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Greetings once again Fools!

Has another week gone by already? I guess it has.

Before I get into the specific CAPS predictions this week, I think it only right to highlight the biggest piece of CAPS news surrounding our illustrious Top Ten...

That being, yours truly is, as if this writing, no longer among them.

*sniff* *sniff*

Just kidding! Really! (About the crying part, not about being out of the Top Ten - though it does, for the moment, save me from the potential awkwardness of analyzing myself in this post!)

Anyway, in keeping with past tradition, let's take a look at some of the take-aways from last week and see how our Top Ten fared.

You may recall the following underperform calls made by more than one Top Ten participant last week:


Ticker: Company/Description
BTH Candles/decorations
CTX Commercial Construction
LJPC Biopharmaceuticals
MNLU.OB North-American oil and gas


The scores, however, were a bit of a mixed bag. First, BTH saw a nice jump in share price over the week netting our two Top Ten participants -35 to -40 or so points a piece for those calls. They did better when LJPC crumbled, however, as those calls have scores of about +26 and +88. For some odd reason I can only seem to find one call for CTX (maybe I miscounted last week, and maybe one of the calls is hiding from me), but either way the one call by TDRH has a score of about +16. Meanwhile, even though we had two calls on the same ticker (MNLU.OB) going the same direction (underperform) in the same week by two of our Top Ten, the scores were markedly different (+23 and -33) - which goes to show just how much short-term volatility can change results in both CAPS and in real-life investing.

The one thing I found perhaps most interesting from the prior week's post, however, were the number of outperform calls on financials.

Here's an excerpt from last week:

What was surprising to yours truly were the number of banks/financials that made this list. We also have more than one Top Ten participant weighing in bullishly in this space, as BAC and C were given the thumbs-up by StatsGeek and HBAN, IKM, YAVY, and GBNK were picked by BravoBevo. Have banks turned the corner? Or are our Top Ten simply calling a short-term bounce based on happenings in the political arena?

While the underperform calls made by our Top Ten in the preceeding week were a bit of a mixed bag, almost all of the outperform calls on financials went the wrong way for our participants.


BAC -7.87
C -2.19
HBAN -4.43
IKM +2.04
YAVY -10.68
GBNK -6.72


Now, to be fair, it is just one week - and all of these calls still appear active so our Top Ten participants who made them still think things will get better (or I imagine they'd end the picks) - but there's no question that one week later, Week #2's results for our Top Ten weren't nearly as good as Week #1's were.

So... I guess we need a tiebreaker - usher in Week #3!

This week we have four tickers which garnered the big red thumb from more than one of our Top Ten. These were:


CHFI.OB China Finance, Inc.
IPI Intrepid Potash
LPHI Life Partners Holdings
WPHM.OB Winston Pharmaceuticals


The most interesting part of this list, for me at least, is the fact that this is the first week we actually had three of our Top Ten weighing in on the same stock - that being LPHI.

Of course I looked for pitches from the group on this ticker, but to no avail. Given that Life Partners deals in the secondary market for life insurance settlements it seems like the Top Ten may be thinking that the woes our financial markets have been having are going to spell big trouble for this company. This sentiment would seem to be shared by the CAPS community at large as they've given LPHI a rank of one lowly star.

The list of outperform calls for the week is actually a pretty long one, so I'm not going to list all of them here. Total underperform calls by the Top Ten this week numbered 31 vs. 29 outperform calls. I wouldn't read this as suggesting that the Top Ten as a whole have turned more bullish as most of the outperform calls were made by only one of our Top Ten members, BravoBevo.

One interesting point about this list, though, is that one stock got the 'thumbs-up' from more than one member of the Top Ten. That stock being:

DYAX: Dyax Corp (biopharmaceuticals)

While we don't have a pitch from BravoBevo, we do have one from tenmiles:

Clinical stage biotech microcap likely at right price; potential catalyst with phage technology; recent deal with Biogen provided upfront cash with significant milestone potential - likely worth a shot at $2.16 for small speculation.

So, tenmiles is warning us that this investment is perhaps a bit speculative (show me a biotech microcap that isn't!), but the added thumbs-up from a second member of the Top Ten perhaps makes this a stock to keep our eyes on going forward.

Well, that's what I have for this week. As always, all questions and comments are encouraged - and keep on CAPing!

Regards,

Russell (a.k.a. TMFEldrehad)
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