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There have been several articles about how trying to time the market requires you to be right most of the time because missing some of the good outweighs side-stepping the bad.

Here's a great one:

Investing in stocks on the way up, but in cash when the market is declining, doesn't beat DCA by much, even with perfect knowledge of the inflection points (i.e., when the highs and lows occur).

Of course, what works great in our building phase doesn't always perform the best in the withdrawal phase, hence holding a more balanced portfolio in retirement (and maybe even a "bond tent" in the last few working years and early in retirement to address the sequence of returns risk).
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