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Tom,

I like to think of the Internet in the context of highways. As roads were built, the quality had to be constantly improved to first accomodate wagons, then slow-speed automobiles, and ultimately high-speed automobiles. A comparable analogy will surely fit the growth of the Internet to meet the changing needs of the world using it.

When Moore speaks of the Internet as the mother of all tornados, the Internet itself may be knocking down just one or two bowling pins at the moment. The opportunity is so massive that it's easy for us to confuse the massive growth with that of a tornado, when I suspect that it has barely crossed the chasm.

So, how dependent is the take-up of these types of products by businesses, on the robustness of the Web?

Very dependent.

What is the level of implementation complexity, which is as much about breaking old habits, at the user end in getting business partners and consumers to use the Web as the primary means of communication and how much does this effect adoption?

The complexity is not just the barrier; it is also the cause of the pain. When the pain is severe enough, people will change their ways with the help of new products.

The products that will have the easiest time of getting adopted will be those that are the most continuous for the end user. With each product category that is only ever so slightly discontinuous for the end user, we'll gradually migrate across a rather wide spectrum of product categories that compared to the way we live today will look very discontinuous. But because we'll get there with incremental levels of slight discontinuity, it will be percieved as being more continuous than discontinuous.

I hope I'm right about all the above. If I'm not, my decision to invest solely in technology for the next thirty years if I'm fortunate enough to live that long will prove to be a horrible decision.

--Mike Buckley

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