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No. of Recommendations: 9
They don't make their data public because they would have to admit that all the numbers they published up to now are totally bogus.
I mean, New York alone will have 3 times the total fatalities of the whole of China? Who are they kidding.


Maybe.
But in another way I believe the Chinese numbers more than the US numbers.
Not because they are inherently more truthful.
The Chinese did more of the testing needed, and the case count closer to stable than is the US count, so the error due to any fibbing is a relatively constant number of cases.
In the US the presumed truthfulness advantage might not outweigh the errors, shortfalls, lags, and unevenness of testing, while the case count target is changing very rapidly.
It has been like a diligent but nearsighted fellow doing his level best to count the animals in a stampede.
It doesn't take fibbing for his numbers to be bad.

Given the large error bars in the US, for some near-upper-bound estimate X we may have greater certainty
that China has had fewer than X cases to date than we are sure that the US has had fewer than X cases to date.
Maybe for X=2 million, for example.

That notion only breaks down if there is in effect an ongoing raging epidemic in China this month: the entire caseload drop was fake.
Could be.
But despite censorship, that would be fairly hard to hide in the modern age.
They could probably hide several hundred deaths new per day without much difficulty, but (at a guess) perhaps not several thousand per day.

Jim
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