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Cree is displaying an independent, even standoffish attitude toward the market lately, and especially today. That gives the shorts little by way of safe handholds to rely on when trying to steady their nerves. For them the risk premium is very high and they need to do a lot of their own brand of "due diligence" if they want to stay in this mix with respect to Cree. Many of them are too lazy for that, and will leave now, methinks.

Maybe some of them are already gone, especially those of them who
actually like to work hard and can do their DD. Does anyone know where the short interest for Cree stands this month compared to October? The release of that figure is due about now, but I don't know where to look for it.
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Hey... thanks for that link stndby!

And for some interesting stats:

http://www.viwes.com/invest/shorts/top20/

By short position on monthly report date:
0210 | 0209 | 0208 | 0207 | 0206 | 0205
0204 | 0203 | 0202 | 0201 | 0112 | 0111



CREE Cree Inc. 10,140,294 = 79th out of the top 100 shorted stocks for 0210. (Y-MO)

This should prove interesting to watch over the next little while.
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rvzsj - Here's the link I use direct from NASDAQ: http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_full.asp?kind=shortint&symbol=CREE&selected=CREE Most all other stats for Cree are available here without the inaccurracies found on otheer sites.
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A month ago, mid-October, was about when the big intra-day push to get the stock price down below $10 occured. That had to have been somebody putting on a big short prior to earnings, betting on bad news and/or trying to create a capitulation. It'll be interesting to see the short #'s for November, I'm guessing the number of shares has come down significantly.

poorboy
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Short interest will not show up until the end of the month 27/28
I believe it will remain high because I believe shorts have been shorting this stock all the way up.While some have covered others put shorts out-IMO
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Yeah, you're probably right, mybestshot, Cree probably looks attractive to new shorts right now on a fundamental basis due to the big runup in price in a short time, even with the recent good news factored in.

poorboy
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slime, poorboy, mybestshot:

I'm inclined to think some shorts have covered and others have gone short in the last few days. If so, short numbers will still be high. I, ever greedy, am out of Cree right now. I will buy even more shares (hopefully) on the next pullback. The hardest thing I've had to learn is patience while trading. Perhaps after this trade I'll be able to finally just live with what I've got and let it sit for a few years.

I for one am not quite convinced the general market isn't still experiencing a bear market rally. I do believe, however, we've seen the bottom for Cree. It seems several pieces of the puzzle are finally coming together for Cree and it should be rewarded. My new motto is "Cree's looking as good as it should!" :o))

I also picked up some CTHR shares. I plan to let them ride without selling until something fundamentally changes in a negative manner there. Bob Thomas is doing a great job IMHO and has earned my trust.

Out on a limb... I decided to get some THC the other day. My logic is that it was trading ~ $55 and after some negative news which won't affect it's core earnings is now selling in the ~ $15 range. After the idiot doctors (who are not THC employees) get sued and hopefully put in jail, and the Gov. is done with the medicare pricing investigation (and THC pays the obligatory fine) it will be back to the races. I think it's a no brainer if I can wait a year or so. Which I can. :o))

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I'm inclined to think some shorts have covered and others have gone short in the last few days. If so, short numbers will still be high. I, ever greedy, am out of Cree right now. I will buy even more shares (hopefully) on the next pullback.


Imshaken, I agree that new shorts will follow the old ones that leave. But right now they (the new ones) are acting like fleas, not like bloodsuckers. That is, Cree has not been pulling back long enough nor deep enough to give them a foothold. When the terrain they land upon begins to resemble flypaper rather than the glossy substance it does now, I will worry.

I have had thoughts like yours, to the extent that I will eventually consider lightening up, but not yet, and not beyond my core. I remember a time around Jan00 (give or take a few months) when you sold your Cree as it was rose through 100 on its way to 200 pre split. It took you a long time to find an entry point again, I recall.

I would have held this time, (and have held), at least to see what happens after the Nov 19 institutional meeting at CIBC. I have a good feeling about it because all the mood creating issues seem to be upbeat right now. The presenters can talk with excitment about lots of recent good news and good results. The audience will look at the stock action recently and start to worry about a new-style pessimism, -- being too late, rather than their old-style pessimism -- being too early. Many will be tempted to buy, I think.

As for myself, the intraday capitulation to 9 in early October convinced me of a bottom. I was at my core holdings then. I used my cash to reach full power two days later buying more at about $11. Then I started kicking in a tiny measure of overdrive (margin) at $11.50, a lot more right after the conference call at $15.10, and a last 200 shares at $17.10 just for good measure -- and round numbers.

I hope to ride this higher for a while if Cree obliges me, but I'm keeping stop loss limits for all my margin shares so as to preserve at least 2/3 of their unrealized gains. If Cree just stagnates here I will slowly pull out of my margin. If it rises slowly I will just lift my stop loss limits on the margined shares. Haven't decided what to do about the maxed out core holdings. Hopefully I just won't have to think about it again for a few years, -- perhaps when Libra's OLED issues come onto my radar screen.

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<I remember a time around Jan00 (give or take a few months) when you sold your Cree as it was rose through 100 on its way to 200 pre split. It took you a long time to find an entry point again, I recall.>

Oh. You do have a good memory! I recall I sold pretty much all my Cree just below $100, feeling it's price had no relation to any fundamental value. A PE of 300 or thereabouts. To suggest I was sick when it ran to $200 a week later is an understatement. Like a kid who stood in line for his favorite ride, the roller coaster, all day long only to get to the end of the line and realize he can't ride because he did something unfortunate a couple days before. :o))

I ended up started to buy back at 140. heh. Still, most of my investment in Cree didn't happen untill the night they first warned about a flat earnings ironically enough. ~$25. A price I never thought we would see again, so I can't complain too loudly. More important, than my entry price is that I learned something about the market in the last few years. I never know what it's going to do next. :o)) Cree's up one week, down the next. It goes up and down on good news, and down on bad news. It rises and falls on tides not of it's own making. Yet Cree's price has acted more strongly than the overall market because Cree's fundamentals are better than most companies.

Still, I'm inclined to agree with your assessment that the market psychology currently seems more constructive than in the recent past. So Cree may well ride a wave a while longer. So I may take the plunge again before a pullback. I'm going to digest some things this weekend, do some reading, see what percent of U.S. consumer products have actually had price drops of some sort this year.... (40%) and try to guess what effect that aspect of deflation and war will have in a market that looks ahead... Then I'll make my guess.

BTW: Saw the Harry Potter movie tonight with my daughter. Great movie!!! Maybe even better than the book. :o))



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Well, if Imshaken can be such a good sport in discussing his own unfortunate actions, I reckon I'll jump in there too.

I took a bit of profit on CREE a couple weeks ago in my 401k, and have been feeling a twinge of regret everytime I read the board lately.

I'd love to hear your thinking once you digest things, Imshaken, but for now, I'm afraid my pessimism is keeping me from getting back in at this level. I'm looking at the charts, I'm watching the local economy, I'm watching the markets and the FOMC, and I just don't see a wave in the works for Cree.

I'm considering the recent discussion/debate about CREE valuation (a very impressive, very thoughtful series of threads, thanks!). I'm thinking about the "soft-spot" in the economy right now, and the malaise-inducing effects of all the Iraq-o-mania here in DC. And I think the shorts are going to hold sway at the first glimmer of unpleasant news.

I'd love to be wrong, cuz I still hold CREE in my taxed account. But in my 401k, I'm still planning / hoping that we'll see CREE dip again into the mid teens. I guess what I'm saying is that I'm willing to bet that in the next few months, Cree won't go much higher than low 20s, and if it does, I think it will soon return to the teens.

Anyone care to persuade me otherwise?

Best of luck to us all!

John Quixote
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John - I'm a slow trader, as I recently posted. Just the same, I'd like to take a shot at forecasting, for your post, even though I'm not too sure one can forecast the market. What I see in Cree's chart is a cup forming with this current run up tracing the right side of the cup, which should top out around $27.41 (the unfilled gap from January '02). At that point, the handle should begin to form leading to a drop to fill the gap at ~$12.50. There's your entry point. The potential breakout from the upward thrust of the handle should begin in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of CY 2003. Then again the National Weather Service (NOAA), based on it's computer analysis, called for rain in my neck of the woods for the past 5 days. But, don't you know it's been sunny with the storms splitting and moving north and south. Oh well, it passes the time. Good Luck -
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Nascrap gap at 1370's...when that fills..CREE will give u an entry op


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cree


just be committed and ready for freddy...18 ish is possible at that moment in time....just a guess of course...but 20 has firmed..and any plunge under 20 should be scarey...but brief.......just an opinion...and we know what opinions are worth....keeping an eye on it too..for a trading op...tr
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Soft said: What I see in Cree's chart is a cup forming with this current run up tracing the right side of the cup, which should top out around $27.41 (the unfilled gap from January '02). At that point, the handle should begin to form leading to a drop to fill the gap at ~$12.50. There's your entry point.

Being new to IBD and CANSLIM, and not having the book in front of me, I believe a handle should not correct more than 7-10% from the top of the right side of the base. So a 28ish top of the right side, would not lead you to a 12.5 handle. Too steep.

That said, I also see the gap between 12.32-12.55 at the start of our last run up. Looks like it won't get that low again, but everytime I think anything in this market, I am wrong.

I sold my shares too early in this last run, 16.85, and also cringe lately when I see what I left, and continue to leave on the table. Right now, I am just waiting for a new entry point as well. I might get in partially, if she reaches the teens, and wait to commit fully if we see 12.50ish.

Wondering, what does Imshaken see as his optimal new entry point?

Love this board.
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Moose - Technically you're correct about retracement. In fact, a larger breakdown is considered bearish. It's just that I've seen handles with big dips, before blast off, and 12 1/2 fits those models. I also like to factor sentiment, the economy, and indexes that Cree's movement appears linked to ($SOX, $COMPX). None of which are doing as well as Cree. Cree's long term charts have bullish signals and trend changes (the MACD completed it's 1st bullish cross in 3 years) all over the place and thus far it has held it's long term uptrend which not many stocks have done in the past 3 years, particularly in the semiconductor sector. Given the magnitude of the market decline the rules are going to bend a lot over the couple of years. If not $12.50 then $14.50, but what do I know? Just a weather forecaster -
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hasn't there been enough talk about buying on the dips, just get in and stay in. That way there will be less shares to sell and the price goes up. Mullet
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Has anyone noticed the volume lately? Pretty nice huh!! Cree will be 30 by the end of the year. There is a buying spree going on ladies and gentlemen, don't be left out by trying to time this market. JMHO but if I sound bullish well I guess you could say that. Mullet
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I agree Mullet. If I keep playing around here, I am going to be angry that I don't have any LTBH shares here.

But, to be honest, the last two swings I played with CREE shares, and some early defense plays I made, are the only things that have kept me close to even for the year here. Made lots of mistakes two years prior, and learning to read charts is better than losing all your money.

Depending on Cree's stock price early next year, I may put some IRA money in there, and let it be. But for now, just trying to make some money.

Soft, I agree with the long term indicators, and bullish signals. The only way to trade now is long, but with stops close behind. It will be interesting.
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<I'd love to hear your thinking once you digest things, Imshaken, but for now, I'm afraid my pessimism is keeping me from getting back in at this level.>

John, you may be sorry you asked. :o)) Convoluted thoughts ahead.

I've been mulling this weekend. What to do, what to do.... Is the rally a bull market real deal or this another bear market rally? Do bear/bull semantics really matter in the near term? Did the Vi queens really beat Green Bay and why did I decline a free ticket to the game!!..? (oops wrong thread ). In any event, I don't really know if we have a bear or a bull on our hands and it probably doesn't matter anyway. I'm inclined to believe the market will go up some here, and then will come back later. I'm also inclined to be be invested in Cree since I feel naked when I'm not invested. So I WILL get back in. Soon.

My entry price target will be as low as I can get it but isn't firm. We'll see if the market rests later tomorrow. But I'm inclined to believe the general market rally will continue for a while. (days... weeks..) Why? I suspect it's because institutional investors really would like it to. I recall reading how Pimco's Gross thinks the Bond rally is over for the most part and bonds are fully valued. Thinking about it, interest rates can't go much lower so how much gas can the bond market have left in the tank? Economic fundamentals aside, if institutions can't count on bonds for gains, isn't the other game in town equities? Or perhaps money market funds. (These might even start offering negative returns in the near future if deflationary forces continue to develop....)

Unfortunately, due to repetition it's fairly easy for me to admit to myself I screwed up. In this case I lost a couple of dollars worth of gains I might have otherwise enjoyed. My intention is to make peace with my decision and try to do the best thing looking ahead. Since I don't know for certain what's going to happen ahead in the short term I have to guess**.

**One might argue here that a person doesn't HAVE to guess at all. They can become a LTBH investor. Of course a LTBH doesn't have to guess, but they don't experience as much fun and pain as I do either. :o)) Actually, once I reach a share count goal, I plan to just hold.

As for what's going to happen, I just plan to get back in during a pause in the next couple days. I'm not sure if Cree's going to pass 24, or 27 in the near term so will play that by ear as well. That will be decided by the tone of the general market. I tend to believe the rally will fail and we'll experience lower prices in the new year. (historical precedence). The one thing I do know is I'll have stops in place. I'm not riding all the way down again.

I find it interesting that I'm perfectly happy with the amount of CTHR and THC I have and am not inclined to acquire more, whereas I never seem to be satisfied with how much Cree I have. I'm starting to consider that attitude to be a flaw. At some point here I should just be happy with what I have and concentrate on other things.
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