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The yield curve predicts a recession several months before the recession arrives. Two charts let us research this. The 10YT-2YT inverts (goes negative) months before the start of the recession...

For those who want to follow the yield curve, the original work on the model was based on the predictive ability of the spread between the 3-month T-bill rate and the 10-year government bond rate.

From 1991:

The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity
Estrella and Hardouvelis
http://hardouvelis.gr/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/JF_June_199...

DB2
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