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No. of Recommendations: 9
by the way, I am not so self-absorbed to think I have some massive audience that needs to hear my every thought on a stock or my port moves. Outside of the rare talk with the old man this past weekend, I don't talk stocks with anyone, so this serves also as my sounding board, plus I find all this crap interesting.

I heard a thing today...don't want to make a big deal out of it, and it is just one negative client story, but it spoke to a larger issue with the NTNX narrative that I was basing my "Tier 1" designation on. Won't go into details, and hopefully it is a bump in the road, but I got spooked. This is why I don't invest in IT companies too much, as it is too easy for me to find negative stories/experiences in my line of work from clients or coworkers or industry colleagues, for just about any vendor.

I drank the NTNX koolaid, and still am a fan, but color this as a "trust but verify" probationary period now for the next year. So NTNX was dropped to Tier 2 status.

In a surprise move (given all I just said above) PVTL came off the waiver wire as an undrafted FA to leapfrog over the Tier 2 group and land right into Tier 1/1.5 range. WoW! What can I say, I am a big believer in all things multi-cloud/hybrid cloud, which is part of why I still like NTNX long-term too. There aren't many vendors the size of PVTL or NTNX you can invest in, as most of the other players are much more mature and larger companies that have other large (slower growing) business segments, so they don't interest me as stock plays: VMware, HPE, DellEMC (if public), Cisco, etc...

Tier 1
PVTL, IQ, TTD, BZUN

Tier 2
NVDA, JD, AYX, MDB, NTNX, and took a flyer on MITK to force me to dig in a bit more.

For taxable account, I have just the Tier 1 stocks. NTNX was a wash so it didn't hurt to sell that position, although I will take a tax hit on HUYA.

Looks like my timing was pretty solid on selling HUYA for PVTL at $25/26. Now I just need PVTL to not make me regret the tax bill when Spring of 2019 rolls around.

With exception of newbie MITK, I really like all of these, and would be surprised to see any of them have bad ER numbers anytime soon. I think most are Trump-FUD-proof, but JD and BZUN are the most vunerable due to ecommerce focus. JD really shouldn't have taken a hit today...99% of their business will be China-facing for a while, I imagine, so the Trade Wars stuff overshadowed the great Google partnership news and general solid strides JD has been making.

I do wonder if Trump could screw up TTD a bit, indirectly. What I mean is will some analyst ask Jeff Green on ER call about impact of China business, and will Green say anything that the market could interpret as a headwind? TTD brings US brands to China, but if China throws up retaliatory restrictions that put a damper on this...hmmm. My gut says this is a non-issue, and even if there is a small impact you won't notice as the China/Intl growth rate will be very strong y/y. Then hopefully the CTV story has emerged even more in next 2 Q's that any China issues is squashed completely. (ala NVIDIA and Crypto)

I reserve the right to jump back into HUYA at a later date!

With IQ, I have only to say "Vinceroooooooooooooooo!" I think today's down day will be erased in short order.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I benched HUYA a few days ago at about $46. I reserve the right to put it back in, but it needs a breather, 54% in 6 days.

Still have the cash from that sell. Going to give this trade thing a few days and see how it shakes out. Not selling a thing.

Thinking of adding to NVDA and TTD or looking hard at JDizzle. They remind me a lot of MELI only at a really compelling value, but I’m not looking to add more companies so I will have to chop something. And I like everything.

Darth
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No. of Recommendations: 7
by the way, I am not so self-absorbed to think I have some massive audience that needs to hear my every thought on a stock or my port moves.

You could have fooled me... 😇

Denny Schlesinger
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No. of Recommendations: 3
In a surprise move (given all I just said above) PVTL came off the waiver wire as an undrafted FA to leapfrog over the Tier 2 group and land right into Tier 1/1.5 range. WoW! What can I say, I am a big believer in all things multi-cloud/hybrid cloud, which is part of why I still like NTNX long-term too. There aren't many vendors the size of PVTL or NTNX you can invest in, as most of the other players are much more mature and larger companies that have other large (slower growing) business segments, so they don't interest me as stock plays: VMware, HPE, DellEMC (if public), Cisco, etc...


Sounds similar to my quick shift in thinking from having an order in just before close to sell a portion of my PVTL calls position just before their earnings announcement to my plan as of now to let the full position exercise into shares (which means I'll need to be sure to have the cash ready for that and may further cull some positions in coming months.....maybe even taking a loss on NKTR before letting it play out).

volfan84
long PVTL calls & NTNX shares......and who also sometimes posts in a manner as if there may be folks out there that would pay attention to my opinions on companies/stocks
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No. of Recommendations: 0
What I mean is will some analyst ask Jeff Green on ER call about impact of China business, and will Green say anything that the market could interpret as a headwind? TTD brings US brands to China, but if China throws up retaliatory restrictions that put a damper on this...hmmm.

TTD’s current clients (ad agencies) are likely using TTD to bring products to China, but I wouldn’t be so sure it stops there. TTD has had offices in China for some time now and I recall Green saying he’d be spending more time there than anywhere. They may be looking to advertising domestic (Chinese) products as well.

My gut says this is a non-issue...

Agreed. Green believes China will be very big for them in 5 years or so, but it is a small piece now. Little blips here and there don’t affect the long term thesis.

One obstacle could, of course, be the Chinese want all of TTD’s technology. That on the other hand may be catastrophic for their business in China. Trump’s tariffs...I don’t think so.

A.J.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
One obstacle could, of course, be the Chinese want all of TTD’s technology. That on the other hand may be catastrophic for their business in China. Trump’s tariffs...I don’t think so.

A.J.

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But isnt that sort of irrelevant to the investment thesis as TTD value is mostly in being a vehicle by which US brands invest (via ad rev) in China?

There is a China company called iPinU that i think it TTD equivalent. I saw hint they may go ipo a year back but no news blurbs lately.
http://en.ipinyou.com

Their website claims 59% market share as largest dsp in china. I want in on that ipo, as i dont think there are walled gardens in china like with fb and googl in US.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
But isnt that sort of irrelevant to the investment thesis as TTD value is mostly in being a vehicle by which US brands invest (via ad rev) in China?

Not sure I understand what is irrelevant. If TTD is forced to hand over their tech to the Chinese, I would think they would say, “No”. In that case, it would be lights out in that country.

I’m not sure the value TTD provides is only applicable to US corporations selling goods. Why would their technology not work in other countries for their goods? Yes, they are primarily selling through ad agencies in much of the world. But they aren’t limited to them and do have some direct relationships. I have zero clue what the Chinese ad market looks like. Are there agencies? Dunno. I don’t think it matters though as they have proven themselves a leader in the field. But if China doesn’t want them, or TTD won’t stipulate to their terms, China won’t have them and another may take their place in that country.

All of that said, I’m not sure this will be a huge problem for TTD in the long run. Not suggesting what it may do to the stock price near term.

A.J.
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No. of Recommendations: 4
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/investing/2017...

From tmf interview of Green:

Green: Yeah, so the landscape in every one of these countries is different than the United States, and I do think that American companies will often make the mistake of thinking that one size fits all, or that the leverage that they have in the U.S. can translate there. And I think that's especially true in B2C companies. So you know, unlike a Facebook trying to go into China, or an Uber trying to go into China, where you're essentially trying to get Chinese consumers to fall in love with a Silicon Valley brand.

And I think something that people don't often understand is, neither Chinese businesses nor the Chinese government want to see companies take money out of China when there's a totally viable alternative inside of China. And so the thing that is really different about our business is that, you'll recall, we're the ones writing checks to the big publishers. So we go to the Chinese market with sort of step one being to create great relationships with companies like Baidu and Alibaba and Tencent. And to create relationships with the big media companies.

So when we go in with a pitch that is essentially, we're not trying to take money out of China -- in fact, the opposite. We're trying to bring advertising spend from big multinational brands, like KFC, or Mercedes, or Pepsi, or Coke, to take these big brands and help them spend money on these big publishers in China. It's much, much easier to partner then, because we're bringing money to China instead of the other way around. And we're not trying to win consumers' hearts and minds to our brand. We're instead just trying to help these other big multinational brands service that market more effectively.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
by the way, I am not so self-absorbed to think I have some massive audience that needs to hear my every thought on a stock or my port moves. Outside of the rare talk with the old man this past weekend, I don't talk stocks with anyone,

You obviously talk to some folks ;)

So what were the basic issues with NTNX so we can ferret out if this is a pervasive problem.

What alternative did the customer have or go to......DELL and VMWare?
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Thanks Dreamer. Certainly part of the strategy is to bring brands into China. Those can be from all over the world and the base is currently small. Maybe US brands will take a short term hit due to tariffs. Another part of the strategy after creating relationships with the media and internet giants may be to work with Chinese brands. That is all I was saying really.

Finally, we don’t know where the tariffs are headed nor how long any trade war will last. While negating China from the TTD equation would reduce the TAM, we are still talking about hundreds of billions world wide.

I just don’t think it is a real long term concern.

A.J.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
So what were the basic issues with NTNX so we can ferret out if this is a pervasive problem.

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Their narrative is their software can run on other vendor servers vs just the appliances (super micro whitebox servers) they started selling their hci product with.

They have a history with dell and lenovo joint solutions. Should be good there.

The problem was with another server vendor and getting the software to work as advertised based on the sizer and ref architecture specs nutanix provides. Not going to say more and hopefully it was an oddity based on a couple variables that arent likely to be repeated elsewhere.

But when i heard this and remembered they also delayed their Xi offering because engineering it was tougher than they anticipated, i started to wonder if sales/execs are overpromising what engineering can do or at least how quickly. Are they pushing the SaaS/cloud narrative too fast?

I still think they are on right track, but resetting my risk level with them.

Pivotal, otoh, already works in complex multicloud. They just need the sales piece to ramp.

I think it is easier to improve your sales culture than to wish your engineering to improve.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
PVTL is DELL and NTNX battles DELL through VMWare.

It is tough to both root for and root against the same company.....DELL.....COMPETE owners of PVTL and VMware.....admittedly part of my more conflicted assessment of PVTL......they are simply not an independent company.

I will look if there are other posted comments about NTNX and generic server issues......
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