No. of Recommendations: 6
The question is, for all the times that the inverted yield curve has preceded a recession, how many months elapsed since it first or last inverted and the recession officially began? That could serve as an indicator of how long a window we have until an "all-clear" could be anticipated.

The question we're really interested in is how well the inversion predicts a stock market downturn, not how well it predicts a recession. The market itself is a leading economic indicator. If you wait for the recession you're going to see the market downturn in your rear view mirror.

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