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The Spectre of Long Term Care
By TMF Pixy
"One person in three who turned 65 in 1990 will stay a year in a nursing home. One person in 10 will stay five years or more." (National Association of Insurance Commissioners)

Recently I had reason to discuss long term care with an attorney specializing in Elder Law and he quoted very different sounding statistics. There was some figure like 1 person in 3 or 4 would go into a nursing home at some time. But that something like 90% of those entering the facility would leave before 90 days. The two largest "reasons" for leaving the nursing home were death and sufficent recovery to return to the patient's previous living arrangement.

On the surface these two sets of "facts" seem in conflict. I am wondering how the projections were made for the current 65 years olds. For example, was there a factor for increased life expectancy? Certainly 90 year olds are more likely to have medical problems them 70 year olds.

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