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Tinker, did you even read my post?
And how can anyone in late 2007 be posting solely Y2k posts and expect to be taken seriously? Particularly when I've already pointed out - in many posts the past two years - how AMSC has evolved in just the last 24-36 months. And you're going back solely to Y2k? You gotta be kiddin' me. You can't even go back to Y2k solely on a company like GE and draw any direct extrapolations. It's - frankly - just plain dumb.

I'll take one more breath and address a couple of things - if you're interested. But we've had a couple of good discussions - intelligent, fact-based assessments - the last year or two on the company; based on research; on visiting the company and talking to the CEO, CFO, and others; of researching the few other companies involved here. And - while this may disappoint a tad - it's all circa 2006-2007. Going over the posts the past 24 months of W.D. Crotty/dduct, and frankly, myself, would be one place for you to start- if you're truly interested in boning up on the company a little.

I will state for a fact that the 2g wire was suppose to be the impetus for AMSC to penetrate the market.

No, that's not correct. The 'penetration' was to be done - completely - with one g wire; and that original schedule had one g wire dominating not only through this year, but to and beyond 2010. Remember that 2g wire was originally not in the plan as being necessary, at all, to initial profitability and penetration. That turned out to be wrong on a couple of accounts:
- by all accounts, through 2004, 2g wire was perceived as a necessary requirement for a long-term economic perspective for power line applications only.
- 1-g wire was considered economic in supermachine applications; ie,
- SuperVar rotating machines for the grid; ie, "grid shock absorbers'.
- large ship motors; and, large ship generators.

- It was recognized - up through 2004 - that 1-g solely as power cable was going to be uneconomic, since it had cheap copper to compete against. The 2004 time period started to change that economic equation, of course, as the price of most raw materials - and especially copper - started to skyrocket. After all, when AMSC was first started in the late '80s, there was no truly spectacular growth in China and India yet; those companies didn't dominate in demand for raw materials. None of that was foreseen; certainly not to the extent it has really happened.
So the need for second generation wire became clear; i.e, that wire more cheaply produced than 1-g, which would be economic even in straight power cable applications head to head with cheap power. BUT, it was recognized, then, that 2g wire would not be as good electrical performance wise as 1-g wire; just cheaper.

That's what changed in 2005: long-term DOE R&D funding, as well as AMSC's own producibility work, made it clear for the first time that 2 g wire could not only be produced - but that it probably could be produced in volume, and performance-wise even approach that of 1-g wire. The company then made its 2nd big strategic change: seeing that 2g wire could, with a full court press, be brought on years earlier than thought- and be just as good as 1-g wire - AMSC made the gutsy move to scrap 1-g wire entirely. and focus on bringing forward the new, improved, 2-g wire sooner, not later. The entire 1-g wire was written down to zero; the remaining inventory has been sold off slowly over time, with about 179k meters currently left on the floor in Massachusetts. That old, abandoned, one-g wire is what is being referred to in those ancient - and, now irrelevant - Y2k postings that you cite.

It was also recognized when announced that this shift - while bringing true, HTS economic profitability forward - would in the years immediately following 2005 look like a downturn, since they would not be manufacturing and selling new 1-g wire. They were very upfront about that. I think that it's clear now in 2007 that they made the right decision in 2005, And by most accounts they are probably the current leaders in the world in 2-g producibility - and a 2-g producibility that's ahead of the original curves. (In fact, it's ahead of where they were predicting when they made the strategic shift: then, they said that they thought they could get to producing 360k meters/year of 2-g wire by Dec. 2007. Now, it looks like by that date they will be at the 720k meters/year level. Not bad at all).

(The first big strategic shift by AMSC, by the way, was diversifying into the non-superconcuting power systems business. Something that diversified the company while HTS was being fully developed; and that played into the very real need for electrical power quality increases as well as infrastructure revitalization. It was extremely prescient: that purchase by AMSC led, eventually, to the last two acquisitions of the past 12 months - including that of Windtec. Post the acquisitions, that power systems business now is growing at 100%/year; and will bring the entire company to EBIDTAS positive next year. And the company is, right now, a 65% wind company - something not envisioned at all back in those ancient Y2k posts you cite).

I don't recall what ate for sure, but I believe 2003/2004, AMSC would be rolling out x miles of wire, blah, blah, blah.

You're correct, that's all 'blah'. Because you're referring to old 1-g wire production, which it was announced in 2005 would be abandoned in favor of 2g. That was the gutsy -and, it looks like, correct - decision. By solely focusing on outdated Y2k posts, you've totally missed the point that the (old) product your talking about is no longer even in production. (Which turns out to be a good thing - as they projected).


I can't address CREE. I don't know anything about it. Either.

Cheers,

jp
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