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The question really becomes, how likely do you think is is for you to get XX% return above inflation?

Or, when deciding to take Social Security at age 62 or FRA or later, one can ask "Do I want to maximize the amount that's left when I die if I get a great investment return, or do I want some insurance against running out of money if I get a modest or poor return?"

Even if you get a good *average* return, if the bad years are right after retirement, the money you had to take out at the lows isn't around to enjoy the high return years, so your actual portfolio can suffer.
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