With CNXS starting to climb the hill a little bit again, I thought itwould be prudent to look back at the recent decline and see if there areany perspectives to be taken from it.Firstly, here's a badly formatted table (sorry, I'm format ignorant) ofthe recent activity, lifted from Yahoo's Historical Prices link:Date Open Hi Lo Close Vol Adj Cl.=================================================17-Feb-04 13.73 13.80 13.00 13.16 189,200 13.16 13-Feb-04 12.85 12.95 12.76 12.82 83,800 12.82 12-Feb-04 12.60 12.94 12.50 12.75 74,500 12.75 11-Feb-04 12.55 12.80 12.43 12.47 138,300 12.47 10-Feb-04 12.46 12.54 12.30 12.47 89,300 12.47 9-Feb-04 11.80 12.30 11.62 12.30 107,000 12.30 6-Feb-04 11.47 12.36 11.20 11.79 75,900 11.79 5-Feb-04 11.26 11.50 11.25 11.26 75,600 11.26 4-Feb-04 11.21 11.50 11.20 11.29 85,700 11.29 3-Feb-04 12.30 12.30 11.12 11.43 117,200 11.43 2-Feb-04 12.31 12.44 11.97 12.13 55,200 12.13 30-Jan-04 12.15 12.45 12.10 12.23 56,000 12.23 29-Jan-04 12.35 12.57 12.17 12.34 100,200 12.34 28-Jan-04 12.60 12.68 12.39 12.50 112,700 12.50 27-Jan-04 12.54 12.70 12.40 12.50 171,200 12.50 26-Jan-04 12.95 12.95 12.50 12.54 195,200 12.54 23-Jan-04 13.75 13.76 11.76 12.70 199,700 12.70 22-Jan-04 14.22 14.48 13.75 13.82 44,200 13.82 The huge volume spike in late January obviously shows that a fund (orhuge indiv. investor) found something more interesting to invest in,and wanted to free up some funds ... and quickly! This, in turn,created several days of opportunity in early Feb (limited funds forinvesting prevented me from adding to my stake ... my personal lesson).Now, someone is starting to buy it up again, driving it past 13, andeven close to 14 at one point.So, who cares about the market in a one-month span? Aren't we supposedto ignore the short term, and focus on the long run?I think for smaller stocks, the short term can be chock full of lessonsas far as buying opportunities, since a major movement from one or afew investors can move the price quite a bit. One can never tell whichinvestors with huge positions can suddenly decide:1.) They've got a better stock idea over 3-5 years than CNXS, so they want to move quickly.2.) The quarterly report didn't float their boat (an overreaction to the seasonality of Japan?)3.) Those Fiber Choice tablets are nasty ... this product will fail!4.) Gotta put the down payment on the new mansion, and CNXS was their tenth best stock idea.The lesson is ... who knows? And, if you believe the stock has notchanged fundamentally, then you can also say ... who cares? ... andtake some of your free cash and buy more. The trick is having a good feel for the company, the business, it'strends (Japan seasonality, etc), and it's management (as much as an IIcan). If you don't have a good feel, just remember the originalrecommendation and follow-up reports from Hidden Gems to back you up,not to mention your fellow HG posters who own CNXS. If you don't wantto monitor the short-term fluctuations, just set up a stock price alertto let you know when someone is bailing at a high rate.Okay ... I'm outta breath ... recovering ... okay, I'm good. With some of the concern a few weeks ago about the stock tanking, Ithought it would be good for us to try to discuss this so that we canlearn and maybe not get to concerned the next time one of our stocksdrops 20%-30% with no rhyme or reason.Best regards,Tom
It's down on double volume - not a good sign. Looks like its going down to fill the gap from Tuesday and will probably fill the gap at $12.50 from a few days earlier.But of course this is short term....
Tom -So, who cares about the market in a one-month span? Aren't we supposed to ignore the short term, and focus on the long run?That's why it takes me so long to choose stocks. I avoid the ones that will keep me awake at night. On the same note, when I buy a stock and it proceeds to drop 20% after my purchase, I focus on the long-term. As long as nothing bad has happened to the business fundamentals, I'm prepared to ride the small-cap rollercoaster.This, in turn, created several days of opportunity in early Feb (limited funds for investing prevented me from adding to my stake ... my personal lesson).That was a personal lesson of mine too. I've since had the strategy of keeping a decent cash position reserved for special buying situations. And it doesn't bother me if I'm earning little or no interest -- my patience tends to pay off.I'm not expecting gigantic annual returns from CNXS, but I am expecting it to easily beat the market over the next three years. I like the non-controversial products they make, the possibility of new products, and the potential of being acquired; thus benefitting shareholders.--Offramp
Offramp, That was a personal lesson of mine too. I've since had the strategy of keeping a decent cash position reserved for special buying situations. And it doesn't bother me if I'm earning little or no interest -- my patience tends to pay off. I agree ... I've found myself spread out a little thin with HG recommendationsat this point, but that's okay. That's part of learning process. I'mlearning not to feel the need to constantly keep excess cash in themarket, as opportunities will eventually present themselves. I'm not expecting gigantic annual returns from CNXS, but I am expecting it to easily beat the market over the next three years. I like the non-controversial products they make, the possibility of new products, and the potential of being acquired; thus benefitting shareholders. I have similar expectations. When you can buy shares at a great price(like, below $12), it simply increases your chances of beating themarket (good ol' margin of safety).Always good to exchange a little banter with a fellow Cubs fan (Maddux!)Regards,Tom
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