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the republican has to actually compete for states like Texas and Georgia.

I think you make a logical error in assuming that the GA governor and the TX senate race are good analogs for 2020 POTUS.

One could just as easily say that Abbott's win in TX (55-43) which was also a statewide race is the proper analog to 2020. I am pretty sure that Cruz was the WORST performing statewide race in TX. All of the others appear to have been stronger results for the reps.

And as far as GA, I don't think one can expect the same results there unless the demographics are the same (black female dem POTUS candidate). We can see some signs of this even in the current election as other down ballot statewide races in GA were not nearly as close.

The (Rep) Commissioner of Ag for GA actually has more votes (over 2,000,000) than Kemp (1.9 million currently). The rep won that race 53% to 47%. This might be a better analog for 2020 than the Gov race.
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