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Tom, If you believe in contrarian indicators, then we might not have too much longer to be waiting on the sidelines, waiting to go to work. ZeroHedge reports that "Americans Have Never Been More Confident That Stocks Are Going Higher". https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-30/americans-have-nev...One can argue with the data cited and how to interpret it, but here's a chart I do believe in. http://www.pilotwm.com/pilot-wealth-management/2014/03/32513... And here's how I interpret that chart. In every market --not just "the market", which is a media fiction of convenience-- there are four groups of players: the fast money, the smart money, the big money, and the dumb money. The fast money are the traders who are constantly probing, looking to catch a trend, and quick to reverse. The smart money is prescient about spotting a sustainable trend, and they get in early. The big money are the institutionals, who come in a bit later and massively so, solidifying the trend. The dumb money is the average small investor, who is late to the trade, and to whom the smart money is only too happy to sell to as they lock in profits and go looking for their next big thing. A name you probably remember is Stan Weinstein and his work on stage analysis. The current market is late Stage Three and a bit early to be getting broadly short. But one advantage we'll have this time compared to earlier years is the huge number of inverse ETFs there are. Due to their typical composite nature, they should trend well, and there won't be a borrowing problem. Arindam
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