This opinion piece is just that, an opinion piece which is not particularly well researched. Among other things it claims that every poll uses the same weighting and that is simply not true. Heck, I think the majority of polling firms don't even reveal what their weighting scheme is.Not to mention, that since 1956 not a single incumbent president has ever won re-election when below 50% in Gallup.Under 50% *when*, the day before the election? We don't have that data yet, do we. What we have is the data 45 days before the election. These include, as I cited before:2012 Obama 48.31992 Clinton 48.21988 Bush 48.02008 Obama 47.01944 Roosevelt 47.01976 Carter 46.52000 Gore 44.6 (lost Electoral College, but won popular vote)So, just flat out not true based on the present point before the election. In fact, I only listed the ones below where Obama is now. For 50% or below, add 1948 Roosevelt 50%, 2004 Bush 48.7, and 1960 Kennedy 49.0.
2012 Obama 48.31992 Clinton 48.21988 Bush 48.02008 Obama 47.01944 Roosevelt 47.01976 Carter 46.52000 Gore 44.6 (lost Electoral College, but won popular vote)
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