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No. of Recommendations: 46
There is one acronym that is more likely to guarantee inferior returns than any other I’ve ever come across. It first came to my attention from a Seeking Alpha author who is up a bit more than 8% this year despite owning Peloton. Lord knows what his return would be without that stock.

GARV. Growth at Reasonable Value. Shall we name a few from Talend to Nutanix to Pure Storage to Cloudera to New Relic to even Alteryx recently. Hey, let’s talk Slack and Elastic...for some reason they have both underperformed for longer than a year creating GARVs for all the value investors (hmmm...in the midst of a historic WFH bull market Slack is down 30%! Not just underperforming but substantially down! But it’s cheap...sigh...pound head against wall). Nvidia only crashes 2 years ago after hitting what were considered absurd low valuation. I had sold it out in the $300s at what was near it’s very top. All the triple + I made in Nvidia happened when it was “outrageously” overvalued.

It was only after it became cheaper GARVed that money was lost in droves on it.

Funny how the same thing happened with Arista. More than a triple there when it defied valuation logic for years. Then when value investors came upon it...stymied. No money there in years.

Why? S curves and business fundamentals changes for the worse. I’m real time we saw this happening.

Why is it people prefer to buy a declining or maturing business at a GARV price rather than a spectacular one in its prime is beyond me!

That is, and you know it when you see it, the price is just “silly”. Snowflake $90 billion. Don’t need a sound track for that. Speaks for itself.

Tinker
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