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This isn't to say I don't expect further weakening of the dollar, just that I'm getting tired of the alarmist nature of currency conversations (not refering to DutchMark, just the general info-sphere).

No, no ringing of alarm-bells from my side. Just trying to see things in the right perspective, just like you. I think we're pretty much on the same page.

Yes, the dollar is about the same level vs. the real compared to a year ago. It even went to 1.60 at some point. But I thought it was getting skewed then too. I remember you guys telling me personally how expensive you thought Brazil was when we met there. And the real is even a lot more expensive now. And such feelings are relevant, as it's all about purchasing power vs. productivity. In my experience, when a currency feels too cheap, it always corrects itself. But it can take years to do so.

Compared to 2001 the dollar has lost nearly 50% of its value vs. the Euro. No matter how big the economic turmoil, such differences within a decade simply do not make sense between two economies that essentially not that different. Most likely at time the Euro was too cheap. But with the same likelihood I can say that right now the dollar is too cheap.

With the current level of US debt it's quite possible the dollar will go even lower still. But give it ten years and I'm pretty sure we'll see a big swing towards the other side at some point.

Mark
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