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Tim, that 8% of U.S. production only translates to about .5% of world production. World production tends to dictate oil prices.

World spare capacity more like.

And 400kbpd represents 10-20% of spare capacity, aside from the fact that the most likely places for US refineries to replace North Slope production are a long tanker ride away so there are time issues and tanker fleet issues. So it's a bit more important than you make out, at least for US refineries. But the latest news seems to be that only half the field will be out of action, so you're getting back to more manageable numbers - it's a similar hit to losing the recently repaired Mars platform in the GoM.

As an aside, I'm surprised to see Brent ahead of WTI again - that's usually a sign for a pair trade until WTI regains the usual $2-3 advantage. The Dubai differential is also looking pretty small at the moment.
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