear view mirror.

Elan
Print the post  

Announcements

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.