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Greetings once again Fools!

Since it's Monday, it's time once again to delve into some of last week's CAPS data to see if we can find anything interesting, insightful, or perhaps most importantly, helpful when it comes to making some of our investing decisions.

Before I get into this past week's data, however, I think it's important to review some of what we looked at in the prior week.

As you may recall, last week I came up with what I thought might be two key take-aways. The first being:

Perhaps most interesting, however, are the multiple thumbs-down calls on bearish ETFs, namely BGZ, EDZ, and MWN.

Again, we don't have pitches to rely on, but I'm guessing that these Top Ten participants were looking for short-term bounces - perhaps related to the Obama inauguration or the pending economic stimulus bill.


Now, the results change minute to minute, but here's how the Top Ten had done with the aforementioned calls as I sat down this morning to take a look at the data:

BGZ - two calls, scores = +2.43 and +5.91
EDZ - two calls, scores = -0.24 and +15.82 (closed pick)
MWN - two calls, scores = +4.83 and +8.77

Looks to me that our Top Ten did a pretty good job here of predicting this rally vs. the S&P in at least the short-term. Furthermore, only one of the six picks was closed, so it's possible that our Top Ten believes the short-term bounce may not quite be over yet (though we can't know for sure with just this data).

The second take-away:

It appears as though three of the Top Ten seemed to think that hard assets, and more specifically, natural resources, made good thumbs-up calls in the past week.

Here's how those three calls did this past week:

DXO - one call, score +5.37
TCK - one call, score +16.74
UNG - one call, score +6.35
USU - one call, score +3.64

Again it appears that our Top Ten were, as a group, pretty much spot-on. This shouldn't be too surprising I suppose, as I imagine these people are in the Top Ten for good reason.

Granted, it is but one week of analysis to go on, and one doesn't want to read too much into one single set of data points, but given the success the Top Ten had, as a group, in our first week, I think it might be a good idea to see what they've been up to over this past week as well.

While slightly less active than in the preceeding week, the relationship between underperform and outperform calls made by the folks in the Top Ten hasn't changed by what I'd consider a significant amount:

Total underperform calls = 56
Total outperform calls = 17

In keeping with the way I looked at the data last week (which seemed to work - but again, is only one week so I wouldn't read too much into it yet), those underperform calls with more than one Top Ten participant weighing in are:

Ticker: Company/Description
BTH Candles/decorations
CTX Commercial Construction
LJPC Biopharmaceuticals
MNLU.OB North-American oil and gas

Unlike last week, I don't see a convincing central theme here, but given the slowdown in consumer spending and commercial real estate / construction one might interpret this data to mean that the Top Ten participants aren't yet convinced that our economy has yet to turn the proverbial corner.

Here are the Top Ten participants' outperform calls for the week:

Ticker: Company/Description
BAC Bank of America
C Citigroup
DORM Automotive replacement parts
FNDM.OB Online financial information
GBNK Guaranty BAnk Corp
HBAN Huntington Bancshares
IKM B of A 5.875%
ISRL Oil and natural gas - Israel
MEI Electronic Components
MWA Water infrastructure
NCR ATMs and kiosks
PDS Contract drilling (oil and gas)
PMAH.OB Illuminated signboards
PRGO Pharmaceuticals
TXT Small aircraft
YAVY Yadkin Valley Financial

First, a couple of these picks (ISRL, PDS, and perhaps even MWA) seem to dovetail with some of the other natural resources picks made in the prior week - so it looks like at least some of our Top Ten participants seem to think that this arena still has some fertile hunting ground.

What was surprising to yours truly were the number of banks/financials that made this list. We also have more than one Top Ten participant weighing in bullishly in this space, as BAC and C were given the thumbs-up by StatsGeek and HBAN, IKM, YAVY, and GBNK were picked by BravoBevo. Have banks turned the corner? Or are our Top Ten simply calling a short-term bounce based on happenings in the political arena? I don't know what the answer here is, but it'll be interesting to see if this is the beginning of a trend.

I hope you've found this week's installment of This Week in CAPS helpful, and as always, your comments, crticisms, or your own observations from CAPS-land are always appreciated and encouraged.

Until next week...

Regards,

Russell (a.k.a. TMFEldrehad)
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