Skip to main content
No. of Recommendations: 0
This opinion piece is just that, an opinion piece which is not particularly well researched. Among other things it claims that every poll uses the same weighting and that is simply not true. Heck, I think the majority of polling firms don't even reveal what their weighting scheme is.

Not to mention, that since 1956 not a single incumbent president has ever won re-election when below 50% in Gallup.

Under 50% *when*, the day before the election? We don't have that data yet, do we. What we have is the data 45 days before the election. These include, as I cited before:

2012 Obama 48.3
1992 Clinton 48.2
1988 Bush 48.0
2008 Obama 47.0
1944 Roosevelt 47.0
1976 Carter 46.5
2000 Gore 44.6 (lost Electoral College, but won popular vote)

So, just flat out not true based on the present point before the election. In fact, I only listed the ones below where Obama is now. For 50% or below, add 1948 Roosevelt 50%, 2004 Bush 48.7, and 1960 Kennedy 49.0.
Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.