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No. of Recommendations: 14
This comparison with the flu has become the new Hitler - never to be used in any comparison. But you and Jim and others should drop your holier than thou kick - it’s a perfectLy reasonable comparison to make.

...
Seroprevalence surveys that have started already should answer the question pretty definitively in the next 2-3 weeks


Very nice overall summary DTB, kudos.

A couple of addenda:

One of the conclusions from the Silverman et al study is that the trajectory of death counts could tell us this answer much sooner than widespread antibody tests will.
To paraphrase unfairly:
Say you call a smoothed peak in daily US deaths during the first wave around April 21 as "early" and around May 6 as "late".
The degree of lockdown in the US to date probably isn't enough to cause an early peak in daily mortality in the "slower spread / higher mortality" scenarios.
But is is enough to work with an early peak date in the "faster spread / lower mortality" scenarios.
So, if we soon see US daily deaths on a trajectory consistent with an early peak, it bolsters the "high spread / low mortality" end of the estimates.
The expected curves diverge starting more or less now. Quite a lot within a week.

Separately, I'm not being holier than thou about doing factual comparisons with seasonal influenza.
I made one. (well, I quoted one).
It's entirely valid to compare any aspect of one disease to the other. Numerical comparisons can be very useful.
It's not valid to minimize the current epidemic by suggesting that the broad impact of is similar to that of normal seasonal flu. The data don't support that assertion.
I wasn't pleased with being falsely accused of that.

It's probably valid, just ill advised, to point out that Covid-19 is less severe than seasonal influenza--on a few very specific metrics.
Paediatric fatality rates, for example.

Despite trying to use great care and carefully phrased specific parameters, I still seem to have got jumped on for it, so I agree there is a certain Godwin thing going on!

Jim
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