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No. of Recommendations: 6
Time to put BMW on the endangered list.

Time to put all ICE incumbents on the endangered list until they start making EVs from the ground up, they can keep their logos but that's about all they can keep. There are so many areas of innovation and disruption that retrofitting ICE platforms just does not pay off.

It's not just all the new stuff Tesla is coming up with but the 800 pound monkeys on the backs of ICE incumbents that make the transition for them very difficult and painful maybe the most difficult being trashing the old fashioned assembly lines and even some newfangled robots. They have a lot of unamortized plant and equipment to deal with that upstarts don't have.

I'm reminded of the very first professional computer program I did in 1960. It was such a piece of crap that I could not follow the logic to debug it. I threw the whole box of cards in the trash and all my co-workers thought I had gone mad but it turned out well, the brand new version had a much simpler structure I could follow and debug. A lesson for a lifetime. Incumbents have the same issue of sunken costs but not just hours of coding time but huge debts on obsolete plant and equipment.

Many ICE cars have razor thin margins after decades of competition. Their new EVs have negative margins and incentives that drive up demand just increase their losses. If Chrysler and GM went bankrupt even before the arrival of EVs, imagine the coming carnage.

Denny Schlesinger
very long TSLA
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