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No. of Recommendations: 1
The Scottish National Party (SNP) had 32 votes FOR Common Market 2, but abstained in the Customs Union vote. If the Customs Union was the only soft Brexit option available, SNP might vote for it. This would give Customs Union enough votes (if the other votes held). But there were 39 Conservatives who abstained from the Customs Union vote who could swing the vote either way.

April 1st Customs Union Brexit vote:

 party   MPs  For_CU  Against_CU  abstained
Con 312 37 236 39
DUP 10 0 10 0
Lab 243 230 10 3
SNP 35 0 0 35
Ind 11 5 3 3
Lib Dem 11 1 5 5
TIG 11 0 11 0
Plaid 4 0 0 4
Green 1 0 1 0
total 638 273 276 89

Big banks' predictions:

J.P. Morgan: general election 30%
Deutsche Bank: general election 30%
UBS: general election inevitable

Goldman Sachs: no-deal Brexit 15%
J.P. Morgan: no-deal Brexit 15%
Deutsche Bank: no-deal Brexit 25%

Goldman Sachs: no Brexit 35%
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