No. of Recommendations: 1
The REITs mentioned are:
ARI, CEI, GGP, MAC, PSA, SHU, SPG, TCO, and VTR (the latter being 64.6% overvalued, according to the author).

There isn't much more to get from the article, unless you believe this guy's numbers. (GGP: 140% overvalued? Give me a break!)


he seems to be substituting the value of land with the value of commercial rents...certainly, residential real estate will be broadsided with the "bubble bursting" scenario, and NAV of commercial holdings will be reduced...

but residential and commercial real estate are different animals:
* fixed rents will adjust as leases expire
* overpriced real estate is regional, many reits are very diversified geographically (are all the holdings on the 2 coasts?)

lower real estate costs will benefit the buyers of both commercial and residential property.

the real threat to REITs, IMHO, is that the deflation of bubbles is so sudden and extreme that the entire capitalist system goes into a tailspin, in which case neither bonds, nor reits, nor stocks, nor banks will seem safe. (and we are all SOL).(mattress funds may be ok, if the house doesn't catch fire...)

what am i missing?
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