No. of Recommendations: 2
To explain, let me go back to red and white marbles and random sampling.

Uh oh, it's those marbles again. You better watch out - Elan's never wrong when it gets down to the marble level.

Here are two possible conclusions:
1. The ratio of white to red marbles in the bag is probably close to 3:2.
2. You have a good chance of picking five white marbles on your first try, but not on other tries.
Which conclusion sounds more plausible?


Exactly. Trust Elan when marbles are at issue :-). You've likely found nothing more than a mirage, and we're trying to do a favor by poking holes in it.

- Jamie
Print the post  

Announcements

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.